July 2nd – Horse Racing TopPunter Top Tip
TopPunter likes to keep its best information for its paying and Free Month subscribers, however, on rare occaisions we like to share the love with those searching the web and coming across our site. We have an outstanding record when we have done this rarely missing a winner. Usually we will only give one horse but this time its 2.
The first horse has been in great form with a super impressive win at Flemington a few weeks ago and the start before that it took on the very talented Our Baby Bonus and wasn’t disgraced being beaten only 0.8 lengths at Mooney Valley.
1.35pm – Mooney Valley Race 3 – 1. SUNDAY ROSE
The second horse on the blocks is racing at Rosehill and is in love with the track with back to back wins in its last 2 starts here. It also has no problems handling the wet with an impressive record in that category as well
2.28pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 1. TRIPLE ELENGANCE
TopPunter Weekend Review
another fantastic weekend for TopPunter subscribers with 3 of our 4 selections winning. We were incredibly unlucky with the 4th selection who looked all over a winner (Was matched at $1.01 in running on Betfair) before just being pipped on the post.
Winners included Shadrach at Morphettville ($7.50), Two Hills at Flemington ($9.20) and Graceful Anna at the Gold Coast ($3.00).
Graceful Anna was posted on the website as our TopPunter Tip of the Day which has had a stunning record every time we have posted a tip on here.
So far this month our Horse Managed Fund has increased a whopping 27% and we hope that continues for the rest of the month. For more information please email me at brad@toppunter.net
May 7th – TopPunter Tip of the Day
It’s been a while between TopPunter Tip of the Day’s as i do like to save the majority of our tips for our subscribers but we have a fantastic record with the Tip of the Day selections and i thought we might share this weekends tip with everyone.
GOLD COAST RACE 5 – 3. GRACEFUL ANNA
This horse is undefeated at this track with 1 win from its only start and showed enough in her close defeat by Temple of Boom last start that it still is in top form and will appreciate the step up to 1200m as well.
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TopPunter Managed Fund
I’ve had a number of questions recently about the TopPunter Managed Fund’s so thought i would do a public post to give people a little bit more information. (A more detailed run down on how everything works is possible by emailing me at brad@toppunter.net
We have 2 different funds at TopPunter (Horse Racing and Sports). Both funds are independant of each other and clients are free to depoist into one or both depending on what there preference is. Every client is sent an email of every bet (before the event) so you can check for authenticity and keep your own records if you wished. At the end of the month clients are sent a detailed rundown on how many bets we had and how each of the funds performed. Clients are free to withdraw any funds at the end of every month should they not wish to continue or if they want to skim a little of the winnings off the top.
In recent months the Horse Racing Fund has been the big performer while Sports has been a bit disapointing over the Summer.
Here is an example of how we have performed in recent times.
OCTOBER
27 Bets with 13 winners (48% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 42%
NOVEMBER
34 Bets with 13 winners (38% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 29%
DECEMBER
44 Bets with 13 winners (30% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 3%
JANUARY
34 Bets with 13 winners (38% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 27%
FEBRUARY
32 Bets with 10 winners (31% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 14%
MARCH
30 Bets with 16 winners (53% Strikerate)
Managed Fund increased 38%
**If you had deposited $1000 into the Horse Managed Fund in October then your fund would now be worth over $3700. Thats a $2700 profit in just 6 months!
For more information email me at brad@toppunter.net to ask any questions.
April 10th – AJC Derby Day (Horse Racing)
Once again rain puts a bit of a dampener on a great Randwick meeting.
We start with a real superstar on the rise in Al DHAFRA which would’ve been a bet bar the price. As I’ve stated a number of times I don’t like betting below $1.70 and I certainly am not keen to take on a $1.60 especially in the wet with no wet track experience. The breeding suggests it won’t be a problem but not worth the risk.
Race 2 sees our first bet of the day in MILITARY GIRL mainly due to the price. She can handle the track and with the rail in the true position there should be no leader bias. I think there are a couple of better chances in the race but at the big odds it was too good to resist. Maybe worth a triffecta with EUROPA POINT, VERBALLED and FLOWERCHILD.
The Group 3 McMahon Memorial Stakes is a very solid field which I will be watching with interest. MADAME PEDRILLE went to South Australia to contest the Group 1 Sangster and would have to be disappointed with its performance. After hitting the lead at the top of the straight the horse failed to finish off and was swamped in the final 100m. However, it has got a great record at Randwick and it loves the wet meaning it wouldn’t surprise to see it come out on top here. It does meet some very stiff opposition in MELITO and BEADED how are in red hot form at the moment.
The Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes is again a cracking field with some of the best sprinters in Australia contesting. HOT DANISH loves the Easter rain and always goes well on a wet track here while there has been very strong support for WANTED fresh off its win in the Group 1 Newmarket at Flemington. It is interesting to note it is carrying more weight than it has in its last 5 starts including a 5.5kg increase from the Newmarket win. It also doesn’t have the strongest record on wet tracks. MIC MAC has always performed well 1st up and should be right in this. Is untried on really wet tracks but did run a very close 5th to last week’s winner in DANLEIGH only a few starts ago.
Race 5 is a lottery and worth going really wide in a triffecta here. I would have to include GOLD WATER, SAINTHOOD, RECOUP DE FORTUNE and MARTIN PLACE (Massive odds at $51 for this horse).
I thought a few other horses would contest the Group 1 Sires Produce in the 6th but they have elected to pass. This leaves HINCHINBROOK a pretty solid selection after running on strongly in the Golden Slipper last weekend. The extra furlong will definitely help and its going to take a good run to beat him. The hot favourite is MORE STRAWBERRIES that many believe only lost the Slipper last weekend because Damien Oliver went for an inside run where the track was apparently worse off. Oliver has been dumped from the horse for Nash Rawiller who is known to give every horse the best chance so maybe worth going again (but not for me at that price). I have kept an eye on MAFIA MISS this season and I am expecting the extra distance and wet track will help.
The big race of the day is the 3rd Group 1 in the AJC Derby. Early favourite ZABRASIVE has been a little easy in betting even though it was strong in its win of the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas last start. I like SHOOT OUT but I think the trainer has bitten off more than he can chew here. Forget its last run when it didn’t get any favours as this horse loves the Randwick surface more with wins from its last 2 starts here. The step up to 2400m is a bit too ambitious but I’ll be keen to see how it handles it. I still like the look of EXTRA ZERO even at the huge odds. Don’t bet the farm on it but I would include I in any multiples you wish to put on. There has been a lot of support for Group 1 winning MONACO CONSUL after its return from an unsuccessful New Zealand campaign. I can’t see it right now but this horse has class on its side. ROCK CLASSIC hasn’t run a bad race in its last 5 starts so I would expect it to be somewhere abouts at the end. COUNT ENCOSTA has put 3 on the trot since winning its maiden in a lowly 1400m race at Kembla 3 starts back. Each time it has stepped up in class and distance and finished like a steam train to take the prize. Again up in distance and class here but a win wouldn’t shock at good odds.
I almost made HARRIS TWEED an each way bet in the 8th. It took on a better field in the BMW last start and I am expecting continued improvement with its 2nd run back in Australia this preparation. NO WINE NO SONG has also been battling the big boys so would enjoy this slight drop in class. The wet will be playing right into its hands as well as an perfect record of 3 wins from 3 starts at the track and distance. I think early favourite PRECEDENCE is worth a risk and could be worth laying. I doubt the price will stay low by the time the race kicks off and I wouldn’t even be surprised if it isn’t favourite by the time they jump. GET UP JUDE gets in very well at the weights and loves the rain so if the track stays wet this is definitely one of the multiples or a nice leg for a BIG 6.
I will not bet in the last with favourite SPEEDY NATALIE in the race. This horse is impossible to find and even the fact that it has been very strongly supported in betting I can’t bring myself to get involved. After buck jumping last start at Morphettville you are game to take the $2.25 on offer for a horse who has had only 1 start at the Randwick surface for an 8th.
All up not a bad day considering the track conditions. But beware. These meeting are notoriously dangerous and I would be more inclined to bet at Eagle Farm which looks to be a fairly straight forward card.
Our bets are:
12.30pm – Randwick Race 2 – 11. MILITARY GIRL (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
12.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 1 – 1. PYRAMIDS (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
1.19pm – Eagle Farm Race 2 – 4. CONQUEERING QUEEN (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.40pm – Flemington Race 5 – 5. SOUNDS OF NATURE (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.30pm – Eagle Farm Race 7 – 6. CASHOLET (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Betting Agency Promotions
With Golden Slipper day on tomorrow many of you should be searching around the different betting agencies for promotions on offer as you could end up betting with their money in the number of FREE bets there are on offer. To take advantage of these offers simply click the respective banner.
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Betfair as usual will give you the best odds of any of the agencies. It does take some time to learn how to use it but once you do it is such a valuable tool to use. The other advantage of Betfair at the moment is the fact you can bet in-running on all Metropolitan meetings. That means you can bet right up to the finishing post!
SportsBet has been a huge favourite of mine for a long time now with its crazy promotions that make it difficult not to get a FREE bet in some shape or form. If you don’t already have an account then if you join today you get your first bet FREE (up to the value of $100). So if you bet $100 on any race you will get $100 refunded back into your account. Plus you get another FREE bet of up to $100 based on the average of your next 10 bets.
Add to that the easter promotions of:
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2. Cinderella’s Golden Slipper Refund:
Back a horse to Win or Each way, if the Slipper doesn’t fit, and your horse finishes 2nd in the Golden Slipper race, your bet stake will be refunded as cash into your Sportsbet account.
IASBet is slowly gaining ground on SportsBet and hass some great promotions in store for Golden Slipper day. Join today and deposit $50 and get $100 bonus. Just click on the banner below and use the promotion code FREEBET.
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3. Have a crack at this 4 leg Multi and we’ll add an extra 25% bonus to your winnings!
Your multi must consist of:
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4. Any NRL Round 4 Head to Head bet.
April 2nd – Golden Slipper Day
Golden Slipper day has arrived and unfortunately so has the rain. The track at Rosehill is currently a Heavy 8 but they are expecting to upgrade to a Dead 7 at some stage today. I find Rosehill a funny track at times and definitely track form is key here.
We start in race 2 for the Schweppervescence Stakes and I’m glad to see that the owners of ZUTARA didn’t try and compete for the Slipper as the horse just can’t sprint that quickly. Without doubt this horse is going to win some races as it gets over a mile and longer. Today it races over 1400m and I think it’s a strong chance with the way it has been finishing off its races and with Nash Rawiller back on board you are going to get the best run for your money. Untried on the wet ground but the Encosta De Lago horses usually get through it well.
The first Group 1 of the day (Vinery Stud Stakes) is a great field and it’s hard to know where to look. I do like how RUN FOR NAARA is finishing off her races but she would have to be ridden well to find a good spot after drawing barrier 14. FAINT PERFUME was a class performer in last year’s spring carnival as well but both these horses haven’t gone that well at the Rosehill track or in the wet. INDIAN OCEAN could run a cheeky race at around $67.
Back to back Group 1’s are upon us with the running of the Queen of the Turf Stakes. Again the track plays a major part in this race with the Supper Filly TYPHOON TRACY the hot favourite. Typhoon Tracy is untried on the wet going and it is the only concern for a horse that has taken all before it again this season. Here it meets some horses who are proven in the wet and the track so this will be a test if it’s not on its a game. Notable mentions are NEROLI, MONTANA FLYER and MORE JOYOUS.
Group 1 number 3 is next with the BMW set over 2400m. Favourite THESEO is a big favourite of mine but I just can’t see it being able to run out a solid 2400m against this quality of field. HARRIS TWEED is well placed here and I am very tempted to get on board at the $9.00 mark but wouldn’t mind seeing it have one run in Australia this preparation before backing him (A lot of ticks is his box here though).
The George Ryder Stakes is Group 1 number 4 for the day and I can’t believe DANLEIGH has been installed as favourite. Although it beat Rangirangdoo a few starts ago and Rangi has gone on to frank that form but the very next start it had every opportunity to win the race after having a great ride and didn’t finish it off. Meets a much better field here too. I was leaning towards BLACK PIRANHA, HEART OF DREAMS and VISION AND POWER before scrolling right to the bottom with TICKETS who should run a great race of tidy odds of $17.
The GOLDEN SLIPPER is the 5th Group 1 race of the day and as always this is a tough race to read. The way MILITARY ROSE won last start it is easy to see how she has been given the favouritism tag but I never like taking the short odds in a slipper race as these horses are generally still pretty green and especially with the state of the track anything could really happen. HITCHINBROOK was beaten by one of the more fancied runners in BRIGHT EXPECTATIONS last start but I prefer to look at the previous time they met on a wet track when Hitchinbrook came home first and looked a strong Slipper contender. I told subscribers to get on BENETEAU a long time ago and I still haven’t given up on him. Should handle the track and will be running home late. I am still amazed that CHANCE BYE is not shorter in the market than the $13 being offered. This horse has beaten all opposition in its 3 starts to date in commanding fashion and with 2 of those runs being at Rosehill I think she is a major player again here. Will be right up on the hot speed and will be tough to gun down when the whips are cracking down the straight. I can’t believe there is money coming for SOLAR CHARGED after its performance last weekend. I’ll be laying that one. GEORGETTE SILK got involved in a ridiculous speed battle last weekend and will be all the better for it this week. Just ran out of condition in the final 100m, which was to be expected, but now comes in here at the huge odds of $67 and with wet form under its belt.
SWIFT ALLIANCE came very close to being our 2nd bet of the day at Rosehill but I’m just a little worried about the favourite in WELKOM GOLD along with the bottom 2 horses in MORE THAN GREAT and ALTERED BOY who all get it very well with the weights.
Caulfield look like one of those dangerous meetings to me. Bet there with caution. Eagle Farm didn’t really spark any interest for me. Over at Ascot we have some really great races starting with the Gimcrack Stakes which sees some of the best young talent in the west in MOTION PICTURES, TIME TO CLIMB and MISS CONDITION battle each other. I’m sure this will be a great form race later on. MARASCO gets a chance to strut his stuff again in the 5th race and I think the bookies have this spot on with the big gelding an extremely short favourite. Was great to see him win so well a fortnight ago in the Group 3 Hyperion and I can only hope this is the sign that he’s got his head back in the game.
Our Early Mail is:
12.25pm – Rosehill Race 2 – 2. ZUTARA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
12.35pm – Eagle Farm Race 1 – 2. CORNWELL PARK (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.05pm – Caulfield Race 4 – 7. DEFINITELY READY (Horse Managed Fund 5% win) *we’ll take the fixed odds of $1.80 now.
2.55pm – Oakbank Race 5 – 1. TRAMUNTANA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
5.10pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 5. NETRA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
6.55pm – Ascot Race 6 – 3. SIGNIFICANT (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
TopPunter Racing Update
TopPunter subscribers have been receiving a superb Horse Racing service in recent times and today was no exception. Since TopPunter changed to the percentage based system the Managed Fund (Which follows exactly the tips sent out to subscribers) has seen subscribers make huge gains.
Today we gave 7 selections and finished with 4 winners and 2 seconds. Using the percentage based system our Horse Managed Fund made a 28% profit on today alone!
Here was today’s Early Mail tips:
2.10pm – Sandown Race 2 – 1. PAINT IT BLACK (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) WINNER $3.20
3.02pm – Warrick Farm Race 4 – 7. FLASHING AURA (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way) 3rd $2.70 place
3.40pm – Warrick Farm Race 5 – 3. ALBERTINELLI (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win) 2nd
4.20pm – Warrick Farm Race 6 – 12. VIVA LAS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win) WINNER $5.90
5.00pm – Warrick Farm Race 7 – 11. BOHEMIAN SPIRIT (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win) Unplaced
5.48pm – Eagle Farm Race 9 – 5. RED RAIDERS (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way) WINNER $6.60 / $1.90
This was all topped of by a Late Mail email going out during the afternoon with:
4.08pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 4. FINE CALIBRE (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win) WINNER $2.50
Another great day and we hope it all continues again tomorrow.
For more information on our tipping process or for a FREE month trial just sign up on the main page or email brad@toppunter.net for more information.
March 5th – Horse Racing
Once again the TopPunter Team has decided to share the knowledge with everyone on such a great days racing.
What a cracking days racing we have in store for us tomorrow. Obviously the main big races are at Flemington with 3 Group 1 events (Australia Cup, Newmarket and Australian Guineas) but Warrick Farm has put on a great meeting to really challenge it for class.
It gets off to a flying start with the opening race being a good test for the distance horses and I think we are on a real winner with our Early Mail selection in STRIKE ONE. The first Group race of the day for Warrick Farm is the Group 2 Surround Stakes and it is hands down MORE JOYOUS to the winning post. I expect to see more improvement from the talented youngster RUN FOR NAARA who should continue to improve as she goes up in distance. Connections of LITTLE SURFER GIRL have said they will be patient with here as well and expect to see large improvements in the coming weeks there. The Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes is usually a solid lead in event for the Golden Slipper in a few weeks time but I think the field is not as strong as in previous years. I am keen on GEORGETTE SILK as a Slipper contender so to prove me right it would have to put up a strong performance against one of the slipper favourites in SOLAR CHARGED. The 6th is the big one of the day for NSW in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes and what a field they have put together. Chris Waller trains the 2 favourites in RANGIRANGDOO and DANLEIGH and it is likely that they will fight out the finish again. However, I’m not convinced this track suits either horse even though they both possess the fast sprint needed if you end up back in the field at the turn. I would definitely lean more towards Rangi than Danleigh if you forced me though. I think THESEO could really surprise with a great barrier draw almost certainly meaning he’ll be right there on the finishing turn. A number of the outsiders could easily finish the winner if they get the right run. Definitely one to watch and not throw your money away. The Group 3 City Cup keeps the quality fields going and I’m really keen to see how TRIPLE HONOUR finishes off its race. I have already had a good crack at this horse to win the Doncaster Mile next month and I expect to see slow progress over the coming month. Currently you can back Triple Honour to win the Doncaster at $67 on SportsBet and that is superb value for me. CENTENNIAL PARK is the early favourite and it’s hard to argue with it after its great form last spring when battling the big boys. I would’ve also considered DREAMSCAPE had it not drawn wide which is suicide at the tight Warrick Farm track.
Flemington starts of its day in style with the Group 3 Breeders Stake for the 2 year old fillies. SHAQEEQ is the strong favourite due to its close 2nd place finishes to quality horses in She’s Got Gears and Star Witness. I didn’t mind the opening run of SUBLIME GIRL and keen to see how it goes here too. The VRC Sires Produce Stakes is the 3rd race and another Group 2 race for the day. I’m really keen on IN FAITH here and have rung a couple of bookies to search for the best odds on this horse winning the Golden Slipper. As of yet In Faith isn’t nominated to run in the big race but after destroying both fields it has come across in its only 2 starts I wouldn’t be surprised to see it being a late entry if it won well again. The Group 2 Kewney Stakes is the next big race of the day and whilst there is a number of big names in here this race doesn’t really excite me right now. I definitely will watch the race but no money will leave my wallet here. The 6th race is the first of the three Group 1’s with the Newmarket Handicap and I could mention a dozen horses and still miss the winner. A great race and definitely won to watch. The Group 1’s continue with the Australian Guineas and the hot pot DENMAN will be hard to roll again. I haven’t heard any news but am curious as to why Denman has blown 20 points in early betting as there seems to be little money around. CARRARA must be sick of the site of Denman’s rear cause once again it’ll be doing the chasing here. Young gun LINTON impressed many with its huge win last start and this will be the acid test here. The Group 1 Australia Cup is next to go and a Caulfield Cup style field contests the big race. SHOCKING was ridden aggressively last start and just ran out of puff in the final 100m so I’d expect more improvement here. SIRMIONE has a brilliant record here with 2 wins and a 3rd from 3 starts. ZARITA is a model of consistency and is worth including in any multiples you decide to put on.
At Eagle Farm I’ll be interested to see if TELESTAH LA VISTAH takes its place in the 3rd after running a brilliant race at huge odds last weekend. While the horse did receive the run of the race it showed plenty of ability and could be a horse on the rise. I can’t really recommend anything else based on the Heavy 9 track. Looks like a favourites card at Morphettville without too many surprises there. Couldn’t really pinpoint a standout so I’ll leave it to you but I think if you back all the fav’s you’ll come out in front. Ascot is solid and very similar to Morphettville with favourites the key but I did managed to find some more confidence around a few chances. I could easily have had a 4th Early Mail selection there had FOR YOUR EYE’S ONLY drawn a bit better in the Group 3 Champion Fillies Stakes (7th).
Tomorrow’s Early Mail is:
12.55pm – Warrick Farm Race 1 – 2. STRIKE ONE (5% Win)
2.22pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 6. TELESTAH LA VISTAH (1% Each Way)
2.40pm – Flemington Race 3 – 2. IN FAITH (5% Win)
3.27pm – Ascot Race 1 – 1. MOTION PICTURES (5% Win)
5.15pm – Ascot Race 4 – 5. GALAXY QUEEN (3% Win)
6.45pm – Ascot Race 6 – 9. TRUCKIN TOBIE (3% Win)
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