September 30th – Mooney Valley Preview
Here we go for the start of an action packed long weekend of Sports and Racing. We begin the weekend with a fantastic card at Mooney Valley and it is a shame to see that rain may see some of the big names scratch in favour of Sunday’s meeting at Flemington. Still there is plenty of action out there for us and hopefully we can find some winners too.
We start with the 2nd race of the day where BEL SHOES looks a good each way price on the back of 2 strong runs this prep behind Booklet and Irish Dream. It has drawn a little awkwardly but this horse has a great record and the track and will be primed to strike 3rd start in from a spell. In the 3rd race the action really starts to heat up but you’d have to be a huge fan to get on early favourite SATIN SHOES at the price. I stated at the start of its prep that it could really show something this spring and whilst winning that day it has found trouble its next 2 starts. I’m just not confident the Caulfield and Mooney Valley tracks are suitable for this horse who likes to see plenty of racing room.
Likewise in the 3rd race of the day you will be holding your breathe the entire race to see what DEFINITELY READY will come up with. The horse has obvious ability but seems to have one of those chronic breathing issues that plagues some horses. One its day it can rival the best and the Mooney Valley track is the most suitable for it but I can’t justify the shorts about it with those risks in place. Having said that many of its bigger dangers have drawn wide so it may get an easier run in front this time round. The Group 3 JRA Cup has been decimated by scratchings with many of the big guns moving to Flemington with the expected rainfall. Small fields can be really hard to find winners in with erratic racing patterns usually on the cards. Maybe SILENT SURROUND just gets the nod from me.
The big race of the night is the Group 1 Manikato Stakes and the expected showdown between young gun SEPOY and the seasoned MORE JOYOUS is in big doubt with connections of More Joyous suggesting the horse will be scratched if the rain turns up and the track gets to a Slow 7. Think Sepoy probably had her covered anyways as More Joyous’s only other trip to the Valley wasn’t great and Sepoy is flying at the moment. 3 weeks ago I saw one of the great runs for a horse on the rise in ATOMIC FORCE who copped plenty of rough treatment before just failing to win at the Valley. This horse could potentially be a really danger horse for Sepoy tonight and is more proven if the ground gets sticky.
The Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes is between the CHASE THE RAINBOW and WHISPER DOWNS for me. Again the wet track could be a query for both runners but based on the odds at this stage I’d have Whisper Downs on top as its last start was clinical and showed it is improving with every run. For the final race of the day I suggest you go home and save your cash as its rough. Potentially we could also be looking a pretty boggy surface by this stage which will alter many previous thoughts on the race as well. For the roughie punters you may get your chance to steal some last minute cash and if that’s the case I’d be leaning towards horses like RED BUTTONS or STONEBLACK
Our Early Mail Selections are:
7.15pm – Mooney Valley Race 2 – 6. BEL SHOES (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
10.15pm – Mooney Valley Race 8 – 6. RED BUTTONS (Currently $81)
August 27th – Caulfield Horse Racing Preview
We again preview Melbourne in the lead in to the big Spring races later in the season with Caulfield being the venue tomorrow. We start the day with a very well backed short priced favourite in PLUCKY BELLE who is held in high regard by the Peter Moody team. Moody is often know for throwing his horses out in the provincials to get their maiden win out of the way but last year Moody showed his hand with this filly by starting her in a Group 3 race at Flemington and it only just missed the mark. After a dominant win at Seymour in its next trip to the race track it opened at $2.25 before being crunched into $1.85 and they are still coming for her. With the target the Thousand Guineas in October you would want to see it put away what is a fairly weak field if it is going to challenge the boys in 6 weeks time.
In the 2nd fans of MISS GAI FLYER would have to assume the horse was not a fan of the wide open spaces of the Flemington circuit and will fare much better on the tight Caulfield track. LA PRALINE has been nursed along though it’s very short career and there would be plenty willing to jump back on board after a strong start earlier in the year. There a few other strong horses that may just find this a bit short first up. The 3rd race is a very open race making life very tough for a tipster. The good side of that is if you find a horse you like you are more than likely going to find value along with it. OCEAN CHALLENGER meets those conditions with a great record at the track and a solid first up run where it found a bit of trouble and looked to have a bit more to give. You’ve got to give plenty of credit to SIMPLY PUT who is another who had it tough in its first up race at Caulfield before dropping right off in the straight. This horse took on some really good horses beating Mid Summer Music before running 4th and 2nd in 2 group 3 events at the end of its last campaign.
The main early hopes for the Thousand Guineas are in action when the boys get their chance in the 4th race of the day. It’s a great field with plenty of hopes making it hard to stick your neck out on any one horse. TopPunter followers know I am a fan of GOLDEN ARCHER who lost no favours when running a distant 2nd to Sepoy last start as it comfortably held the others at bay. SATIN SHOES proved it is a genuine threat to the top 3yr olds in the country with a strong win last time round. A wide barrier draw does concern me with him though. I’m surprised DO YOU THINK wasn’t trialled leading into this after it was such a successful method in its opening campaign. Fair chance it will be up and ready to go here though. I actually think the best odds in the race are for GLISSADE who will be much more suited to the firmer surface and the step up to the 1200m this week. For the future punters it could be worth a crack to win the Thousand Guineas at a tidy $31.
To the 5th race and there is a standout selection for me in TESTASCANA who has been dominating every field it comes across for much of its career. The big query here is the very wide draw but this horse has shown the ability to lead or chase with similar results suggesting that as long as it isn’t stranded out wide without cover for the entire race. There are some talented horses in this field but I think he has a jump on them.
Next we get to the feature race of the day being the Group 2 Memsie Stakes and fairly strong field to contest. HEART OF DREAMS has been fairly consistent first up in the past so you’d have to think it will go close here but the odds are a bit skinny for me. There was a lot to like about PRINCE OBAMA’s last run when it was only just beaten by super horse Whobegotyou when $101 with the bookies. No reason to think it can’t do the same again here. With the majority of runners being either first or second up in this race you are really betting with faith.
In the 7th race it’s hard not to follow the money behind the Newcastle trained galloper ATOMIC FORCE who makes his Melbourne debut tomorrow. It rarely runs a bad race and the improving track conditions mean if it handles the Victorian way of going you’d have to think it’s a massive chance. Caulfield is not a track that encourages me for a Victorian debut so I’ll just watch with interest. AVENUE is another who catches the eye with a tremendous record on top of the ground and has tasted plenty of success here. A wide barrier isn’t a great sign though as I’m sure connections would like to see it roll to the front. Controversially ACORNS has drawn to get a really easy run and although its last first up effort was against a much weaker field it has to be a seriously contender here.
The final race of the day is also the toughest and for the Quaddie and Big 6 punters I think the dividends will be massive as it caps off what is a good watching but not fun betting day at Caulfield. I generally stick with the rule of when I doubt go with track form and Caulfield is definitely one of those tracks where it holds strong. That said my favour leans towards TIME MATTERS, MR GRISWOLD and CARNERO.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.40pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 9. DANCING ATTENDANCE
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
2.50pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 2. RED DRESS MARLEY
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
2.58pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 6. TESTASCANA
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
3.41pm – Doomben Race 6 – 3. BELLTRIST
(Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
5.50pm – Belmont Race 6 – 8. LIKE AN EAGLE
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.45pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 6. SIMPLY PUT (Currently $12)
2.05pm – Rosehill Race 3 – 7. RASBERRIES (Currently $13)
3.06pm – Doomben Race 5 – 9. PENNY LOUISE (Currently $21)
August 5th – Flemington Preview
Flemington is the place to be on Saturday as we have some great fields and at this stage the weather is doing its best to stay sunny and keep the tracks in great condition for racing. We start the day off there with a cracking race which I hope isn’t ruined by the small field and a possible muddling tempo. I have a high opinion of DANCE WITH HER, which was a tad disappointing last start, and SIDECAR who won in strong fashion at its last start. I probably tip the ledger towards Sidecar based on last efforts but I don’t want to get involved here. In the 2nd there has been strong support for CLUB COMMAND who won its maiden race at Seymour in comfortable fashion a few weeks ago but this is a huge step up in class. For me MOTORISED was much more convincing against a better class of horse so would be better value at slightly better odds.
In the 3rd we see impressive last start winner in THERE’S ONLY ONE go up against BONDARENKO who should’ve finished a lot closer the 5th last start when one of our Best Roughie picks. There’s Only One gets the nod for me with the strong finishing burst and a significant weight drop from its last start victory. In the 4th race it’s hard to see MR GRISWOLD repeating its last start heroics with another win. The horse has drawn wide and there is no significant speed in the race to give it a good drop into the race. CABEZA had a good win first up last preparation at Flemington so would have to be considered a strong chance again here. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a long shot blow in especially with the amount of international raiders in the race along with SANRIO who looks well placed for this race.
The 5th race is a real drop in class from the other races. Normally this works in our favour as there is a standout horse that isn’t in the same grade as the others but no in this case. The favoured horses have a few pluses but too many negatives to get involved. PRUSSIAN STORM looks decent value but will need a easy run as it is at the limit, if not passed its distance. In the 6th race PERTUBO is and deserves to be favourite on the back of a couple of really strong wins its past 2 starts. Again it meets some good opposition here but it will definitely be somewhere around the finish. Very tempting to have it as an early mail pick but horses like OFFENDERS and MISS GAI FLYER who both have a great first up record and the drying track goes more in their favour too.
LETHAL ARROW proved me wrong last week when he won for the 3rd time in succession. Looked to be stretched to its limit in winning but hard to argue with winning form. It meets a fairly weak field in the 7th with most horses who have form have been racing far inferior opposition. Would be a hypocrite to jump on board after being against it last week. For the last race of the day at Flemington I’ve got WINGED CHARM on top although the huge weight is a concern. Might be better off going something with slightly better odds in MODEL TO NITE who has been racing well at the provincials.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.15pm – Flemington Race 3 – 2. THERE’S ONLY ONE (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.40pm – Eagle Farm 5 – 10. PEELINGS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.10pm – Randwick Race 7 – 6. WHISPEROSSA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.20pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 4. UXORIOUS (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.25pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 7. FELONY FLIGHT (Currently $10)
2.10pm – Randwick Race 4 – 6. THE WARRIOR WOMAN (Currently $13)
4.15pm – Belmont Race 5 – 7. ISABELLA MAREE (Currently $14)
August 1st – July Review
What a great month we have had so far. We don’t post all our tips on the website as we need to give some benefit to those who have subscribed to either the tipping service or are part of the Managed Funds. The funds take on board all our bets so they are a direct reflection on how we have been going.
After another great month we found a great 21% profit in our Horse Racing Managed Fund and 27% in our Sports Managed Fund. In fact our Sports Managed Fund customers have seen their investment almost triple in 2011 so far.
If you are interested in receiving more information or just want to subscribe for a free month trial then send me an email at brad@toppunter.net
July 15th – Horse Racing Preview
The weather continues to hold out for much of the country and the results are showing with some significant gains in recent weeks. For those who have been playing with the Weekend Ratings the consistency in weather generally means they become more of a helpful tool as well. In fact last weekend all 4 legs of the Eagle Farm quaddie went to the TopRated horse. That means for $1 you could have collect the $480 collect on offer. These ratings can be a gold mine as we get towards the spring and the pools get bigger and bigger.
To tomorrows racing and Rosehill is the feature meeting again with a solid 8 race card. We get into the action straight away with HURRARA looking the goods in the first race of the day. A return to form with a strong win last start at Rosehill puts it in good stead here. With super jock Nash Rawiller onboard we can expect it to be coming along strong. In the 2nd MISS MARX looks another strong prospect with its recent great form. I’m still a little concerned over the 1400m which it found a bit too far last start so I’ll leave it alone this time round but keep it safe.
The scratching of topweight Queenian is a big disappointment in the 3rd race of the day. This horse won really well for us last start and I was expecting it to be right in this. I have no doubt the scratching had to do with the fact it drew barrier 16. The leaves the race wide open and it is too hard to find a winner here. In the 4th race there has been strong support for WAZN who won impressively last time round at the 2000m. This race again looks really well suited and with only 52.5kgs to take around after the jockey claim it is going to be very tough to beat.
In the 5th race I think there is great value about COUNTERPANE who is nearing double figure odds and always races well fresh. Back to the 1200m where I think it is suited best and has a number of runs under its belt at the Rosehill track. A little bit of overnight rain should just do enough to take the sting out for her as well. It does have some stiff opposition in RAIN MELODY who had an impressive win last start here, DUBLETTE who has found its legs in its most recent starts and DIVYA who loves the Rosehill track with 2 wins and placing from its 3 starts here.
Hard to know what to make of the 6th race of the day which has a strong field for the Winter Stakes. Favourite and well supported SCARF would’ve been a short priced favourite before its last start flop where it never really got into things. It appeared as though it had enough of racing and was ready for a spell but Snowden could easily get its game face back on for this race. I’m keen to see the run of EQUABLE who has made its way back home after a couple of tough runs during the winter carnival in Brisbane. Comes into this race with a nice weight and could roll to the front from the nice draw.
BRAYROAN has been strongly supported in early betting in the 7th race of the day. It’s not unusual for Brayroan to be strongly supported but it doesn’t always produce. Its first up run was solid and clearly it wasn’t at peak fitness for the hit out. A big weight and inexperienced jockey are causes of concern for me. FUTURE SOLUTION is in a similar position with a heft weight rise a concern even though the form line around the horse is very impressive with a close 2nd to Hidden Gem here last start (Hidden Gem won very impressively last weekend). OTHELLO is another racing well but drawn a bit wide so will need some luck early. The lightly raced HUQUI could easily upset all of these horses in only its 3rd career run. Definitely a massive jump in class but it did beat the talented Raspberries in its maiden race and comes into this race carrying only 50kg after the claim.
To the last race of the day and UNANIMOUSLY is the form horse for me here. A good run last start behind our Early Mail selection at the start on the day in Hurrara. Might be worth watching how Hurrara runs there before deciding to unload here. The query runner in the race is MASTER OF DESIGN who has been moved to the David Payne yard and has a ton of supporters of its talents. A new yard often brings a win and punters have jumped on early to shorten its quote.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.30pm – Rosehill Race 1 – 2. HURRARA (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
12.35pm – Morphettville Race 1 – 2. SAFETY IN NUMBERS (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
12.45pm – Caulfield Race 2 – 4. YOU THINK SO (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.05pm – Doomben Race 4 – 2. AQUATORIAL (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
2.15pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 7. WAZN (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.31pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 2. MYTHICAL SPIRIT (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
6.00pm – Belmont Race 7 – 12. KELIA (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.20pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 9. INVINCIBLE JESS (Currently $12)
3.30pm – Belmont Race 3 – 1. LIE IN WAIT (Currently $12)
4.00pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 14. HUQUI (Currently $31)
5.20pm – Belmont Race 6 – 6. SOUTHERN COMFORT (Currently $16)
June 10th – Stradbroke Handicap Day Preview
The best day of the Winter Carnival is in Brisbane this weekend for the running of the Stradbroke Handicap along with 2 other Group 1’s. This used to be a must do event in Brisbane at with the running of the Brisbane Cup on the Monday to make it a great long weekend. For those real sport enthusiasts every 2nd year (not this one) you could even stick around for 2 more days and go to the State of Origin (NRL) at Suncorp Stadium. One of the great sporting events in what I believe to be the best stadium for sport in Australia (Sorry MCG comes a close 2nd). Unfortunately similar to the movements with the Autumn Carnival in Sydney they have combined the Stradbroke with the Brisbane Cup to create a “super” day.
To tomorrows racing and there are massive fields in Eagle Farm and a lot of work to go through. I will try and keep the reviews to the basics so as not to confuse or look like I am just trying to cover my bases. In the 1st I was disappointed to see CINDAROCKINRELLA draw wide as I thought it was worth another crack this week. If you’re betting on Betfair and it gets over easily at the start then it could be worth loading up. It’s too short for favourite LUCKY MORNA who will be my first lay bet of the day at that price. Takes too long to wind up making the 1200m way to slippery for it. With a few of the good chances drawing wide I think the top pick has to go to BELLE D’ARMOUR who was strong last start against Free Wheeling.
The 1000m scamper is next on the card and whilst it isn’t a hugely strong field it is a fairly even one. TEMPLE OF BOOM has a great record over the track and distance and although its first up, it has produced 4 wins from 5 starts when fresh. Of the challengers I think BEETHOG has been getting stronger as it gets older. Connections seem to have learnt to keep it fairly fresh between runs and the results are showing that there are on the mark. Finally ADEBSI produced a strong last start win, however, I find it is too inconsistent to follow long term.
ST GERMAINE again looks a strong chance in its 3rd run in Australia. The 3rd race is another huge field which I think puts some doubt in the horse even though I think it has obvious ability. Seems to leave its run too late. If it takes too long to wind up, a horse like EQUABLE could get the jump on her and have plenty of trouble of chasing him down in the straight. ABSENT FRIENDS could also be a contender it manages to find cover from the wide draw.
The 4th race is the Brisbane Cup and looks all for GLASS HARMONIUM after a strong win last start against much tougher opposition than this. The Irish galloper has real class and should be a major contender in the spring as well.
The TJ Smith over the mile is the first Group 1 of the day and HOT SNITZEL is firmly in the minds of the bookings after he stung them last week when they let his price slide and the punters jumped on late. The Snitzel colt repaid those who didn’t lose faith (like us!) with a commanding win. Having said all that I think it should win again but its price is too skinny from the wide draw. 2 starts ago it drew wide and had a horror run and just lost its fire in the straight. I think with BENFICA drawn inside him it is more likely to get a better run in transit and could be tough to hold out when the whips are cracking.
The 6th race is the Group 1 Queensland Derby over 2400m and I am a little surprised that SHOOTOFF has been backed in as favourite even though conditions are drying the track out and Shootoff has a shocking record on the firm surface. I think CHARING CROSS looks much more appealing at the $20 mark with some solid form in Sydney before heading north. SHEZ SENSATIONAL had a strong Oaks run last weekend and should be right in the mix here whilst HEIDILICIOUS had poor barrier manners once again in the Oaks when it reared at the start costing it any chance. Not the first time it’s done so and once again it flew home when the race was over. If this horse ever jumps with them and settle she will win some big races.
The Stradbroke Handicap is the feature event of the day and it is a great field to challenge for Group 1 glory. I’m giving my top pick to BLACK PIRANHA who is trying to win its 3rd straight Stradbroke. That clearly shows the love for this track and distance and it is primed for the race after a fast finishing 3rd behind BEADED in the Doomben 10,000 a fortnight ago. Beaded was very strong in that race also but I just feel that Black Piranha will be more suited here. I thought WOORIM might have been a strong contender had it not drawn a very wide barrier. It was more than likely going to go back from the start anyway so assuming it finds cover it could finish the race off. Having said that if you like him then the drying track means THANKGODYOU’REHERE is a much better prospect after doing everything but win against Woorim last start whilst having a much more impressive dry track form. Include ZERO ROCK for the multiples as a light weight hope as it will try and scoot across at the start and could give them something to chase down the stretch.
The last race is a really tough one to pick. A lot of the strong chances have drawn wide and in such a big field of 3 year olds it is a nightmare to standout anything. I know many of you love the Quaddie’s and Big 6 bets so my selections would be SKILLED, STEEL ZIP and BIANCA JEWEL.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.35pm – Flemington Race 4 – 2. PERTURBO (3% Win)
1.45pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 1. GLASS HARMONIUM (5% Win)
2.03pm – Morphettville Race 4 – 6. RULING TO WIN(3% Win)
3.55pm – Belmont Race 4 – 2. GUM NUT GURU (1% Each Way)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
3.00pm – Eagle Farm Race 6 – 9. CHARING CROSS (Currently $21)
4.00pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 9. AVOCA STREET (Currently $26)
June 4th – Queensland Oaks Day Preview
Eagle Farm is again the venue for racing with the Winter Carnival in full swing and a heap of Group 2’s and the Group 1 Queensland Oaks to keep us all entertained. The weather has turned on another fantastic day and hopefully the results follow suit.
The first race of the day looked at first glance to be a pass me by till you look closely at the field. Normally a Class 6 race wouldn’t excite on such a big day but this field is really strong and very even. Hard to get too involved in the race with some big warning signs thanks to a betting plunge on WORLD WIDE who has firmed up dramatically overnight. I wasn’t really that impressed with its last start at Nowra, albeit under a huge weight, but someone is obviously very confident. Would lean towards HEARTSHAKER as my top pick but you’d want the ground to stay no worse than dead as he has a poor record on the firm surfaces. SEE YOU looked promising in the straight last week and should be fitter again for the run. It just needs a bit of luck in the straight to get a clean run and it will be finishing fast.
We get straight into the big races in race 2 with the running of the Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup and it is a stellar field worthy or a Group 1 race. I’m giving my top pick to GLASS HARMONIUM who was given a crazy ride from Hugh Bowman last start when it took off mid race and was run down on the post in a tight finish of the Doomben Cup. No surprise to see connections have gone with a new jockey here and hopefully a better result. SCENIC SHOT keeps producing big runs in big races and has to be considered a threat but I think the Irish horse has the goods on it this week.
In the 3rd race of the day Kiwi raider ST GERMAINE made an impressive debut when making steady ground at the end for a 2nd place finish. Gets some nice weight relief in a race that looks fairly average on paper. MYSTICAL GREY looks massively over the odds after a really strong win on the cushion track at Sunshine Coast last start. This is a step up in class but it has done that before with strong results. A nice firm track would definitely be an advantage.
Back to the Group racing in the 4th with the Group 2 Sires Produce Stakes. I am amazed to see the lack of confidence surrounding HOT SNITZEL who went down as a short priced favourite last start. The horse never really settled last start and was stuck 3 wide coming to the turn and found FREE WHEELING too strong in the straight. Incredibly there has been a jockey merry-go-round between the horses with Bowman and Brown switching horses for the race. BENFICA was another Snowden trained horse that looked strong in its last start win and will provide some tough competition.
The Group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes is next on the list and we are hit by a huge and very even field to contest. KANZAN deserves to be one of the favoured runners after a hard fought win last start at Doomben. Having said that you’d have to rate ZERO ROCK on top of her considering it had a much tougher run and was only just beaten on the post last start. Zero Rock also meets Kanzan a kilo better off in the weights as well. I’m keen to see how YOSEI handles the Eagle Farm track after impressing me with its first up run at Flemington behind Doubleanny. The Stuart Webb camp have been whispering around the tracks that this horse is ready to roll.
The Group 2 racing continues with the QTC Cup the 6th race on the card. SINCERO goes in the solid favourite as it looks to prepare for the Stradbroke next weekend. Has been in great form and this races looks very suitable although it is a strong field. VAREENA MISS made a very good race debut in QLD with a win at Doomben but has drawn horrendously and will need luck to get a clean run here. MOTSPUR catches the eye at big odds and could be the blow out horse. Trainer Kris Lees took the horse to Eagle Farm last year for a run and it was very impressive in winning. With back to back wins at Rosehill and Scone its past 2 starts you’d have to think connections are feeling a little confident of producing an upset.
To the feature of the day and the running of the Group 1 Queensland Oaks over 2400m. Last week we spoke of the confidence surround NZ stayer SCARLETT LADY and after a strong first up win in Australia she has taken favouritism here. FILLYDELPHIA is another racing in good form but does need some luck in the straight. Rolled forward last time round form a wide barrier so may do the same again here. SAVANNAH’S CHOICE has been the bridesmaid in its last 3 starts but might get a soft sit here. Don’t see a lot of pace in this race and if it gets away with it easy it could make it really tough to run it down.
The final race of the day puts forward a few chances but I think whilst I often say to go home early I think it’s worth hanging around. CELTIC DANCER has drawn barrier 20! but showed last start that it has the heart to work hard and still produce an effort. Worth a dig in your multiples at massive odds. SPIRIT OF BOOM you know is going to finishing strong. The question is will it have enough time to hit the front. READY TO RIP looks well placed in the race and is undefeated at the track in 2 starts here.
Around the country there are some good betting opportunities around which is in stark contrast to last weekend that was very tough. No stand out 5% selections but a string of solid 2% and 3% selections that could leave you with some good cash in your pocket at the end of the day.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.25pm – Sandown Race 2 – 4. SHYLOCK’S DAUGHTER (3% Win)
12.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 2 – 4. GLASS HARMONIUM (2% Win)
1.30pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 10. FOXSTAR (1% Each Way)
1.55pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 1. HOT SNITZEL (2% Win)
3.30pm – Rosehill Race 7 – 14. OFORAWESOME (2% Win)
3.35pm – Belmont Race 3 – 3. REIMBURSMENT (3% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.20pm – Eagle Farm Race 3 – 14. MYSTICAL GREY (Currently $34)
4.10pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 7. PRIOR BARON (Currently $26)
4.18pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 10. ROWDY ROCKER (Currently $15)
4.35pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 5. CELTIC DANCER (Currently $51)
May 21st – Doomben Cup Day Preview
Doomben is the main race meeting this weekend with the Winter Carnival in full swing.
We get into the action nice and early with a watch on VAREENA MISS in the 1st race. This horse really impressed me in its Victorian form and I would expect that to continue up north. Not keen to take the $2.40 on offer at the moment with its first run in QLD but I do expect it to be right in the finish.
In the 2nd I thought SNOW ALERT could be worth another crack. He got way too far back in the Scone Cup and with the smaller field I can’t see Michael Rodd letting them get too far in front of him entering the straight. Again I think the price is a bit thin for me to make it an Early Mail tip.
The 3rd race is all but a given and we will lock in the $1.80 available for strong favourite HOT SNITZEL in the Group 2 Champagne Classic. Sniztel brained his rivals last start at the Gold Coast and a repeat performance here is expected. For those who like the multiples with the short favourites I am expecting a strong first up run from INTERNAL REVENUE.
I would expect that DIVORCES will be strongly supported in the 4th race on the back of a strong win last start. Whilst it did look strong in the finish it definitely found the better going in the centre of the track and was superbly ridden by Hugh Bowman who again take the reins. I’m thinking this will be a lot tougher and I think the price on offer is too skinny for me. I think BECCERA rates a much nicer prospect for a small investment on the race at huge odds. Meanwhile the confidence from the New Zealand camp relating to SCARLETT LADY is extremely positive with a strong first run in Australia expected.
The 5th race….WOW…. not a chance of finding a winning chance in this race. For the multi / quaddie punters you will need to go wide or get lucky because I could name 12 horses that could easily win this race.
In the 6th I was tempted by topweight BOLD GLANCE based on the 2 strong Sydney runs during the Autumn Carnival but its form at Doomben is terrible. I’ll pass but can easily see how people will be jumping on board. THANKGODYOU’REHERE will be another who is favoured by the punters with some good credentials on its back. However, anyone who watched the last run at the Gold coast it appeared to have run out of steam in the concluding stages and that is a huge worry here. Should be fitter for the run but if it has to use petrol from the wide barrier to find a position it could be found wanting in the straight. TAMPIKO, meanwhile has been unwanted in betting and I can’t really see why. A strong winner last start and I think a much better prospect that the above 2 mentioned horses. However, my top pick in the race goes to LISTEN SON who has been specked in betting its last couple of runs and the stable is feeling very confident again this time round. Had terrible luck in running last start and will be better for it this time round.
To the feature event of the day, the Group 1 Doomben Cup and it’s a smoking hot field to contest. The former Queen’s horse MY KINGDOM OF FIFE has looked unbeatable in its past 3 wins and is easy to see why it could go one further here. It does meet some stiff opposition this time round though in SHOOT OUT, who made strong ground on it last start but does have a poor record at Doomben. The real watch is GLASS HARMONIUM who made a strong Australian debut finishing a close up 2nd to My Kingdom and jockey Hugh Bowman suggested it had a tough run and would easily beat it next time round.
The last race is much the same as the 5th race with it almost impossible to tip a winner. At least the 5th race had some good form to go by. This race is fairly ordinary considering the rest of the day and I would recommend not going near the Quaddie tomorrow as even if you survive the suicide 5th race you are surely gone in this one.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.15pm – Doomben Race 3 – 1. HOT SNITZEL
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.04pm – Belmont Race 1 – 1. MABEL GRACE
(Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
2.16pm – Flemington Race 5 – 6. PERTURBO
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.00pm – Doomben Race 6 – 10. LISTEN SON
(Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
5.20pm – Belmont Race 6 – 7. REIMBURSMENT
(Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughie Selections are:
1.50pm – Doomben Race 4 – 6. BECCERA (Currently $41)
2.51pm – Flemington Race 6 – 10. HIPHOPOPOTAMUS (Currently $13)
4.35pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 3. MARTIN PLACE (Currently $26)
May 12th – Scone Cup Day Preview
The Scone Cup is on the card tomorrow and deserves a mention as the biggest Country Cup (I’m pretty sure??). Quality fields across the board and I’ve always found Scone to be a fairly consistent track and good to bet at. I did have a good look through the card and unfortunately only came up with one standout selection for us but it is a 5% one. BORDER REBEL just looks like it wins tomorrow in the Scone Quality. This horse has had 2 starts here before for wins and is just a super consistent horse that really gives them something to chase. I think it is a good field but it should have the edge and I really expected a price tag closer to $2.00.
For the Cup race I am putting HIDDEN WONDER just in front of SNOW ALERT and FANJURA.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
3.27pm – Scone Race 6 – 2. BORDER REBEL (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) **We’ll lock in the $2.70 available as I am very confident that will shorten in by tomorrow.
April 29th – Hawkesbury Guineas Race Preview
Great race to start the day at Hawkesbury with a lot of speed likely in the 1st race. The reason this is a bit exciting is this track is more favourable to the front runners with a sharp final turn and reasonably short and skinny straight, however, if the speed is on it should make for an across the track finish. I was leaning towards MASCARERI, who has been freshened up for this and will be loving the falling rain and GIRLS GO RACING, who is a consistent galloper who will roll back from the gate and should get its speed on down the straight. MYALLA GOLD who has registered 4 wins from 6 starts but I have to question its opposition in its short career. Wet weather not a worry for her but I think the price is a bit short for me. My top pick clearly go to SEE THE WORLD who produced a fantastic first up run and looks a huge chance to continue that form with the light weight here.
The kids run round in race 2 and on the wet track you would be foolish to throw your money down on any horse unless you had inside information.
To the 3rd and international raider FORETELLER is a strong favourite after a strong run behind proven wet tracker Mr Unforgettable in its first Australian start. That form line reads in nicely against this weak field, however, you have to a lot of faith in the horse who will be dragging over 60 kgs through the mud tomorrow. For me KONTIKI PARK represents much better value with an impressive first up record and strong wet track form.
The 4th race is over 2250m and will require a strong horse to run the distance tomorrow. SANDBERG has been strongly supported with the inclement weather dampening the track but its failed to fire when it has had to step up to this class before making me somewhat sceptical. Having said that this field doesn’t look that strong. SPLENDID HONOURS looks way over the odds with a strong win last start.
The 5th is a very open race and its going to be hard to be confident of a winner. Many will jump on ZINGALING and KANZAN who both are very consistent gallopers but there a few negatives with each horse. Whilst Zingaling can handle all track conditions I’m not so sure it has had to carry the topweight in such an open field from a wide barrier. Kanzan just gets a nod on it for mine with a much better record in the wet conditions. Not sure how fit it will be 2nd up but if it’s ready it will be right in the finish. FLYING SUCCESS seems to do its best work when it’s up to its ears in mud so you’d have to think it’s a strong chance in this race
Tipping doesn’t get any easier in the 6th race of the day with a field full of mud larks to contest. The obvious first choice is MR UNFORGETTABLE who famously won the last race ever called by John Tapp when on a boggy track. A great win last start in the wet suggests he is right in this again. ALTERED BOY is another who wants the rain to continuing bucketing down and on the back a great run behind Group 1 winner My Kingdom of Fife last start you would have to think it’s a serious contender.
In the feature race, The Hawkesbury Guineas, I’m not surprised to see TORIO’S QUEST the strongly supported favourite after it was scratched a fortnight ago from Rosehill in order to contest the Gosford Guineas. That meeting was abandoned due to the wet weather in the end and the horse ended up having a exhibition gallop at Newcastle which was super. Although it hasn’t been on the really heavy going it did win the Magic Millions Guineas on a slow track in strong fashion. The trainer appears very cagey when interviewed about its chances in recent weeks suggesting he also thinks he’s got a winner on his hands.
I suggest walking out after hopefully securing a winner in the Guineas as the last race doesn’t give must interest at all. For the Quaddie and Big 6 punters (There is a $500,000 guaranteed pool in the Big 6 this week) I would be including EMPEROR BIG NOSE, CINCINATTI SIOUX and BEREFT.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.30pm– Hawkesbury Race 1 – 9. SEE THE WORLD (3% Win)
1.20pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 3. MOSHE (2% Win)
2.05pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 4. SHUFFLE THE CASH (1% Each Way)
4.15pm – Hawkesbury Race 7 – 2. TORIO’S QUEST (2% Win)
4.20pm – Ascot Race 4 – 3. MIO FRATELLO (5% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
2.15pm – Hawkesbury Race 4 – 6. SPLENDID HONOURS (Currently $15)
3.15pm – Caulfield Race 6 – 10. BOOM ‘N’ ZOOM (Currently $14)
4.42pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 13. PUMPLECHOOK (Currently $13)
6.15pm – Ascot Race 7 – 5. EL YONG (Currently $16)
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