Moto GP – Sachsenring GP Running Total (-$170)
A thrilling race where the big 4 riders Rossi, Lorenzo, Stoner and Pedorosa all had their chances and really fought each at breakneck speeds throughout the race. Rossi pulled off another sensational move to hold out Lorenzo and win the Sachsenring GP. Stoner finished in 4th after leading the race for a few laps and physically looked a lot better than previous weeks – he suffered grip problems rather than illness. He’ll be one to watch at the Donington race in a week or two.
Unfortunately for us, our bet on Nicky Hayden came to nothing after he crashed out in the warm-up and lost confidence for the race, finishing 8th. We missed out on our potential profit but it doesn’t cost us anything due to us being able to lay off our bet. All in all, we finish down -$10 after our side bet on Vermeulen (at $90!) who had no chance in a dry race – we needed rain for that one to have a hope and despite the weather being wet all weekend, the rain stayed away for the race.
Moto GP – Sachsenring GP – Time to lay off your bet
With the race on tonight and Nicky Hayden showing plenty of speed in qualifying ending up 4th. This is great news for us with our $100 bet on Hayden to basically come 5th at $8 looking handy! Even Pedorosa is sitting well back in 8th.
In terms of the betting situation, as always thanks to Betfair we can consider laying him. Hayden has come in to around $4 to back/lay for the win without the Big 4. Therefore, with our potential winnings of $700 from our bet of $100, you can lay him off for a cost of around $400 and still make $300. In other words, you reduce your odds from $8 to $4 but now without risking a cent! I really recommend this because it’s pouring at the moment and the 250CC’s were red-flagged – anyone could come off! We’ll do this – potential profit is now $300.
As for the race winner itself, Rossi is looking strong but in the wet Vermeulen and Melandri are always with a chance – especially Vermeulen! We’ll throw a sneaky $10 on Vermeulen at $90 – we might lay that off during the race to lock in a profit. I’d recommend it if he goes anywhere near half the original odds you get as the potential profit of $890 give a lot to play with. Good luck! Check out the widget below that shows the odds (sorry about the pounds currency but Betfair is a Motherland country!)
Moto GP – Sachsenring GP
Round 9 of the 2009 MotoGP World Championship takes the riders to the Sachsenring in eastern Germany. After finishing 2nd at Laguna Seca last round Rossi will look to use this weekend to set the record for most MotoGP podiums. He has four wins to his name at this circuit however it definitely isn’t one of his favourites. He does have the advantage of being fully fit for this race which is more than can be said about Lorenzo and Stoner.
Dani Pedrosa’s confidence will be buoyed after taking Honda’s first victory for the 2009 MotoGP season at Laguna Seca. In a wet race at this circuit last year Pedrosa took the lead early with his typical good start (due to his tiny 56kg), however he pushed too hard too early and ended up in the dirt, which effectively ended his 2008 championship hopes.
In 2008, Stoner was the eventual winner here last year with a comfortable victory over Rossi. Lorenzo suffered the same fate as Pedrosa when he slid out of contention early on.
Stoner has all but accepted defeat here by saying that it will once again be a difficult weekend. Stoner is not only suffering from mild anemia and gastritis, his ribs are still sore from his high-side two weeks ago. The Sachsenring will not prove too forgiving on these ailments, but he’s a tough cookie.
The weather shouldn’t play a part here as it is expected to be 23 degrees and cloudy/sunny all weekend, with some showers in early practice
The value bet of the weekend could be Nicky Hayden. He showed at Laguna Seca that he now has the measure of his Ducati and heading to another of his favourite tracks he is well placed to capitalise. We can use the alternative markets available on Betfair here to look at Winner without Big 4. The anti-clockwise Sachsenring suits Hayden due his to speedway days and the $8 on betfair for Hayden without the big 4 is a steal.
This circuit has never been one of Lorenzo’s favourites and when not 100% fit he isn’t value at $4.60. Consider laying.
Our bet: $100 on Nicky Hayden Winner Without Big 4 on Betfair @ $8.
July 6th – Moto GP (Running Total -$160)
Stunning performance from Dani Pedrosa put paid to Rossi, Lorenzo (who was unlucky not to beat Rossi with an inspired drive with a sore collarbone and foot) and Stoner (who matched the pace but tired in the final laps due to his illness), and ends the drought for Repsol Honda.
We end up with a small +$40 from the trade betting we managed, and happy to have our original stake back in the bank with a bit more to play with next round.
July 5th – Moto GP Update
Qualifying At Laguna Seca saw Jorge Lorenzo take out pole – but both the Spaniard and Casey Stoner crashed heavily. Lorenzo was taken to the medical centre with some fairly serious problems said to be a dislocated right shoulder and bruised foot after his with a second and massive highside crash causing him to be sent straight to the medical centre. Stoner walked away albeit unsteady from his crash.
Our bet on Rossi looks like it was a good one, and he has come right in to $1.50. Rossi never really hooked it up in qualifying, complaining of a few problems, and so without him looking the goods and with so many unknowns with Stoner, Lorenzo and the Honda looking good we can lay our bet off thanks to the odds now being well in our favour. We’ll lay Rossi off at $1.50 so that we can claim our money back.
+$60 if Rossi wins, +$40 even if he doesn’t.
July 3rd (Moto GP Selections)
The Moto GP moves to the USA this week to the great circuit Laguna Seca. Last year Valentino Rossi managed a fine win over Casey Stoner but was pushed all the way by the young champion.
This week Stoner remains under an illness cloud. His last two races have ended up with him unable to push on to challenge the Fiat Yamaha of Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo. Stoner says he is feeling better and knows what symptoms to watch out for – but will he be able to really give it his all?
That said, the betting isn’t easy. We don’t like anything but Rossi if Stoner isn’t 100%. A clear indication is practice and qualifying. Rossi is able to coast through practice and qualifying and rely on his natural/freakish skills to be able to put in massive performances in the race. With Free Practice 1 (FP1) over, Rossi is on top and dominating which looks very ominous.
Our predictions:
Winner:
Rossi – 1.92 (Odds for the others: Lorenzo 4.4, Stoner 3.8)
Top 3 Rossi – 1.12, Lorenzo – 1.25, Stoner – 1.25.
Our bets:
We’ll have $100 on Rossi to win at 1.92. This isn’t a normal bet, usually we like to use some inside knowledge to get ahead and also try to trade to bet off when it comes in to really have a strong position either way – but it seems pretty clear at the moment that The Doctor is looking unstoppable, and getting odds up to $2 is generous. That said, the variables in play this weekend in terms of the uncertainty over Stoner makes it a very difficult punting weekend.
Stay tuned for further practice and qualifying updates.
June 28th – Moto GP (Running Total -$200)
After hitting the lead in the early laps Stoner was soon passed by Rossi and never saw sight of him again running third for the rset of the race. Loss-$200
June 26th (Moto GP Update)
Casey Stoner qualified fourth after being held up in traffic during qualifying. That said, Stoner is pleased enough to be 4th and able to push in the race at the front runners, but was visibly angry Stoner towards several riders who dangerously held up him during the fastest parts of the race and cost him a final hot lap.
It will be a tight and exhilarating race. Stoner was as short as $3.2-$3.3 if you wanted to lay your bet off during qualifying and make a small margin, however he still represents value at the current odds of 4.3 available.
No changes to our betting, but if it starts showering as predicted, an in play go at Vermulen or Melandri as you choose will be a handy bet.
June 25th (Moto GP)
With all the top 3 riders on equal points after the last round in Barcelona, Valentino Rossi, Casey Stoner and Jorge Lorenzo all stand a fair chance for the championship. With Stoner and Rossi already proven they have the consistency it takes to win the championship, I would give the edge to these two. Lorenzo is a real rising star and can’t be discounted, but looking at the odds Stoner at 4.60 to win the championship looks very attractive.
Casey Stoner rolled up at Assen in 2008 and utterly dominated, from the moment the bikes hit the track to the point at which they waved the chequered flag. The Australian suffered a setback last time out at Catalunya, felled by a stomach flu which robbed him of his strength in the Spanish heat and humidity, only just managing to hold onto 3rd there. He noted in his post race press conference that if he had not been sick he would most likely have had the pace to challenge the Fiat Yamaha boys Rossi and Lorenzo who finished 1 st and 2nd respectively. Given that he was all over the back of Rossi in the first part of the race this seems legitimate. The only question is, will the setup of the Ducati cause too much degradation of the tyres?
With this said, Stoner has acknowledged that he will spend the opening practice sessions at Assen looking for some more rear grip from his bike ahead of the MotoGP race on Saturday. He said the lack of traction is the only real problem he has with the bike. Given Stoner’s uncanny ability to set up a bike I don’t think he will have any trouble. Look for his results in practice and his comments afterwards to adjust any betting.
Stoner has picked up points at his least favoured tracks this season including Jerez, Le Mans and Mugello, now we are entering a string of tracks which are more suited to the Aussie, beginning with Assen. With that said Assen is a favourite among many riders including Yamaha’s Lorenzo and Rossi as well, with both having impressive results here over the years.
The forecast is for showers on Saturday which may throw a spanner into the works. Stoner is still very good in the wet however if it does rain a value bet on Marco Melandri will be on the cards. Marco stands absolutely no chance in the dry but he is a demon in the wet, especially the intermediate stage between dry and full wets, and he will out perform his largely disappointing Kawasaki should the heavens open. A top 3 or top 6 bet early while hoping for rain may be on.
With all that I give the edge to Stoner in this race and early odds of 4.90 make him a good value bet. With a good early practice and expected strong qualifying performance I would think these odds will drop, so there may well be an opportunity to lay him before the race starts, cover our bets, and still make a good margin.
So the bet is $200 on Stoner at $4.90 to win and we may lay the bet off before the start of the race if he is flying in qualifying or rain is expected. Stay Tuned!
The TopPunter
TopPunter’s best tips to you. Free for the month of July. Check current tipping progress at @TopPunter on Twitter.