May 12th – Scone Cup Day Preview
The Scone Cup is on the card tomorrow and deserves a mention as the biggest Country Cup (I’m pretty sure??). Quality fields across the board and I’ve always found Scone to be a fairly consistent track and good to bet at. I did have a good look through the card and unfortunately only came up with one standout selection for us but it is a 5% one. BORDER REBEL just looks like it wins tomorrow in the Scone Quality. This horse has had 2 starts here before for wins and is just a super consistent horse that really gives them something to chase. I think it is a good field but it should have the edge and I really expected a price tag closer to $2.00.
For the Cup race I am putting HIDDEN WONDER just in front of SNOW ALERT and FANJURA.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
3.27pm – Scone Race 6 – 2. BORDER REBEL (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) **We’ll lock in the $2.70 available as I am very confident that will shorten in by tomorrow.
April 29th – Hawkesbury Guineas Race Preview
Great race to start the day at Hawkesbury with a lot of speed likely in the 1st race. The reason this is a bit exciting is this track is more favourable to the front runners with a sharp final turn and reasonably short and skinny straight, however, if the speed is on it should make for an across the track finish. I was leaning towards MASCARERI, who has been freshened up for this and will be loving the falling rain and GIRLS GO RACING, who is a consistent galloper who will roll back from the gate and should get its speed on down the straight. MYALLA GOLD who has registered 4 wins from 6 starts but I have to question its opposition in its short career. Wet weather not a worry for her but I think the price is a bit short for me. My top pick clearly go to SEE THE WORLD who produced a fantastic first up run and looks a huge chance to continue that form with the light weight here.
The kids run round in race 2 and on the wet track you would be foolish to throw your money down on any horse unless you had inside information.
To the 3rd and international raider FORETELLER is a strong favourite after a strong run behind proven wet tracker Mr Unforgettable in its first Australian start. That form line reads in nicely against this weak field, however, you have to a lot of faith in the horse who will be dragging over 60 kgs through the mud tomorrow. For me KONTIKI PARK represents much better value with an impressive first up record and strong wet track form.
The 4th race is over 2250m and will require a strong horse to run the distance tomorrow. SANDBERG has been strongly supported with the inclement weather dampening the track but its failed to fire when it has had to step up to this class before making me somewhat sceptical. Having said that this field doesn’t look that strong. SPLENDID HONOURS looks way over the odds with a strong win last start.
The 5th is a very open race and its going to be hard to be confident of a winner. Many will jump on ZINGALING and KANZAN who both are very consistent gallopers but there a few negatives with each horse. Whilst Zingaling can handle all track conditions I’m not so sure it has had to carry the topweight in such an open field from a wide barrier. Kanzan just gets a nod on it for mine with a much better record in the wet conditions. Not sure how fit it will be 2nd up but if it’s ready it will be right in the finish. FLYING SUCCESS seems to do its best work when it’s up to its ears in mud so you’d have to think it’s a strong chance in this race
Tipping doesn’t get any easier in the 6th race of the day with a field full of mud larks to contest. The obvious first choice is MR UNFORGETTABLE who famously won the last race ever called by John Tapp when on a boggy track. A great win last start in the wet suggests he is right in this again. ALTERED BOY is another who wants the rain to continuing bucketing down and on the back a great run behind Group 1 winner My Kingdom of Fife last start you would have to think it’s a serious contender.
In the feature race, The Hawkesbury Guineas, I’m not surprised to see TORIO’S QUEST the strongly supported favourite after it was scratched a fortnight ago from Rosehill in order to contest the Gosford Guineas. That meeting was abandoned due to the wet weather in the end and the horse ended up having a exhibition gallop at Newcastle which was super. Although it hasn’t been on the really heavy going it did win the Magic Millions Guineas on a slow track in strong fashion. The trainer appears very cagey when interviewed about its chances in recent weeks suggesting he also thinks he’s got a winner on his hands.
I suggest walking out after hopefully securing a winner in the Guineas as the last race doesn’t give must interest at all. For the Quaddie and Big 6 punters (There is a $500,000 guaranteed pool in the Big 6 this week) I would be including EMPEROR BIG NOSE, CINCINATTI SIOUX and BEREFT.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.30pm– Hawkesbury Race 1 – 9. SEE THE WORLD (3% Win)
1.20pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 3. MOSHE (2% Win)
2.05pm – Eagle Farm Race 4 – 4. SHUFFLE THE CASH (1% Each Way)
4.15pm – Hawkesbury Race 7 – 2. TORIO’S QUEST (2% Win)
4.20pm – Ascot Race 4 – 3. MIO FRATELLO (5% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
2.15pm – Hawkesbury Race 4 – 6. SPLENDID HONOURS (Currently $15)
3.15pm – Caulfield Race 6 – 10. BOOM ‘N’ ZOOM (Currently $14)
4.42pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 13. PUMPLECHOOK (Currently $13)
6.15pm – Ascot Race 7 – 5. EL YONG (Currently $16)
April 15th – Doncaster Day Preview and Bets
Doncaster Day is the feature meeting this weekend and Royal Randwick and it is some reasonably strong fields across the board in all races.
Racing gets under way with the young guns in the first and I’m really keen to see SALADE take to the track again after getting too far back in the Golden Slipper which was only its 2nd career start. Salade won really well first start and did make strong ground in the Slipper so against a much weaker field here I will be keen to see if it returns to the winners circle. DARCI BE GOOD represents excellent value and looks like it will really appreciate the extra distance with some fast finishing runs in its 2 starts to date.
Race 2 sees SCREEN go out the favourite after having a short 2 month spell after a great prep last start that finished with 2 strong wins. The Snowden camp is in good form and you’d expect Screen to be at her best after the freshen up. Keen to see how GENERAL SECRETARY handles the grade in Sydney after moving down from QLD. Think it is well below the odds for a first up assault but worth a watch. The 3rd race is a bit average and it’s hard to recommend anything in particular. EMPRESS ROCK was a little disappointing in the Golden Slipper but his previous run suggested it may have some talent so don’t give up on her. SWERTE BELLA should certainly be a lot shorter in odds after performing well in its only career start. Swerte Bella ran 2nd to Glissade who is a class act. Only question mark is why it only had the 1 start before having a long spell.
To the 4th race and SEA LORD is the first to catch the eye after some strong runs in recent times. Always needs a bit of luck in the straight but Randwick is a suitable track for it. Any rain will help its cause. Hard to argue with 2 wins from 2 starts with the favourite LIGHTINTHENITE, however, this is a reasonable step up in class. To the 5th and it’s a very even field that makes it tough to find a standout again. HAWK ISLAND rarely runs a bad race and has an excellent record over the track and distance. RAINBOW STYLING would have to be considered a huge chance after a strong run first up in the Queens Cup. You’d have to think 2nd up it will be much fitter and ready to run a strong 2000m this time. I think GALIZANI is a bit of a weak favourite. Definitely got a chance but I think its $3 price tag is a bit weak.
We finally get to the first of 3 Group 1’s on the card and SHAMROCKER goes out a solid favourite in the AJC OAKS after a solid win against the boys last weekend. Really showed its class last week and also showed what a strong animal it is down the stretch by grinding out a win when it appeared as though Retrieve had pinched a good break. I am a little wary of a 3 yr old filly backing up with only a week break in between but the trainer sounded confident she would be ready to roll again this weekend. BRAZILIAN PULSE looks a much better option for me at the odds. A really tough campaigner who seems to find trouble in most of her races. Rarely does that shirk her though and I would expect her to be right in the finish when the whips are cracking. Hard to fault the form of MIRJULISA LASS who was a dominant winner a few weeks ago. Incredibly still finds herself at double figure odds again though which seems a bit generous here. For the long shot punters CRAFT IRNA again gets a look in on the back of a solid win last start against weaker opposition.
Had to have a bit of a chuckle to myself this week that every tipster is trying to find something to beat MORE JOYOUS in the feature race of the day, the Doncaster Mile. Has been in devastating form this preparation and boasts an impressive unbeaten record at Randwick to boot. So why do we need to look elsewhere? Sure it gives some good weight away to horses such as TRIPLE ELEGANCE (Down 7.5kgs from his last start). It’s definitely a solid field and anything can happen in a Doncaster Mile but I will be sticking with the horse who just keeps winning.
The 3rd Group 1 of the day is the Galaxy (8th) and it is a very open field and tough to find a solid looking favourite. I’m actually looking really wide here and think NEWS ALERT can return to form after finally getting some luck from the barrier draw. This horse is all class and always seems to pop up when the big races are on and with a slightly dampened track I think it increases its chances. KEEN COMMANDER is another who seems a bit over the odds when you line up the form line of its last run when it was beaten a head by Hay List. Loves the track and any rain that comes to Sydney make his chances get stronger by the second.
To end a tough days racing you have to be a miracle worker to find a winner in the last. To all the Quaddie and Big 6 punters I’m sorry but I really am not sure how to help you out here. Track condition and bias will play a huge part so you may need to keep an eye on that. Without much confidence ill lean towards LITTLE SURFER GIRL who was working home nicely at Rosehill last start. Maybe MR EDISON at the odds is worth a shot.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
12.25pm – Randwick Race 2 – 9. SCREEN (2% Win)
12.45pm – Flemington Race 2 – 4. GAIL (3% Win)
2.35pm – Flemington Race 5 – 2. AT THE HEADS (2% Win)
3.35pm –Randwick Race 7 – 1. MORE JOYOUS (5% Win)
4.25pm – Doomben Race 7 – 3. SLICE AND DICE (1% Each Way)
4.43pm – Morphettville Race 7 – 9. TAMPIKO (1% Each Way)
6.55pm – Ascot Race 7 – 1. MIO FRATELLO (2% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
11.50am – Randwick Race 1 – 7. DARCI BE GOOD (Currently $17)
3.05pm – Doomben Race 5 – 15. YUMMY (Currently $51)
3.23pm – Morphettville Race 5 – 11. EXCHANGES (Currently $15)
3.55pm – Flemington Race 7 – 11. GOLD SAND (Currently $15)
4.15pm – Randwick Race 8 – 5. NEWS ALERT (Currently $21)
April 2nd – Golden Slipper Day Review
Golden Slipper day is what’s on the card at Rosehill and obviously the main attraction for the day. The weather is on the improve and it looks like we should have a good track by the first race tomorrow. The day gets off to a great start with DO YOU THINK the standout selection in the opening race. This horse was incredibly dominant in its maiden race at Canterbury and I can’t see why it wouldn’t continue the run here in what appears to be a similar standard of racing. A relation to the great So You Think will have many punters jumping on its back during its career. The second race of the day sees RETRIEVE go out a very short favourite in the Group II Tulloch Stakes. I am a keen on the horse but think it’s a bit short in price for tomorrow. BLACKIE won in a tough gritty fashion last start which would normally be a big hook for me, however, the horse showed some abnormalities after the run and whilst it’s been given the all clear tomorrow I have to question its chances. I think if you line them up you’d have to think FAST CLIP is a better prospect after only just being beaten.
The first of the Group 1’s is next in the line with the Queen of the Turf Stakes. MORE JOYOUS is the standout selection on the back of a 3 strong wins in a row. The only time she looked in slight danger was when Whobegotyou came home like a steam train. Can’t even remotely suggest any upsets here. The Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes has BRAZILIAN PULSE as an easing favourite as many punters come for PINKER PINKER ($8 into $6). I think Brazilian Pulse looks a much stronger chance with the increase in distance but it will have some competition in FIBRILLATION who looked like it will love the step up to 2000m.
The Group 1’s continue with what is definitely the 2nd best race of the day with the THE BMW over 2400m. MALUCKYDAY should be a standout selection in this race but you have to question its last run when I got off the bit a long way from home. The horse picked up on the way home and really finished strongly but it did worry me a little. DESCARADO should’ve gotten over the top of ZAVITE in the home straight last start but showed no courage when the chips were thrown down.
The 4th Group 1 of the day is the George Ryder Stakes and we have a strong open field to contest. ALOHA made the girls in her class look second rate last start but has a significant weight rise and I think will struggle here. ILOVETHISCITY is still learning the tricks of the trade but has been improving with every run it puts together so I’d expect another bold showing here. DAO DAO has to be considered a strong chance of running in the placings on a the back of a great run last start.
Finally we get to the Golden Slipper and I am going to stick with SEPOY who had a little hiccup last start but was devastating before that. SMART MISSLE has got stronger with each start and has a win over Sepoy to its credit. SALADE was extremely impressive in its debut win. It will have to be very good to win from the wide barrier though. SHARED REFLECTIONS was very strongly supported last start and has to be one to be considered if you see the money come for it again.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
11.50am – Rosehill Race 1 – 2. DO YOU THINK (Managed Fund 5% Win)
1.25pm – Mooney Valley Race 3 – 2. MOSHE (Managed Fund 3% Win)
3.37pm – Mooney Valley Race 6 – 3. TAMPIKO (Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.25pm –Mooney Valley Race 7 – 6. FLAT CHAT (Managed Fund 5% Win)
5.00pm – Eagle Farm Race 7 – 1. FILLYDELPHIA (Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
1.15pm – Eagle Farm Race 2 – 3. WINMARA (Currently $12)
2.45pm – Mooney Valley Race 5 – 8. AFLASHYCAT (Currently $17)
March 10th – Horse Racing Preview (Sat 12th March)
What a cracking days racing we have in store with Flemington hosting the Australian Cup and the Newmarket Handicap whilst Warrick Farm has the Turnpoint Guineas to give us 3 Group 1 races in amongst a stack of other top quality fields. There is a lot of action to get through so we’ll see what we can get finished off today / tonight and if need be I’ll an update Saturday morning.
Flemington is our feature this week with the ratings and preview so we begin with Race 1 which sees the 2 Year old Fillies take on the straight 6 furlongs. METONYMY becomes our first selection of the day straight out on the blocks on the back of 2 strong runs this preparation. I thought its last start 4th was very strong even though it was well beaten by Sepoy (But then again who wasn’t). Definitely not denying it has some competition out there but I think it comes in really nicely for this race and is ready to produce its best. To the 2nd race and BIGELOW is the first horse that catches the eye on the back of some strong races in Spring last year yet it has been very easy in betting so far this week which concerns me. The only things that it could be in relation to are the extra weight and the fact it is running down the straight for the first time. (In fact all horses are running down the straight for the first time) Having said that it finished off really strongly to record a first up win at the Valley last start. KULGRINDA definitely meets it much better off at the weights but will be having its first start at the Flemington track so there are a few question marks over her chances. Also thought it should’ve won at Morphettville last start so I have a little query there. For the multiple betters I’d have to include LIKE A GUEST in with the chances with some strong runs against good opposition.
To the 3rd of the day and we have the first of the Group races with the Group 2 Sire’s Produce Stakes and HELMET goes out a strong favourite. Helmet actually won for us last start in impressive fashion but was very green in doing so. This horse obviously has a stack of ability and will become a great sprinter when it learns some manners, however, for now you’d have to have a lot of faith to back with it or against it especially now it will be running the opposite direction. MASTHEAD got plenty of admirers coming from well back in the Blue Diamond to finish a distant 3rd from Sepoy. The 4th race is the Group 2 Blamey Stakes and WHOBEGOTYOU is an odds on favourite in what is a fairly average field for him. Whobe was very strong in just failing to run down More Joyous last start and moves up an extra furlong to the mile where it has won 4 from 5 starts. DAODAO also ran well in the same race but was outsprinted by the other 2 and even though it gets off a little better with the weights I can’t see there being enough of a turn around to consider him a genuine threat.
To the 5th and the Kewney Stakes and I really thought BRAZILIAN PULSE would have opened up a bit shorten than the $5.50. Having said that I am not 100% convinced that it can win tomorrow first up over the 1400m as I feel it is best suited when it gets over more ground. SAYAHAILMARY shows a bit of talent but hasn’t quite produced that when coming over from South Australia to Victoria. DO RA MI could be a good chance at each way odds on the back of a strong 2nd last start. Notably in that race Shamrocker (Winner of the Australian Guineas last weekend) ran 4th putting some good form lines into the filly.
The 6th (Newmarket Handicap) race doesn’t have much to report about it even though it is a Group 1 race and one you won’t want to miss. BLACK CAVIAR just keeps on winning and it’s hard to see anything getting anywhere near her. Without doubt the best sprinter I have ever seen and even with the 58kgs it’s hard to see anything giving her a shake. STAR WITNESS is starting to return to the form that I think it can produce so it should be a good chance at filling one of the places. Word is during the week it had a super track work session which caught a few eyes.
The Group 1 Australian Cup is a much more even affair with a crack field to contest it this year. 2009 Melbourne Cup winner SHOCKING will be kept very tight this year throughout the Autumn after he shocked many by taking out a few early races en route to another cup assault. Is finishing off his races so strongly and just needs the speed to be on to be considered a genuine threat. Favourite HEART OF DREAMS was very solid last time round over the 1800m suggesting it may be ready to make the leap up to the 2000m where it has struggled in the past. I couldn’t take it as favourite in this field with that in mind though. Many of the horses in this field will be charging home late like GINGA DUDE, MOUDRE and PRECENDENCE just to name a few but they may be caught out by some nippy sprinters who get a soft ride. One of those to consider would have to be the West Australian PLAYING GOD who just got held up a vital time last start and given a better run could easily pinch this one before the others have time to react.
To the penultimate race of the day and I have to have a watch on topweight CULMINATE after it played up terribly last start and ran accordingly running out of puff in the straight. If the horse settles it should win against this field but how can you back a horse with confidence when it has manners like that. LADY LYNETTE always puts in a solid performance and is hitting some form but has a woeful record at this track (7 starts for only 2 placings). EXCEPTIONALLY is a Melbourne Cup contender in the coming years so will be keen to see how it finishes this race of to see if it’s worth getting on him early to win the big race at massive odds this year. GAIL just keeps on winning and in strong fashion so it has to be considered a strong chance in this field. STOLE could be a knock out and definitely one to consider for the quaddie punters wanting some value.
I really don’t like the last race at all. There has been some support for favourite UNDENIABLY but it has to have huge question marks in a field like this. There are chances everywhere and I could easily mention half a dozen horses and not hit a winner anywhere. You should go wide in the quaddie’s and Big 6’s but may be include DANZYLUM, OFFENDERS and NIBLICK in there somewhere.
To Warrick Farm and the feature is the Group 1 Turnpoint Guineas and favourite ILOVETHISCITY looks to have a strong hold the race even though it is a solid field. This horse was extremely impressive winning its last start at Rosehill and the step up to the mile will suit it to the ground. RETRIEVE has to be considered a danger after running a solid 2nd to it last start and was hitting the line well suggesting the step up in distance will also suit.
To the rest of Warrick and I have an interesting runner in the first at crazy odds. CONISTON BLUEBIRD was never going to be a superstar but did have some ability before a heart defect caused it to put in some less than impressive performances. Whilst a win would be a minor miracle it does race a lot better fresh and at $126 it could be worth a few bob each way in case everything falls into place for him. Ahead to the 4th race and we see KARUTA QUEEN take on PANE IN THE GLASS who undefeated and very well specked in betting for the Golden Slipper behind hot favourite Sepoy. I probably just give the nod to Karuta Queen because of the tight Warrick Farm track and the fact she will lead them along but it will be an interesting one to watch.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
11.30am – Flemington Race 1 – 3. METONYMY (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
1.15pm – Flemington Race 4 – 1. WHOBEGOTYOU (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win) **We’ll lock in the $1.80 available now as I think this will drop
2.25pm – Doomben Race 3 – 9. SEEK AND FIND (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.35pm – Doomben Race 6 – 11. TAFEER (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
6.40pm – Ascot Race 5 – 5. SMOKIN DRAGON (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
12.55pm – Warrick Farm Race 1 – 1. CONISTON BLUEBIRD (Currently $126)
3.07pm – Doomben Race 4 – 8. BAY CITY KITTY (Currently $17)
4.05pm – Flemington Race 8 – 10. STOLE (Currently $26)
5.07pm – Warrick Farm Race 7 – 4. VINTEDGE (Currently $17)
February 12th – Horse Racing
Caulfield is well and truly the feature meeting with a number of Group races along with the feature race, the Group 1 CF ORR Stakes which hosts a really strong field. If I had to pick a winner for the 1st race a week ago I would’ve pencilled in APENNINE as I was really keen on her prior to last Friday nights win at the Valley. Whilst she did go on and win I thought she looked a little weak and I question her ability when the going gets really tough and the competition is strong. GAIL is another who has progressed through the provincials and forced her way to a metro win last start. A big step up in distance is her next challenge to overcome but the signs appear to be in her favour. COMOCEAN looks to have plenty of staying ability, however, she has layed in her last 2 starts suggesting she is in need of a spell.
Race 2 is the Group 3 Carlyon Cup and a very wide open field. LARRYS NEVER LATE only had 1 start last prep for a win and has got a very impressive 4 wins and one place from 5 starts. MY BENTLEY is worth a look at double figure odds. I thought the run last start suggested he is ready to produce his best given the right conditions. ITS PRINCE will appreciate drawing a good barrier and should run a strong race as well. Hard to really get too confident about anything here though.
The racing continues to get stronger with the Group 2 D’Urban Stakes next on the card for the 3 yr olds. It’s hard to argue with the form of ÉCLAIR MYSTIC who has had 6 wins and 2 placings from its 8 career starts. Showed some real promise last year and will be interesting to see if it can keep up with that form this year. UNDER THE EIFFEL is an extremely impressive horse that will no doubt go a long way. He has shown a tremendous turn of foot in all of his 4 career starts even when racing greenly early on. Opened up a ridiculous price in early betting but is getting out to a backable price now.
The 4th and 5th races are part of the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude. The 4th race is for the boys and SEPOY goes out an extremely short favourite on the back of 2 very impressive wins in its 2 career starts but none more than its last start win at this track. Hard to see it getting beat but $1.60 about a 3 yr old with little race experience is too much for me. ONE LAST DANCE is the favourite for the girls after also securing 2 wins from as many starts but not quite in as dominate fashion as Sepoy. SPECTROLITE has shown a real turn of foot when given daylight but you’d have to think that this is too short for her especially at Caulfield with no straight to work with. GLISSADE is the big hope from NSW and there are a lot of question marks after going down as a $1.35 favourite last start. I questioned its ability to win last start and although it gets some weight relief here it didn’t really show much speed just fighting qualities (Maybe when it gets over further). HOLDONTOYAHORSES is another who has to be respected on early form with 2 solid wins. Times are good enough to go against this field, although it has had 2 easy runs and hasn’t struck any trouble so far. HELPING HAND seems way over the odds after racing greenly but in quick time last start for an all the way win. She will have to work hard to get across but that doesn’t seem to faze this horse and could be a real blow out result.
In the 6th a number of the good chances are drawn wide meaning this race will be more down to luck than good racing. Think we’ll leave that alone. To the Group 1 C.F. Orr Stakes and favourite TYPHOON TRACY will have as many backers as nay sayers here after a disappointing return to the track last start at Mooney Valley. This horse seems to have lost its turn of foot that made it one of the best 3 year olds in the country a few years ago. I thought its last campaign was average at best. The big test for many of these runners will be the weight they have to carry with the lightweight at 57kgs. MOUDRE is an interesting runner and could be an early season threat here. A great first up record and the 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance attracts the eye. This horse is my tip for the 2011 Melbourne Cup and this could be the start of a great year for the horse and its owners. HEART OF DREAMS gets its chance to grab some early season glory before the big boys all warm up and should be there abouts tomorrow.
CATAPULTED always gets ready early in its preparation and with the strong support in early betting you’d have to think it’s not going to be far off here. REWARD FOR EFFORT is another who comes together quickly and would have appreciated drawing a little closer to the rails and the tricky Caulfield track. If the rain keeps falling I’d have to consider WINTER KING as a really strong contender. This horse has a huge heart and loves getting in a battle down the line. FASTER SON is friendless in betting which is hard to see why with 6 wins from 7 starts. It hasn’t raced huge opposition but it has toyed with all of them making them look second rate. With a great barrier draw ACORNS should get a dream run and has some of the fastest sectionals of anyone so be prepared for a battle if he sees daylight in the straight.
In the last BEADED has been very strongly supported despite drawing the widest of all runners. As the rain falls the support gets stronger for this horse who will love a bit of mud around. Meanwhile early favourite VAREENA MISS is blowing in the betting but it’s hard to justify why. Although racing a little greenly last start this horse has still shown great ability and will win races greater than this in the future. SIMPLY PUT could be a contender for those who like sticking with a roughie in the last race. I’m a bit surprised to see the difference in price between Simply Put and MID SUMMER MUSIC who assumes 3rd favouritism. I think it has a strong chance but Simply Put beat her last start and therefore deserves to be a lot shorter.
At Randwick there are some strong Group races to contend with as well. PINWHEEL looks a strong chances in the Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes(4th Race). He’s heavily weighted which takes my percentage of confidence down just a smidgen but the form line reads really well. Maybe CARDINAL VIRTUE at decent odds. The Group 2 Breeders Classic is next in line and MORE JOYOUS is an easy selection as the favourite and the bookies are taking no chances with her price. It’s really hard to recommend anything else in that race.
To the 6th and we have another Group 2 race in the form of the Light fingers Stakes and MORE STRAWBERRIES has been heavily backed after 2 strong trial wins last month. I like the horse but it’s not known to get to its best this fast so I’d have to watch tomorrow. PARABLES looks a much better prospect at the price tomorrow but will be damaged slightly by the wide barrier draw. RED TRACER turned its unbeaten streak at Randwick to 2 last start with a dominate win against the fillies. I think this race is a much stronger field but I expect her to be right in the finish again.
The strong racing continues in the 7th race with the Group 2 Sovereign Stakes and I think with favourite PRESSDAY drawing wide this event is wide open. I had tagged Pressday as a possible bet for us till the wide draw but I just don’t have the confidence it will find a good spot in travelling. Those betting with Betfair should get on board if it finds cover without trouble. ILOVETHISCITY will appreciate being back on the NSW way of going and I’d expect a much improved performance.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.00pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 7. UNDER THE EIFFEL (Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.53pm – Randwick Race 4 – 1. PINWHEEL (Managed Fund 2% Win)
3.20pm – Morphettville Race 5 – 1. CANDLE (Managed Fund 5% Win)
3.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 5 – 4. CAVALIERED (Managed Fund 2% Win)
5.40pm – Eagle Farm Race 8 – 11. GO FOREST GO (Managed Fund 1%ew)
Our Best Roughies are:
3.10pm – Caulfield Race 5 – 7. HELPING HAND (Currently $31)
5.05pm – Ascot Race 3 – 8. MR NICOFFSKI (Currently $26)
5.45pm – Ascot Race 4 – 15. RANCHERS BOY (Currently $61)
January 25th – Australia Day Racing Preview
Always a good day for punting on Australia Day and if you’re not at the beach I recommend getting somewhere where you can place a few bets as we’ve started having a few weeks of nice tracks and the results are starting to become more consistent. There are a few showers around the country but I don’t think they will affect things too much.
Caulfield is our feature meeting and it begins with a tricky race for the 3yo Fillies. STORM BURST has a narrow edge for me but it’s a hard race to line up with some inconsistent runners in the field. MISS ELVIE has had some support in the early betting after a great run behind the impressive Warm Love, however, its performances before that weren’t overly impressive. MINNIE MAH has been very solid in its 4 race career against average opposition. Did run some solid time last start over the 1200m which caught my eye.
LORD PINDARI takes favouritism in the 2nd and I think it’s a good Lay option on Betfair as I think there are some stronger chances in the field. SPINNEY was tipped by us to run strong last start and I was disappointed with its 3rd place. Goes up a couple of kg’s here and will be finding it tough down the short straight. MY BENTLEY has a much better 2nd up record so you could forgive his first up ordinary run if you’re a fan of the horse. GOLDEN ARCHER looks the dominant force in the 3rd race on the back of 2 wins from 2 starts. Ran a swift 33.77 sec 600m last start easing up at the post which suggests it has some ability. Likes to be on the pace so the Caulfield track will suit as well.
The fillies are in action again in the 4th for the Blue Diamond preview and there is talent all over the field. SPECTROLITE is at huge odds considering its first up win betting the very talented Military Grace. It then followed that up with a 5th ,only beaten a length, when it found a lot of trouble the entire race. Favourite ONE LAST DANCE showed those who predicted her to be a superstar that they were on the right track with an impressive first start victory at Mooney Valley.
In the 5th the boys get a chance to strut their stuff in the Zeditave Stakes and ÉCLAIR MYSTIC assuming the favouritism. Whilst I think Éclair has ability it’s hard to ignore ANACHEEVA’s form coming into this race with a Group 1 win and 2 strong victories over the super talented Toorak Toff (Both at Caulfield). RUN FOR LEVI will no doubt give them something to chase at massive odds and will be suited by the tight Caulfield track. I would also have to include ROAD TRAIN in the chances with a strong run against Warm Love last start in fast time. The 6th race is a bit of a letdown with some ordinary form surrounding it. No selections here.
We put TopPunter followers onto VAREENA MISS as it made the grade from Provincials to Metropolitan races but I find it hard to back it at $2.00 tomorrow. It is obviously training the house down as it hasn’t had a start since winning for us back during the Spring Carnival in October last year. Makes it hard to go anything else though which such confidence and support surrounding the horse, maybe PERFECT HOSTESS represents better value though. In the last ACORNS takes favouritism on the back of its last start win a fortnight ago when it knocked off our selection HAPPY GLEN (Who also races here). It’s form prior to that wasn’t flash, however, it does race well fresh. Happy Glen does find it 2 kg’s better, however, it has to make up 3 lengths. QUICK PEEK I think represents a much better option and may be a tough one for them to run down in the straight as it is sure to take a forward position. KENNY KID is also drawn well and could surprise at odds.
We’ve found a couple of nice bets at Warrick Farm in BRING YOUR ALIBI in the 4th and OUR BOY LUKAS in the 5th, however, the main race of the day there is the Australia Day Cup (6th Race). AGENT BAUER rightly assumes favouritism on the back of some strong wins. Not rated by many tipsters but this horse just finds a way to win. Has a great temperament and settles well so is almost certain to be in the finish. TIDE could be a chance at double figure odds.
Unfortunately that’s the best I can offer up now as there are no odds around for the other venues around Australia making early bets difficult. I will try and find some time to put a Late Mail email together but I doubt it will come about as I will be enjoying the day. Still got 3 good bets for us so no real concern.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
2.12pm – Caulfield Race 3 – 2. GOLDEN ARCHER (5% Win)
2.30pm – Warrick Farm Race 4 – 4. BRING YOUR ALIBI (5% Win)
3.06pm – Warrick Farm Race 5 – 2. OUR BOY LUKAS (2% Win)
**For information on the % Betting System please email brad@toppunter.net
Our Best Roughies are:
3.42pm – Warrick Farm Race 6 – 10. TIDE (Currently $18)
5.22pm – Caulfield Race 8 – 11. KENNY KID (Currently $31)
December 26th – Boxing Day Racing
We start the days review at Randwick and get off to a cracking start with a former TopPunter winner SINCERO looking unbeatable in the 1st race of the day. I am normally not a fan of taking horse below the $1.70 mark but this just looks way too good for this field. We’ll lock the price in at $1.60 so at least it won’t go any lower. At first glance the 2nd race looks a similar story with FLYING SUCCESS a short priced favourite as well. However, on closer inspection you would have to be nervous. The horse just lost for us last start after working a little hard early and getting run over in the final 50m. This week it goes up 4.5kg’s (With the weight increase and jockey change) and it is up another 200m. I still think this horse has some talent but this looks to be a handy lay bet for me with some real talent in this field. The 3rd race is a total lottery with a number of first starters and horses with limited runs so we’ll stay away there.
The 4th race is very open as well and I’m finding it hard to really find anything that stands out for me. CARDINAL VIRTUE has been holding his own against some really strong opposition, whilst bottom weight MIGHTY OBVIOUS could spring a surprise at nice double figure odds if given a smooth run. The 5th race is another toughie with hardly any really good form to go through. The top 2 TORIO’S QUEST and HAVATRYST both represent reasonable claims but not enough for me to be overly confident on them. Best to stay away I think.
The top race of the day the Group 3 Summer Cup (6th) is next on the cards and has a solid field contesting over the 2400m. BEIJING BOY has been strongly supported on the back of its last 2 strong wins. It is jumping up in distance, however, it has won over the distance before and should do it again comfortably. If it can roll to the front and control the speed it will be right in this. ROCK KINGDOM is always running a strong race and would have to be considered in any multiples. Finally, BELLAGIO WYNN will be loving the dry weather they are having in Sydney firming up the track.
The 7th looms as another tough card and I’m starting to think I will only be betting at Randwick in the 1st race of the day. DANAGAZE looks well placed in this race but I thought we would get a much better price than this. It worked home very well in just its 2nd start in Sydney and looks to be well placed again here. FISCAL is very well placed in this race and has been right in the mix the last couple of starts. Glad to see it get over the line last start as I was worried this horse had no ticker. In the final race of the day I am very tempted to get on TRIPLE ELEGANCE but will decide later on for myself depending on any bias in the race. Will be on the pace and after a strong first up run it should be ready to hit its straps. GAZZA GURU looks to be a last race blow out chance on the back of a strong first up run at Rosehill. Drops 5kgs for this run and could be a real kick in the wallet for us. I will be interested to see the run of Torio’s Quest is in the 5th as the 2nd favourite here, in TOP DROP, got beaten a nose by it last start. If Torio wins then it will certainly look a lot more impressive. The odd runner here is THEROCK who has been very strongly supported so far even though it is first up for 2/3 of a year. The Gerald Ryan stable is very shrewd and should always be closely watched.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
1.20pm – Randwick Race 1 – 1. SINCERO (Managed Fund 5% Win)
1.30pm – Doomben Race 1 – 4. WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY (Managed Fund 3% Win)
2.55pm – Morphettville Race 3 – 3. CIRO PRINCE (Managed Fund 2% Win)
4.00pm – Caulfield Race 4 – 9. JEWEL THIEF (Managed Fund 2% Win)
5.10pm – Doomben Race 7 – 12. LOCHIEL (Managed Fund 3% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
3.50pm – Doomben Race 5 – 8. CHILLED (Currently $31)
5.40pm – Randwick Race 8 – 12. GAZZA GURU (Currently $51)
6.00pm – Caulfield Race 7 – 14. GOSSIP GIRL (Currently $26)
December 25th – TopPunter Update
Hi all,
I’ve hada few questions from people who regularly view the website wondering why there have been very limited updates in recent times. The reason is the overwhelming administration work that has been coming in with so many subscribers taking advantage of the free offer. Unfrotauntely this does take a lot of time and i am looking at reviewing the process slightly in 2011 as my priorities as always have been my subscribers. My subscribers have continued to receive regular emails with all our bets which have seen strong profits in recent months and that will continue for the rest of the year and on through 2011. I will post our racing review for Boxing Day above and hope to include some of our Sports Bets over the Christmas period for those surfing the web but as always if you would like all the information you do need to sign up.
Cheers
Brad
November 20th – Railway Stakes Preview (Ascot)
We’ll start with Ascot who clearly has the better racing for the day and it begins straight up with Race 1 and hot favourite RANGER looks the one to beat. In my early form analysis I had Ranger down as a potential 5% Bet, however, as most of you know I have a limit of $1.70 for bets as once you start going below that your strike rate has to be ridiculous to stay in front. This horse only just falls below but the $1.65 on offer seems way too short for a horse that has only had 1 win from its 8 starts even though it has been against better opposition and often it has been very close to winning.
In the 2nd race I think betting looks pretty tough as there isn’t a lot of good form to go through. Favourite PIN ROUGE looks the better of them with bottom weight VILLAGIO a close 2nd and probably much better as an each way selection at the odds.
The 3rd brings around the first of our bets with BROOKESMEBABY looking a good thing and at nice odds. This horse has been in great form recently and even though her last start 7th doesn’t look very impressive she struck a ton of trouble and never really got clear in the straight.
The 3 Year olds contest the 4th race of the day and my first thoughts lean towards CHARMOSS who had a solid first up win and looks well suited again here with a quality jockey on board. MISS TIPSY TOPSY has blown in betting which worries me as I thought this horse looked a really strong chance in this race. VERACIOUS rarely puts together a bad race and would have to be considered in any multiple betting you undertake. A tough race to find a standout winner and I could’ve easily mentioned a few others here.
The first Listed Race of the day is the Carbine Club of WA Stakes and we really start to hit the quality fields. I have always been a fan of ELLIOTTO but I just can’t back him this prep as she just hasn’t found her old zip. However, you have to be confident of the chances of favourite MABEL GRACE who was snookered last start and got trampled by a tiring runner last start. Before that she was a very strong competitor and definitely looks the one to beat.
Race 6 is the Tattersall’s Cup and favourite STREET VALUE has been strongly supported after back to back wins in its past 2 starts. The most impressive of which was the last start where it won even after being kicked mid race. MASTER SIN looks as though it could be a real blow out result for punters with the 2100m right down its alley after some strong finishes in recent starts.
We come to the feature event of the day with the Group 1 Railway Stakes and once again it is a cracking field to take part. A lot of the talk has surrounded the form of last year’s winner SNIPERS BULLET who ran a disappointing 8th in the Emirates Stakes at Flemington last start. However, I felt that race was run strangely and I wouldn’t take too much from that race. TRUSTING is a lot shorter than I was hoping as I thought it was a contender here but since its having its first look at the track. I can’t officially back it at $6.00 but I do think the long straight will suit it. FAMOUS ROMAN had almost a year off after running average in the Railway Stakes and Kings Town last year but has returned with 2 wins and a 2nd in his 3 starts which is hard to ignore. Having said that the bookies have left him on the outside in this strong field at $21. Favourite COLOUR CORRECT has won 2 on the trot and gives the impression that the extra 200m will be perfect for this horse who has been finishing strongly. The price is a little skinny in such a big and strong field but given an even chance it will be hard to beat. GATHERING could also be considered a chance at odds after a solid Melbourne campaign this year.
The 3 year olds get another race to themselves in the Placid Ark Stakes and I’m finding it hard to go past top weight BLACK FELIX. There is some good form around the Belmont track and a bit at Ascot but this horse has been running some great times in winning and should be in this up to its ears.
The last race of the day is tough and the only positive to take out of it is if you find the winner you should end the day in front as everything will be nicely priced. I find it hard to really nail a standout but will probably lean towards LEAD ROPE, SCHOOL RUMBLE and TRUSTEE BROWN.
A quality day of racing a surprisingly we found 3 bets at Ascot as well. That is often not the case on the big days but I feel confident about our chances there.
A number of bets out there today but I really couldn’t narrow it down anymore. I could easily have added some more but I don’t like to over expose us on any single day. A good day to be a punter though and think many of you will come out with some money today.
Our Early Mail Selections are:
3.00pm – Rosehill Race 4 – 4. TITLE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
3.10pm – Doomben Race 4 – 4. IMAGERY (Horse Managed Fund 3% Win)
4.05pm – Ascot Race 3 – 4. BROOKESMEBABY (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
5.25pm – Ascot Race 5 – 5. MABEL GRACE (Horse Managed Fund 5% Win)
5.40pm – Rosehill Race 8 – 11. GRIFFON (Horse Managed Fund 1% Each Way)
7.25pm – Ascot Race 8 – 1. BLACK FELIX (Horse Managed Fund 2% Win)
Our Best Roughies are:
3.50pm – Doomben Race 5 – 16. FELINE IRISH (Currently $61)
4.00pm – Mooney Valley Race 6 – 8. JETEVEN (Currently $12)
6.05pm – Ascot Race 6 – 9. MASTER SIN (Currently $61)
6.45pm – Ascot Race 7 – 6. FAMOUR ROMAN (Currently $21)
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