March 5th – Horse Racing
Once again the TopPunter Team has decided to share the knowledge with everyone on such a great days racing.
What a cracking days racing we have in store for us tomorrow. Obviously the main big races are at Flemington with 3 Group 1 events (Australia Cup, Newmarket and Australian Guineas) but Warrick Farm has put on a great meeting to really challenge it for class.
It gets off to a flying start with the opening race being a good test for the distance horses and I think we are on a real winner with our Early Mail selection in STRIKE ONE. The first Group race of the day for Warrick Farm is the Group 2 Surround Stakes and it is hands down MORE JOYOUS to the winning post. I expect to see more improvement from the talented youngster RUN FOR NAARA who should continue to improve as she goes up in distance. Connections of LITTLE SURFER GIRL have said they will be patient with here as well and expect to see large improvements in the coming weeks there. The Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes is usually a solid lead in event for the Golden Slipper in a few weeks time but I think the field is not as strong as in previous years. I am keen on GEORGETTE SILK as a Slipper contender so to prove me right it would have to put up a strong performance against one of the slipper favourites in SOLAR CHARGED. The 6th is the big one of the day for NSW in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes and what a field they have put together. Chris Waller trains the 2 favourites in RANGIRANGDOO and DANLEIGH and it is likely that they will fight out the finish again. However, I’m not convinced this track suits either horse even though they both possess the fast sprint needed if you end up back in the field at the turn. I would definitely lean more towards Rangi than Danleigh if you forced me though. I think THESEO could really surprise with a great barrier draw almost certainly meaning he’ll be right there on the finishing turn. A number of the outsiders could easily finish the winner if they get the right run. Definitely one to watch and not throw your money away. The Group 3 City Cup keeps the quality fields going and I’m really keen to see how TRIPLE HONOUR finishes off its race. I have already had a good crack at this horse to win the Doncaster Mile next month and I expect to see slow progress over the coming month. Currently you can back Triple Honour to win the Doncaster at $67 on SportsBet and that is superb value for me. CENTENNIAL PARK is the early favourite and it’s hard to argue with it after its great form last spring when battling the big boys. I would’ve also considered DREAMSCAPE had it not drawn wide which is suicide at the tight Warrick Farm track.
Flemington starts of its day in style with the Group 3 Breeders Stake for the 2 year old fillies. SHAQEEQ is the strong favourite due to its close 2nd place finishes to quality horses in She’s Got Gears and Star Witness. I didn’t mind the opening run of SUBLIME GIRL and keen to see how it goes here too. The VRC Sires Produce Stakes is the 3rd race and another Group 2 race for the day. I’m really keen on IN FAITH here and have rung a couple of bookies to search for the best odds on this horse winning the Golden Slipper. As of yet In Faith isn’t nominated to run in the big race but after destroying both fields it has come across in its only 2 starts I wouldn’t be surprised to see it being a late entry if it won well again. The Group 2 Kewney Stakes is the next big race of the day and whilst there is a number of big names in here this race doesn’t really excite me right now. I definitely will watch the race but no money will leave my wallet here. The 6th race is the first of the three Group 1’s with the Newmarket Handicap and I could mention a dozen horses and still miss the winner. A great race and definitely won to watch. The Group 1’s continue with the Australian Guineas and the hot pot DENMAN will be hard to roll again. I haven’t heard any news but am curious as to why Denman has blown 20 points in early betting as there seems to be little money around. CARRARA must be sick of the site of Denman’s rear cause once again it’ll be doing the chasing here. Young gun LINTON impressed many with its huge win last start and this will be the acid test here. The Group 1 Australia Cup is next to go and a Caulfield Cup style field contests the big race. SHOCKING was ridden aggressively last start and just ran out of puff in the final 100m so I’d expect more improvement here. SIRMIONE has a brilliant record here with 2 wins and a 3rd from 3 starts. ZARITA is a model of consistency and is worth including in any multiples you decide to put on.
At Eagle Farm I’ll be interested to see if TELESTAH LA VISTAH takes its place in the 3rd after running a brilliant race at huge odds last weekend. While the horse did receive the run of the race it showed plenty of ability and could be a horse on the rise. I can’t really recommend anything else based on the Heavy 9 track. Looks like a favourites card at Morphettville without too many surprises there. Couldn’t really pinpoint a standout so I’ll leave it to you but I think if you back all the fav’s you’ll come out in front. Ascot is solid and very similar to Morphettville with favourites the key but I did managed to find some more confidence around a few chances. I could easily have had a 4th Early Mail selection there had FOR YOUR EYE’S ONLY drawn a bit better in the Group 3 Champion Fillies Stakes (7th).
Tomorrow’s Early Mail is:
12.55pm – Warrick Farm Race 1 – 2. STRIKE ONE (5% Win)
2.22pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 6. TELESTAH LA VISTAH (1% Each Way)
2.40pm – Flemington Race 3 – 2. IN FAITH (5% Win)
3.27pm – Ascot Race 1 – 1. MOTION PICTURES (5% Win)
5.15pm – Ascot Race 4 – 5. GALAXY QUEEN (3% Win)
6.45pm – Ascot Race 6 – 9. TRUCKIN TOBIE (3% Win)
February 28th – Weekend Ratings Review
We commented yesterday that the Weekend Ratings looked a good chance to collect the Big 6 and many of our subscribers are now laughing all the way to the collect queue. Here is a review of the horses, what they were ranked in the ratings and there tote price. The end dividend was $33,706.00 which could have been collected for as little investment as $120.
Race 1 – Rosehill Race 6 – Winner – 10. MONTON ($30.60) ranked 5th at 12%
Race 2 – Caulfield Race 7 – Winner – 6. TYPHOON TRACY ($1.60) ranked 1st at 100%
Race 3 – Rosehill Race 7 – Winner -4. WINTER KING (10.30) ranked 3rd at 15%
Race 4 – Caulfield Race 8 – Winner – 1. EXTRA ZERO ($3.60) ranked 2nd at 53%
Race 5 – Rosehill Race 8 – Winner – 7. SOPHISTICATION ($2.80) ranked 2nd at 93%
Race 6 – Caulfield Race 9 – Winner – 8. BERRINGAMA ($3.20) ranked 2nd at 75%
Well done again to those collecting the cash and we hope the returns continue in the future. If you would like more information on the Weekend Ratings like, “How do they work?”, “What do the percentages mean?”, “How should i use them?” then just email me at brad@toppunter.net
February 27th – Horse Racing
I have decided on such a good days racing to share our Early Mail preview and selections with everyone to give you a taste of what our subscribers receive. The percentages next to the EArly Mail selections show the level of your betting bank you should invest. For more information on this join for the FREE month or email me at brad@toppunter.net.
Here is this mornings email.
Morning All,
The Horse Managed Fund continued to roll on last night with another high percentaged winner in SWOOPER winning comfortably. Rarely has a day gone by where we haven’t picked up a winner and made a profit for the day.
Thanks also to those who sent messages after Wednesday’s Early Mail. Although we only had 1 tip which didn’t get a collect we did mention KISS ‘N CHASE who won the last in comfortable fashion while ROBERTS ROAD almost pulled off a big win for some of our punters when it ran close 2nd paying at least $4.50 the place (On Betfair it was closer to $6.00)
Today’s racing is pretty handy and well worth having a bet. As always keep your big bets to our Early Mail and have some fun bets elsewhere around the place. I have a feeling the ratings will go close to the Big 6 and Quaddie’s today so might be worth having a dabble there too. The biggest race is unfortunately the least appealing with TYPHOON TRACY a standout selection. To be honest I never recommend backing anything under $1.60 but that is almost worth a go at those odds. SNIPERS BULLET has the class but won’t win today, however, I am very keen to see how our old favourite JOKU handles this class. In the next we have The Yalumba and I think PINS ON ICE is an outside chance at a blowout result at the juicy odds of $26. Probably the pick of the races is the last which see’s some old timers take on each other. I’m not going to stick my next out on any but will be enjoying the race.
Rosehill has strong racing all day and I’m very keen to see how CHAKVETADZE handles her first trip to Sydney. I was tempted to back it in the early mail but it’s been a quick trip down here (after racing last weekend) and I’m not sure they could’ve prepared the horse to its best ability. The Group 2 Silver Slipper is the first big race on the card and the hot favourite CHANCE BYE is the talk of the town after 2 huge wins in its only 2 starts. The horse I expected to challenge it strongly was GEORGETTE SILK, however, it has been scratched this morning already. Maybe if ZUTURA has improved its racing style she could threaten for a win. The next sees some of the best in Sydney go round in the Hobartville Stakes. Early Favourite MANHATTAN RAIN was very disappointing last start while SHOOT OUT was brilliant, however, there is a multitude of chances in this race and again I couldn’t stick my neck out. VERBALLED came close to an Early Mail selection in the 7th, while the last should go to early favourite SOPHISTICATION, however, we’ve gone for the value in MADIBAGOLD.
Our Early Mail Tips are:
3.35pm – Caulfield Race 6 – 1. TIME MATTERS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.45pm – Morphettville Race 5 – 4. IN THE CHAIR (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
5.15pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 3. MADIBAGOLD (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
6.05pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 8. WILD WILBUR (Horse Managed Fund 1% EW)
6.15pm – Ascot Race 5 – 10. IMPATIENT TIMES (Horse Managed Fund 4% Win)
TopPunter Managed Fund
I have had a lot of questions lately about the TopPunter Managed Funds so i thought i would post a little more information on here. Here at TopPunter we have two Managed Funds (Horse and Sports) which investors have the opportunity to participate in. Anyone can join at any time but the funds work on a monthly basis and each investor recieves a rundown on how the fund performed at the end of every month plus an opportunity to remove any funds without penalty.
Some of you still might be confused so I will give you an example. If you had invested $1000 in the Horse Racing fund at the start of February you would have been emailed all 24 bets (All bets are emailed prior to each race to ensure authenticity) where we have had 9 winners and an increase in profit of 19%. Therefore your $1000 balance would now be worth $1190. If it stayed at that level at the end of the month the commision taken by TopPunter would only be $28.50 (15% of profit only) leaving you with a tidy $161.50 profit for the month without doing anything. The best bit about the TopPunter commision is we it is only taken if you make a profit. So if you’re not making money then neither are we.
Here is the email you would have received as a subscriber this morning explaining the bets we were backing for today.
Caulfield Race 7 – 3. BENETEAU (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
Rosehill Race 6 – 6. RANGIRANDOO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
Doomben Race 6 – 3. CHAKVETADZE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Caulfield Race 8 – 2. LUCKY SECRET (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Morphettville Race 7 – 10. I’M DISCREET (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
**The percentages are the amount of your bank that is placed on each bet.
If at the end of the month you decided to leave your profit in the fund you begin the next month with $1161.50.
Anyone signing up for the FREE month trial recieves all Managed Fund selections so you can follow them yourselves.
For more information on returns for each fund since it begin in June 2009 just send me an email at brad@toppunter.net
February 13th – Horse Racing (Big 6 Preview)
The NSWTAB Big 6 promotion reaches a massive $2million jackpot today and is definitely worth a crack. You could try a number of methods from our Weekend Horse Ratings, Early Mail Selections or we have also had one of our team do his preview of the races along with a staking plan for you.
Hi All,
The Big 6 is a special one this weekend, with expected prize pool of over $2m with loads of cash poured in by the TAB for a mega jackpot.
We’d like nothing more than to help you get over the line, so we’ve got a special preview for the NSW Tab which is races 7, 8 9 at Mooney Valley and races 6, 7, 8 at Randwick. We’ll go wide where we need to make sure we’ve included those bigger odds hopefuls, but always looking to keep the multiples down to get a maximum %.
Leg 1: The NSW BIG6 kicks off with the William Reid Stakes, race 7 around Mooney Valley. The scratching of Black Caviar leaves the race with a few more chances and all the talk is about the speed in the race – will there be enough for a latecomer like NICCONI who fires home from the back? Considering his stunning win last start we can’t go past him, but we’ll put in WANTED who was the winner until the final few strides at Flemington. SHELLSCRAPE is an include due to the rain about the track – the Chris Waller trained horse is a real mudlark who wasn’t too far away last start and may go better in the wet.
Take 8, 5, 7 for safety, 7 & 5 for the risk
Leg 2: The Randwick legs start with a very good race in the Royal Sovereign Stakes. You’d have to suspect there are only three main chances in MANHATTAN RAIN, DEMERIT and MORE THAN GREAT.
Take 1, 2, 4, and try 1, 2 for the shorter risk
Leg 3: Back to the Valley. This race should play into ZARITA who is on a last prep before heading out to the breeding barn. With $1.5m in winnings, she gets in light due to the weight-for-age. She will be short but should be winning. In case of a failure, we’ve always liked SILVERCITYMISS and could threaten an upset at odds.
Take the 1 as your standout, include the 8 for an at odds selection.
Leg 4: Gee this one is a toughy. The track is rated slow so the likes of MONTANA FLYER are on the up. We are going to go with a wide spread: MADAME PEDRILLE, STRAWBERRY FIELD, MONTANA FLYER and include BEJEWELLED if the track looks like getting to a heavy.
Take 2, 4, 6 and 8 in the mud
Leg 5: The last event at Moonee Valley is also tricky with a 2040m slog over a well worn soft track. AIGLON with a claim is worth a look if it can lead, ISHANT won here last start but may find his weight tough going, MY BENTLEY was a big favourite last start and should improve.
Take 2, 5, 8
Leg 6: The final leg and if you’re alive now it’s time to start laying off your bets and collecting no matter what happens. Laying with Betfair is the go for this (shoot through an email if you don’t have a clue about laying off once your multiples get up over a few legs). KRONER loves the wet, as does DREAMSCAPE and PINS ON PARADE is never too far away.
Take 1, 5, 6
With all the inclusions, $100 gets you 15.4%, and if you take the riskier options and leave a few out, $100 gets you 46% (of a potential $2m!). Don’t forget 10% of something is better than 100% of nothing so include those runners who might just have a chance in the weaker fields of Legs 4 & 5.
February 13th – TopPunter Tip of the Day
We haven’t had a TopPunter Tip of the Day on the website for a few weeks now but i couldn’t resist sharing this one with everyone. Our strike rate when going public with just 1 selection has been highly successful and i am confident we are going down the same patth again here. ). In the Group 2 – Light Fingers at Randwick I was amazed our selection was $1.90 with SportsBet as I am fairly confident this will start $1.70 at the highest later. I am highly recommending you take the fixed odds option this time as that’s what we have done with our Horse Managed Fund.
3.45pm – Randwick Race 5 – 1. MORE JOYOUS **Taken $1.90 fixed odds on SportsBet
Weekend Review
Another great weekend for us that starting with both our selections on Friday night at Mooney Valley winning at very nice odds. Our Early Mail for Saturday continued the good run with 2 more winners from our 4 selections giving us another 17% increase for the weekend on racing alone.
In the golf the PGA TOUR Bob Hope Classic we only eneded up with one head to head bet which saw Brian Gay beat Charles Howell III by 2 shots.
In the European Tour overnight we had a massive result with Martin Kaymer winning the Abu Dhabi Championship while our head to head bets ended with 1 win, 1 loss and a tie. All up our Sports fund had a whopping 31% increase!!
In the NFL our tip for the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl at $50 last weekend is looking good to take it all the way this week. The Jets got off to a flyer in the first half and did lead 17-3 at one stage before a late Indianapolis Colts fight back saw the deficit reduced to 17-14 at half time. I know a lot of you have chosen various ways to lay off your bet so I wish you all luck in what you have done.
January 23rd – The Theorist
The Theorist has sent though his best each way’s of the day. As always, he’s looking for the longer odds value bets, so look to get the best value on the bookies or totes.
Sandown
R5 #10 – Eau De Joie $5
R7 #6,11 – Trajet – $8 , Bad Angel $11
R8 #8,11 – Newgrange $51 , Saint Sebastian $12
Rosehill
R2 #5 – How Much My Love $8
R6 #9 – Don Luigi $51
Eagle Farm
R2 #11 Donny’s Magic $41
R5 #9 Bugsytwoshoes $8
R7 #3,14 Mr Nappy $10, Jungle Tessla $8
R8 #7 King Of The Kongo $4.20
Morphettville
R2 #6 Beltija $4.40
R5 #4 Mytika $12
R6 #9 Puerto Banus $4.20
R8 #4,9 Bluepoles $12.60, Snow Bunny $22.70
January 15th – The Theorist
The Theorist is back this week and has a few selections from Flemington, Eagle Farm and Morphettville. As always these are to be backed each way. Odds displayed in brackets are SportsBet Fixed Odds.
Flemington
Race 4 – 10. EPONA MISS ($151)
Race 5 – 7. DR NIPANDTUCK ($16)
Race 6 – 5. TEARS I CRY ($15) and 10. NOT A COPY ($17) **Suggested Duet bet
Race 8 – 7. BLUE COLLAR JILL ($21)
Eagle Farm
Race 1 – 12. SHYLOCK’S DAUGHTER ($15)
Race 5 – 11. CLEARLY VAIN ($151)
Race 8 – 6. TELLASECRET ($21)
Morphettville
Race 8 – 4. HOMICIDE HAWK (No Fixed Odds Available)
January 14th – Horse Racing Update
What a great time of it we have had lately. In the last 21 Horse Racing bets we have found a staggering 12 winners for a 57%. WE have shown patience when the bets haven’t been there for us and our Horse Managed Fund has reaped the benefits with a whopping 48% increase since Decmeber 19th.
I was hoping to post a standout selection from tonights excellent meeting but it was just a little too tough. I have told my subscribers the best value bet is probably Race 7 – 10. REPROBRATE who should be around the $7 mark. Of the favourites i like the look of Race 4 – 6. TOPI but am just a little concerned about the fact it’s never raced on the soggy surface before. Worth a bet if it gets out to $4 on Betfair.
RESULTS
In the 4th 6. TOPI had no luck running 2 and 3 wide the trip outside the leader the whole way and just ran out of puff in the final 50m running 5th. I wasn’t put off by this and think it may be a good chance next start. I was also super impressed by 2 other runners in the race in 3. SHERZANDO who really came home strongly while 9. STAR LEADER never saw daylight and looked as if it had plenty left in the saddle.
Meanwhile in the last race of the day those who followed the each way tip in 10. REPROBATE were laughing all the way to the bank when he won in strong fashion and was easily matched over $7 on Betfair.
**On another side note i was really impressed by one of our followed horses in 7. PINWHEEL who did it tough outside 1. BANKROBBER who set a strong tempo in the 5th race of the night. He was grabbed late by the very talented 2. NEWS ALERT but i am expeccting this horse to win some big races.