To Saturdays racing and as the wild weather lashes the East Coast we are left wondering what will happen to the state of the tracks this weekend. There would have to be some serious concern for Doomben and the gold Coast, while Kembla Grange and Warwick Farm are gradually getting worse. As of yet Caulfield hasn’t been affected so hopefully we find some decent racing on down there.

Caulfield kicks us off with some great races in the opening couple. Most notably is the crack bunch of 3 yr old fillies contesting the 2^nd of the day. Undefeated LA SOCIETE heads the list but really has her work cut out to keep the streak going first up from a good spell. TWILIGHTING impressed me in the spring without really hitting top gear. I think this could be a horse that develops through the years. NO EXTENSIONS found a finishing burst that I think many didn’t realise existed in its last start. Not a suitable style for this track but keep and eye on her as she may be one to follow elsewhere if she can produce it again.

To the next race and THERE’S ONLY ONE, who is a huge favourite of TopPunter tipsters goes out as the top pick in what is again a great field. This horse continues to defy the odds when flying home on slowly run races or tracks that clearly don’t suit. Will have its work cut out again and I’d think much of its danger could come from the topweight in POPULATION who cleaned up the Camperdown Cup last time round.

I’ve been amazed by the support behind Group 1 Crown Oaks winner MOSHEEN in the listed Manfred Stakes (race 5). The Crown Oaks win was a spectacular display destroying a group 1 race by 9 lengths but the race was over 2500m whereas this time she is first up over 1200m. Definitely has the class on its rivals here but the speed could be a telling factor. In the next race I’m so tempted to jump on board the BEL SPRINTER bandwagon but I just can’t do it with the price and the weight. Drawn ideally, racing well last prep and Bel Esprit horses generally sprint well fresh so no issues there but the weight is uncharted territory for me. CANALI looks well placed at nice double figure odds and could be a better way to go along with front running DEFINITELY READY set to keep the pace on in the race.

We find our 2^nd bet of the day at Caulfield in BOLTON in the 7^th race of the day. Never been too far away in each of its runs this preparation and connections are convinced the 2000m will be ideal. Drawn to get the perfect sit in the race and you would have to think if it can see daylight at the right time it will be hard to hold out. The final race of the day is the toughest on the card by far. A field full of horses who can produce some big efforts when needed and if you are looking at quaddie’s you would need to look very wide.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

Friday Night

7.15pm – Mooney Valley Race 2 – 3. HADRONICA (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

Saturday

1.30pm –Warwick Farm Race 2 – 3. DIDNTCOSTALOT (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

3.20pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 4. BERTUCCI (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

3.40pm – Doomben Race 6 – 2. THE RINGMEISTER (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

5.10pm –Caulfield Race 7 – 5. BOLTON (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

1.20pm – Morphettville Race 1 – 6. BABY BOY (Currently $51)

2.50pm – Warwick Farm Race 4 – 8. DANCING ATTENDANCE (Currently $13)

4.30pm – Caulfield  Race 6 – 2. CANALI (Currently $13)

We get straight into the action at Sandown with VOLANDO looking the goods in the 1^st race of the day. Although the mare has 60kg from the handicapper, Peter Moody has placed young apprentice Jake Duffy on board giving him a 3kg claim. This horse has been in great form this prep and finished a game 2^nd behind Flyingconi who was our TopPunter selection last weekend. There are some other nice looking races but just a couple of question marks ruled out a few options for us until the 7^th race of the day. HENWOOD is an easing favourite with the money coming for INSTALMENT who won the race last time they met. However, I think the tables will be turned again with Henwood faring better with the increases in weight and had its share of troubles last time round as well. And finally I am really keen to see how West Australian galloper LIKE AN EAGLE goes in its first appearance on the East Coast. It was very impressive last preparation with a strong finishing burst and could be one to follow in the coming weeks.

Canterbury looks a much tougher meeting with a number of short priced horses that all look vulnerable in their own way. The 5^th race definitely sparks some interest with some good form leading into it with the likes of NEWS ALERT and EIGHT BILLS in strong form along with the returning STEPS IN TIME which has some big wraps on it. Our only bet of the day is a race late when DUKE OF CORNWELL gets his chance in a much weaker race than he has come up against in the past couple of weeks. A nice claim from Sam Clipperton has the horse nicely weighted and ready to win.

We have an incredibly wet track to deal with up north at Doomben and if they get any more rain they are in huge danger of being called off. I tread very lightly in conditions like this but MISS BARWANG looks a strong shot in the 2^nd race of the day. Hopefully the track isn’t too chopped up early on and the race will be a true test. This horse has shown a liking for the soft surfaces with 2 wins from 2 attempts and is in good form lately as well. If it makes it to the 7^th race of the day it will be worth watching with a number of quality horses running around. I’d probably lean towards WHATEVERWHENEVER at this stage but I’d say I’ll just be a spectator here.

To South Australia and one of our favourites in STIRLING GROVE goes round again. It’s found an annoying habit of just missing the price recently and although tempted the $1.80 price tag just seems a bit of a stretch especially when up against local OUTLANDISH LAD who has been in good form.

It may pay to watch GREEN SUPREME in the Wellington Cup at Trentham today (2.26pm) too. This horse looks to be turning into a great distance horse and with solid results in this race and the Auckland Cup (run over 3200m) will probably have connections aiming for the 2012 Melbourne Cup.   

We finish the day in the West with CAVALLO PAZZO who looks a great chance to finish the day off in a winning way. This horse has won 2 on the trot and is well weighted and has the experienced Peter Knuckey on board.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

12.50pm – Sandown Race 1 – 1. VOLANDO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

2.00pm –Doomben Race 2 – 3. MISS BARWANG (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.30pm – Canterbury Race 6 – 4. DUKE OF CORNWELL (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.50pm – Sandown Race 7 – 9. HENWOOD (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

7.20pm – Ascot Race 6 – 2. CAVALLO PAZZO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

5.50pm – Canterbury Race 8 – 12. PEPIN HOAKS (Currently $26)

The 1^st race of the day is a huge field of maidens which does not spark much interest for racing unless you enjoy playing pin the tail on the donkey. Having said that I was surprised to see the 3^rd emergency in WIN FOR LAYLA at such big odds ($26.00). If it manages to get a run it could really put on a show. Its drawn a great barrier and well weighted, good jockey in Tim Bell and raced against some quality animals without being too disgraced. The 2^nd race of the day looks to be settled between SPIRIT OF FLATLEY, GRIFFON and STRATFORD. I’m a bit concerned about the betting drift early in the week on Spirit of Flately as I feel its shown some real progression this preparation and the harder surface is in its favour. Likewise I have question marks over Stratford who’s only run on a harder surface wasn’t that impressive so no doubt it will be praying for rain. The consistent one in the field is clearly Griffon who has produced 2 great runs this time round on wet surfaces and its record on the better tracks is fine. No starts at the Gold Coast is a bit of a worry considering the tightness of the track but surely trainer Robert Heathcote has given him a few runs around to get used to it.

We skip the 3^rd race and head to the 4^th and the Magic Millions Sprint over 1000m and a tough field. There look to be many chances here and although favourite SEEK AND FIND looks to have a bit of quality and form on them I don’t think the Gold Coast track suits his run home style which was shown up in his last race here. Even though he was given a golden passage up the straight he failed to gun down the winner, although the 59kgs wouldn’t have helped. NUPTSE has plenty of admirers with 4 wins from 9 starts but I feel she’s been well placed in her races and wins against average fields, which this isn’t. WARRIOR GIRL is a track specialist and usually races well fresh. Forget its last run when it copped some interference that saw it pushed out to last when beaten by Nuptse.

We start to move onto the big races with the 2yo Magic Millions Classic always a great one for action chasing the $2,000,000 in prize money. I am a huge fan of SIZZLING, who looked the real deal in winning its maiden race by 6 lengths late last year. Since then it has jumped out of the clouds for a pair of 2^nd place finishes doing its best work when the race was over. This is a huge concern for the Gold Coast track and connections will have to consider racing the horse much closer to the pace with the advantage of a better barrier draw this week. Conversely early favourite DRIEFONTEIN deserves to be favourites with a perfect barrier draw for a horse who is sure to roll straight to the front and attempt to dictate terms as it did against Sizzling last time round. Hard to really find a danger to those 2 even though there is some solid form in amongst the others. I’d probably include SNIPTZU in your multiples if that’s the way you like to play.

The 6^th and next race is the Guineas over 1400m and its probably the toughest race of the day to pick. If you’re managing to have a good day by now then go have a break for a bit. Have a bite to eat, get in the beer line or chat to some strangers as this race spells trouble. For the diehard punters I’d lean ever so slightly in favour of EASY RUNNING, although if the Sydney trained SAFUSA and HAPPY HUSSY both handle the track on their first visit they will be tough to beat.

The good racing continues in the 7^th race of the day with the Magic Millions Cup well supported by the older horses. CATAPULTED assumes favouritism on the back a great 3 length win down the straight at Flemington last time round. There are many differences here and you’d want to be a huge fan of the horse to get your cash on him tomorrow. LATIN NEWS rarely runs a bad race and has been supported in early betting again suggesting he is ready to break a string of 2^nd placings that has peppered his current campaign. MY DESTINY has made it 4 wins on the trot and is showing the gritty strength it takes to be a great horse when the challenge is set down in the straight.

The “Stayers” Cup is the penultimate race over the day and I put the name of the race in quotations as the race is only over 1800m. Not much of a staying test! Sydney Galloper KONTIKI PARK takes favouritism after a strong win in its first Queensland effort but I’m not as convinced here. There are a number of horses we have supported in recent weeks to great success which represent much better value. RACING HEART, HIDDEN KISSES and SATCH are all in double figures and been racing well. Whilst they haven’t registered a win at the Gold Coast track they have at least had a run here which puts them at a huge advantage to the favourite.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

1.15pm – Flemington Race 2 – 2. ROSES IN THE GLEN
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.15pm – Flemington Race 5 – 3. BELGIETTO
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.35pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 8. ALMA’S FURY
(Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.15pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 9. BELLO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

5.10pm – Ascot Race 2 – 2. THE WEAPON (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

1.05pm – Gold Coast Race 1 – 19. WIN FOR LAYLA (Currently $26)

3.05pm – Gold Coast Race 4 – 7. WARRIOR GIRL (Currently $17)

4.45pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 6. GENEROUS BEAU (Currently $13)

5.15pm – Flemington Race 8 – 10. KASANE (Currently $17)

We start the day at race 3 which looks a match in 2 between BURNOUT and DAYMO and we find both at a decent price. I can’t see this being the quinella though as the chances of both will be dictated by the speed of the race with Daymo likely to get up on the pace and Burnout will sit back for one crack at them in the straight. That being said I think the value is with Burnout with a number of horses who prefer to race closer to the speed which will more than likely cause a solid tempo. Burnout also meets Daymo 2kgs better off after their last meeting.

We move forward to Race 6 and the Summer Cup and my top selection goes with SCOUTING WIDE who has shown great progression this preparation as Tim Martin gradually steps this horse up in distance clearly with the focus of this race in his plans. The horse is undefeated over this course and distance and a 5kg drop in weight from its last start 2^nd is ideal. The value is there for us to get on board, however, you have to say that FULL PEAL will be tough to beat if it handles the move up from Victoria. The reason why I think it is vulnerable tomorrow though is because this will be its first run in Sydney and it has to step up another 400m from its last start.

Caulfield fails to impress in the early meetings until we get to race 5 which is a cracking race for the sprinters. I’m keen to see the return of THERE’S ONLY ONE who was super impressive moving through the grades last preparation. I think this horse has some real ability and is definitely one to watch in the coming weeks. I think it may find some of these a bit too zippy for it first up and am leaning towards ZEFTABA and AVIONICS as my top selections.

To the next race and we have another solid horse making its return to racing in MR MAKE BELIEVE who may find the track a little too firm to produce a top first up effort. Having said that it normally comes together quickly so a win would not surprise. SECOND EFFORT is another who we should keep an eye on after going for a spell after they found it had a respiratory infection last time round. Before that the horse was dominating some decent fields with 4 wins on the trot so you have to show it some respect.

TWO SUGARS gets us our only official bet of the day at Caulfield on the back of 3 wins on the trot and wins against horses it meets again tomorrow. It will probably have to work a little to get over from the wide barrier but the price is definitely right for us to get involved.

Morphettville tried hard with some big fields and possible chances but the confidence just isn’t there.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

2.25pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 1. BURNOUT (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

4.12pm – Rosehill Race 6 – 4. SCOUTING WIDE (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

4.35pm – Caulfield Race 7 – 1. TWO SUGARS (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

4.52pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 10. EARNEST ERNEST (Currently $17)

A few of our early possibilities at Sandown have been passed by after not quite making the selection criteria for an Early Mail pick. We take until the 5^th race of the day till we find our first be there with SONG OF THE BELL who produced a good effort first up over an unsuitable distance and having to work hard early. She will be much fitter for the run and back to the 1000m with a good draw I think presents good value. OFORAWESOME looks great value in the 6^th and I was tempted to make it an each way selection, however, you have to be wary of the money around FLYINGCONI who has been backed from $13 into $5.50 and I there has been a lot of talk around the bottom weight ZERO TO SIXTY who has made an impression in its first 2 starts. Another who just misses selection even though you have to be impressed with its 2 career runs. The impressive thing for me with these runs is also what worries me here. Clearly unsuited by the short Caulfield straight which didn’t allow it enough time to finish will find a similar story here at the Sandown track.

To Canterbury and we get into the action with WINNING GLORY who I am backing up on after it just failed to run the distance last time round for us. I thought Nash Rawiller went too early at Rosehill and left it a sitting duck in the final 100m but the Canterbury track and a few kgs off will be definitely too its advantage. No surprise to see half the punting world on TIGER TEES tomorrow since it has racked up 5 wins from 7 starts and is in great form. A last start 2^nd to Group 1 winning Atomic Force only pushed it higher up the ranks and I would expect this horse to shift into single figures by tomorrow so take the fixed odds while you can.

Doomben has seen plenty of bets go by the way side and once again it is a case of close but no cigar on many options. Funnily enough my first bet of the day is on SATCH in the 5^th who I suggested was a possible bet on Wednesday when it was scratched. The reason it missed the Early Mail on Wednesday was the $1.70 price tag on its head which I didn’t think was value in a strong mid week race (As it turned out it didn’t matter with the scratching). However, here it definitely meets tougher opposition, but not by much and the price is much more generous. The listed Lough Neagh is definitely a highlight of the day with a field full of chances. Hard to really feel confident about any particular horse and many punters will probably just stick with their favourites. I’m torn between the bottom weights with MY DESTINY attempting to bring its Sydney form up north while STEEL ZIP looks ready to produce a big effort and this race looks well suitable.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

2.55pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 1. MOVING MONEY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

3.05pm –Canterbury Race 4 – 3. WINNING GLORY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

3.25pm – Sandown Race 5 – 4. SONG OF THE BELL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.45pm – Canterbury Race 5 – 3. TIGER TEES (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

3.55pm – Doomben Race 5 – 7. SATCH (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

4.05pm – Sandown Race 6 – 2. OFORAWESOME (Currently $11)

4.26pm – Canterbury Race 6 – 6. ONE WAY TICKET (Currently $17)

4.50pm – Ascot Race 5 – 6. LAST CURTAIN (Currently $17)

We get straight into the action with a very good looking bet in the 2^nd race of the day in CLIQUES. This is a very impressive looking horse and showed its true colours with a dominant win at Kyneton last time round. Has found trouble a couple of times when visiting the big smoke but from the inside barrier tomorrow I think we will be getting in the collect queue nice and early.

When it comes time for the Oaks (Race 6) it gets really tough. Many of the favourites haven’t really shown me anything to suggest that the 2500m is in their repertoire suggesting that the race could be taken out by one of the lesser known horses. Often this race is set at a fairly swift tempo as these horses, with barely any racing under their belt, don’t know any better which turns it into a true staying test. I don’t see that in any of the favourite with the exception of RAVHEEL who hit the line better than the others last start when they were all blown away by Atlantic Jewel. GIOE, VITTORIA and PENTIMENTO all look way better value for me and would be a much smarter each way option.

TORAH was impressive winning on Cox Plate day against a strong field of horses and I can easily see the step up to 1800m being right in her grasp. I am a little concerned about the rise in weight which may test the young 3 yr old and for that reason it just misses out on the Early Mail spot. If you are having a good day on the punt though it’s probably worth a dig.  PERTURBO looks nicely placed in the 8^th race against a strong field. The 1000m is maybe a little skinny for it but I think it could find some nice cover and at the odds is worth taking the risk with a erratic favourite in MASTER HARRY.

Over in New South Wales we have the Hawkesbury Gold Cup being held and a really strong field is there to contest it this year. Really hard to see SOMEPIN ANYPIN getting beaten here but not keen to take on the $1.70 on offer with Hawkesbury being a really tricky circuit and there also has to be some question marks about it getting over comfortably from barrier 14. In the last favourite TITLE looks a very good chance but the price has got me scared again at $2.50. It’s a big weight to carry but this horse has got plenty of class on the others. Maybe it’s worth chucking a small multi on the 2 horses together to get you more realistic odds of around $4.30 and hope they both run up to their potential.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

1.00pm – Flemington Race 2 – 1. CLIQUES (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

5.10pm – Flemington Race 8 – 4. PERTURBO (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

1.40pm – Flemington Race 3 – 15. MISS OCTOPUSSY (Currently $13)

For the Melbourne Cup I will preview my thoughts on my Top 5 selections and why. Last year we successfully picked 1^st, 2^nd, 4^th and 5^th from our 5 selections and the favourite (So You Think) ran 3^rd giving many a nice paying First 4.

23. NIWOT ($9.00) – For those who stuck with the very early TopPunter tip of Niwot (We started mentioning it back in May when it won the Ramdsen over 3200m at Flemington) you are absolutely laughing with odds of $81 regularly being offered and the horse in top form. He dominated a strong field in the Lexus on Saturday winning by over 3 lengths with 2 more lengths back to 3^rd. The distance isn’t an issue either with the win over 3200m earlier in the year catching my eye for its impressiveness (Even though it was a weak field).

7. UNUSUAL SUSPECT ($41.00) – Honestly hadn’t really looked at this horse until a few days ago when I started my Melbourne Cup form reading. His run in the Caulfield Cup went unnoticed but was without a doubt the run of the race. Got held up a number of times at vital stages of the race and although I think it wouldn’t have caught the winners I think the extra distance looks like it will suit perfectly. Untried over the distance but well weighted and a good barrier so I think it should run it out nicely.

2. JUKEBOX JURY ($12.00) – The forgotten horse of the top 3 heavyweights. Will be tested in the fact it is having its first Australian start in the big race but it has the form to get through that. The fact that 2 starts back it beat both Americain and Dunaden by over 5 lengths each says this horse has plenty of class and doesn’t really deserve to be so high in the market. Fresh off winning the Irish St Ledger the distance won’t be a problem and the only real danger to me will be how it handles the tight racing we have in Australia. From Barrier 6 you will know how it will handle things very early with plenty of horses flying over to gain a position close to the fence.

18. MOYENNE CORNICHE ($26.00) – Caught my eye with its debut and only Australian start in the Hebert Power stakes with a fast finishing 3^rd. that has been a great form race for me in the past and I’m more than happy to stick with it again here. Beat a solid field in its last start in England in the Ebor and will have no issues over the 2 miles. Will need some luck form a wide barrier early though.

6. MANIGHAR ($31.00) – I had a number of horses fighting for the 5^th and final position and Manighar just scraps in there for me. Funnily enough I’ve never been a fan of the Caulfield Cup form but this year a couple have grabbed my attention. This horse grabbed my final pick based on the fact it has been here before so has experience on its side. Last year it came from 16^th to finish 7^th and did a similar job in the Caulfield Cup coming from back in the pack to run 4^th after finding some trouble in the straight.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

11.45pm – Flemington Race 3 – 12. EXCLUDED (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

12.30pm – Flemington Race 4 – 3. LITTLE SURFER GIRL (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)

3.55pm – Flemington Race 8 – 4. LAMASERY (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

We start the day with a very good looking horse in GALAH who has only lost one race in its career when on debut and beaten a short nose at Randwick. Hard to see it getting beaten here. The real interest starts in the next event being the Group 3 Lexus Stakes which has many of the Melbourne Cup contenders trying to gain a last ditch spot in the field with a win. Those who jumped on NIWOT early in betting when I suggested it to be a long shot for the Melbourne Cup are hoping it gets a nicer roll towards the front of the pack it had last time round in the Caulfield Cup. I thinks it’s got its work cut out with the like of GREEN MOON looking a much stronger chance after its last couple of great runs. MOYENNE CORNICHE looked impressive in finishing strong behind Shewan and Tanby and you’d have to think the longer the races get the better this horse will look. ANUDJAWON is the best of the outsiders and should be coming home late.

Can anyone beat ATLANTIC JEWEL to glory in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes? The answer is no! The only danger to this horse is the extra distance and it doesn’t even look close to stopping it. GLIDING will have gotten plenty of its admirers based on its successful rise to the 2000m last start for its maiden victory. Much stronger class of horse running around here so will need to lift again to claim victory.  The first of the Group 1 races is for the 3 yr olds with the Coolmore Stud Stakes and another raging favourite in SEPOY who has suffered only 1 defeat in its 10 race career. Again it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see it being hard to beat here but it does have some competition. FOXWEDGE and MASTHEAD have shown they have some ability and I think ADAMANTIUM doesn’t look the worst horse to sneak into the placings.

The Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes is another race full of Melbourne Cup contenders and hopefuls but is often used as a warm up race for some. I think GLASS HARMONIUM has to get another mention after you can forget its Cox Plate run when missing the start. FORETELLER was a strong winner for us last time round but will have to lift here against a much stronger field and a weight rise. I thought REKINDLED INTEREST was the run of the race behind Pinker Pinker in the Cox Plate and is at its ideal distance with the 2000m.

The 3^rd Group 1 race of the day earns a spot in the big race next Tuesday with the Victorian Derby for 3yr olds guaranteed the 24^th spot on the day.  MANAWANUI goes out a strong favourite after a string of great runs where it has shown great speed and tremendous courage. However, I really think the extra distance is going to push it right to the limit. It’s not a really strong field of 3 yr olds this year and to be honest the horse that qualifies may not even run in the Melbourne Cup. SABRAGE and SANGSTER raced each other last time round and both ran on strongly over the 2000m suggesting the extra distance shouldn’t be a problem. The also ran it in 4 seconds faster than Manawanui. NIAGARA has been aimed for this race from a long way out. Looked to be holding some back in the same race as the previous 2 before really getting going over the final 200m which has me picking it for the top spot. Finally I am going to stick in I FEEL GOOD who had a top race last week at Mooney Valley when stepping up a long way in distance. The rider sat up a long way from home even though it came from last to finish 4^th behind Manawanui. At $121 the TopPunter roughie punters should be all over this, especially after we snagged a $41 shot in the last at Bendigo on Wednesday.

The Group 1 Myer Classic sees the great racing continue on Super Saturday and there is a lot of confidence surrounding topweight MORE JOYOUS who has been flying during its track gallops in preparation for this race. Nash Rawiller has stated that she doesn’t have the same speed that she once possessed but the extra distance still gives her plenty of time to wind up for the finish. Hard to really find confidence in anything to beat it although I do think LADY LYNETTE and GOON SERPENT are well over the odds.

The Group 2 Salinger Stakes (Race 7) is the toughest race of the day with a number of quality horses running around and many in good form. TEMPLE OF BOOM has posted 2 wins in its past 2 starts but has drawn wide here so will need luck early. SISTER MADLY found the 1400m too long last time round but will be much more suited back to the 1200m here. MID SUMMER MUSIC and CURTANA get the nod for me though with 2 great runs behind Sepoy last time round. The 1200m is ideal and both sneak in with a nice light weight. The final race of the day doesn’t get any easier with a number of chances to win here. DOUBTFUL JACK showed plenty of ticker when given a cold by Black Caviar at the Valley last week and could give them plenty to chase. LAUNAY did it tough on the speed last time round and was a sitting duck for the swoopers. Has a great record here unbeaten at Flemington from 3 starts which ticks even more boxes. Only just misses an Early Mail pick but if you’ve had a good day up to here then I would suggest having a few dollars on him.

Our Early Mail Selections are:

12.10pm – Morphettville Race 1 – 2. SKY RAIDER (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)

1.48pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 4. HENDRICUS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

3.30pm – Rosehill Race 5 – 1. ATOMIC FORCE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)

4.15pm – Doomben Race 5 – 10. HIDDEN KISSES (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

4.30pm – Flemington Race 8 – 9. MID SUMMER MUSIC (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)

Our Best Roughie Selections are:

3.00pm – Flemington Race 6 – 14. I FEEL GOOD (Currently $121)

4.50pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 12. NITRO (Currently $11)

5.20pm –Morphettville Race 8 – 11. ROWDY ROCKER (Currently $15)

The first couple of races are lacking a real streak of quality with an average bunch of 2 and 3 yr olds going round. BLISS STREET should be the top pick in the 2^nd race but looked a bit over cooked last time round when given a bath by Atlantic Jewel. EURAYLE looks like it wants to give more and I’m not sure the horse has really been fully pushed yet. The 1600m definitely suits the horse more so may expect more from her tomorrow. The 2 favourites in the race in TWILIGHTING and CLASSIC ELLE both come out of the same race and I’m not really sure of the quality. Twilighting can run a strong 1600m so probably shouldn’t be passed over. Finally the 3^rd race of the day has a bit more class inserted with KARUTA QUEEN assuming top spot on the tables following a solid 2^nd place behind the great Black Caviar last time round. May not have an easy time of it with some talented youngsters showing some good form early in their career, however, it does appear to have ability and experience on its side here.

At race 4 we reach the Group races with the Group 2 Michelton Wines Vase over the Cox Plate distance of 2040m. It’s the first of 2 group 2’s with insanely short favourites in MANAWANUI ($1.20) followed by BLACK CAVIAR ($1.04) in the 5^th. Many bookies are starting to offer markets without favourites to keep the punters interested so I’d expect to see a few of those options pop up here. The only question mark for Manawanui is the step up in distance, however, based on its last run you’d have to think it could do that with reasonable comfort. For the 2^nd place finish I’d lean towards I FEEL GOOD, but only just. In the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes (Race 5) I am looking at BALAVAN just in front of SCENIC BLAST for the back up spot to Black Caviar but I’m again I’m not saying it with any real confidence.

The 6^th race sees last years Melbourne Cup winner AMERICAIN make its return to Australia in the Group 2 International Cup. It was first up last year when winning the Geelong Cup so you have to respect its abilities. I think this year it has a lot more focus on backing up its Melbourne Cup win so a victory tomorrow might not be on the cards as much as before. I’ve got 3 big watches in the race in SHEWAN, TULLAMORE and ILLO who are all serious contenders for the Cup. The first 2 need a win to gain a spot in the big race whilst the Germany horse Illo is all but assured a spot so the question is more about how it has travelled and if it likes the tight Australian racing. Shewan was impressive winning the Herbert Power last time round beating Tanby who ran a strong 2^nd in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday. Meanwhile Tullamore was one of the best runs in the Caulfield Cup with a really strong finish. He has copped a bit of a weight penalty for it and the Mooney Valley track may not give him the room he needs to get wound up but look for it late. ANUDJAWON could be one for the roughie or multiple punters if it can find a decent spot from the wide gate. Will need some luck late though.

Next up is the Group 2 Crystal Mile and racing really starts to get tough with a field full of horses who have erratic form. You can easily name a number of horses that have a chance here and still miss the winner. I often say when in doubt look to good jockeys and a good record at the track so GINGA DUDE, BLACKIE and HAPPY TRAILS get my vote.

We come to the big race of the day and by now we may really be needing a winner so hopefully we can dissect the form of what is a really strong solid field. Unofrtunately many of the big hopes have drawn wide which is going to make the pace of a the race very interesting. I’d be very surprised if favourite HELMET doesn’t roll to the front from the outside barrier after its strong performance in winning the Caulfield Guineas last time round. Although it caries almost nothing it will have its work cut out for it with GLASS HARMONIUM also keen to get its nose in front and much better suited with the ideal draw near the rails. SECRET ADMIRER looked very comfortable staying away from the early speed in the Epsom and it could be a real blow out for punters if they decide to go a bit crazy early on here. REKINDLED INTEREST found plenty of admirers when it comfortably held early favourite JIMMY CHOUX at bay in a trail earlier in the week. Jimmy Choux returned to the track yesterday and put down some amazing splits that put him right back in the mix. I think Glass Harmonium may end up getting a comfortable run in front after an early speed burst and I have him just on top for the big win in front of Jimmy Choux.

Its worth hanging round for the final race of the day with the Group 3 Trojan Hand Tools Stakes hosting a quality field in the 9^th. LADY LYNETTE looked lost at Caulfield last time round but is a horse that seems to thrive on the big occasion so I’d expect it to hit back here. NERIANI has been drawn to get a great run and could be a nice lightweight hope here. Has been in solid form and will be hitting its peak fitness after a strong start to its spring campaign.

We start the day with a fairly average 3yr old race for the girls and I like the look of the outsider of the field in MABSAM. Whilst it hasn’t got dazzling form the horses it has been beaten by aren’t terrible and this is a very average start to the day so the big odds would be worth considering. “I have just received word that this horse is likely to withdraw from this race in favour of the 1^st at Randwick”.  In the 2^nd I can’t believe the price of MASTHEAD who ran superbly behind Foxwedge last time round. This horse has been mixing it with the big guns like Sepoy for much of its career and hasn’t lost any admirers. The step up to 1400m will suit him down to the ground and I am expecting a solid win here tomorrow. The 3^rd race doesn’t interest me at all.

We step into the Group races next with the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes over 2000m on the cards. It’s another difficult race with the early favourite a weakening New Zealander in SANGSTER who looked much more improved with the step up to 2000m last start. Hard to really get too confident on the horse as it had the pace on to get home fast last time round and I can’t really see that here. COSTLY COMMITMENT looks a much more appealing prospect at the each way odds. A previous winner here at Caulfield before a strong 3^rd placing in its last start. It got out sprinted last time round but if it can find the 2000m it should be right in the finish. The big money has come for NIAGRA who won by 6 lengths at Canterbury last start. It is stepping up another 450m and did have an easy time out in front last time round so I’m a little cautious.

There were many who were hoping to see SEPOY take on Black Caviar this Spring but that won’t be happening now with Sepoy choosing to contest the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint whilst Black Caviar with take on the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes next weekend at Mooney Valley. Sepoy obviously has its hands all over this race and it’s hard to see him getting beaten. I’d be looking at BUFFERING, PERTURBO and MID SUMMER MUSIC to fill the minor positions. The 6^th race of the day is the Betfair stakes and again we have a very big even field where the run of the race will most likely determine the winner here. Favourite LOVE CONQUERS ALL is likely to find the Caulfield straight a bit too short which doesn’t allow it time for its big grinding finish. Meanwhile PINWHEEL gets out to a backable price after a shocking start cost it any chance in the Rupert Clarke last time round. It has drawn wide here which is a concern but could be worth a small each way bet. LAUNAY is a good fresh horse but this is a tough ask. Would definitely be worth considering if the horse looks good in condition in the mounting yard. There appears to be some good pace in the this race so UTAH SAINTS is probably going to be doing it tough but on the other side it may suit VAREENA MISS who will be hitting the line hard.

The 7^th race is the Group 3 David Jones Cup and surprise surprise we have another wide open field making our job just that little bit tougher. FORETELLER gets another mention and should be right at its prime over the 2000m. LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT appeared to find the 2400m a bit too far for it last time round. If that run hasn’t taken too much out of him I’d expect a big improvement here. You’ve gotta love the form line through PLATNIUM PASSION with a win over Herbert Power winner Shewan last time it stepped out on this track over the 2000m. MIDNIGHT MARTINI comes down the same form line and has to be seriously considered as well.

For the big race, the Group 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m I have a couple of horses I am strongly leaning towards. It’s rare that someone doesn’t jump out of nowhere but the horses you have to include in your multiples are:

MIGHTY HIGH – Impressive stayer from Hong Kong who has shown enough in its 2 Australian starts to suggest it is ready to fire here

DECEMBER DRAW – Has been beating any horse that has been thrown in front o it. Definitely not considered a threat at the start of the year but seems to improve each week.

SAPTAPADI – I really liked its first Australian run since arriving from Ireland where it came from well back and wide to finish only a few lengths back.

NIWOT – This was my early pick for the Melbourne Cup and it needs to get another win to get up the order or entry to gain a spot. Still finishing races off but finding the distances too short. Stick with him

GREEN MOON – You had to be impressed with the run in the Newcastle Gold Cup which backed up its effort against December Draw the start previous. A real bolter who is too short for my liking but should be running on at the finish.

Definitely not worth going home straight after the Caulfield Cup as the Group 2 Tristarc is a race with some real talent on display. Many punters were disappointed that MORE JOYOUS didn’t fire first up at Mooney Valley when everyone was given a lesson by Sepoy. She just looked a little under done there and I think will be much fitter for the run and should turn the table on SISTER MADLY who beat it home in the same race. It does meet the horse 1 kg worse off but the extra 200m will go right in its favour as well. BOOKLET and I’M DISCREET aren’t without hope of causing a boil over either. In the last of the day there has been some real interest over Adelaide galloper AMY’S GLEN who has been a TopPunter Early Mail selection at Morphettville in the past. I’m not really a fan of taking horses who haven’t had a run at Caulfield but betting indicates there are a plenty who are feeling confident. PSYCHOLOGIST has a great record when racing fresh, undefeated in 2 starts previous. It’s never really lived up to the early hype surrounding the horse as a 2 yr old but it definitely had some talent as a youngster.

Tough day. Hard to find winners right across the country. Play sensible people