June 18th – NRL Round 15 Preview
At just past the half way mark of the year I’d have to put the BRISBANE BRONCOS ($12.00 on SportsBet, $16.00 on Betfair) on top as my favourites for the title at the current odds. They have begun a really strong surge up the ladder after an indifferent start and now the young players they brought on board have gained confidence and the ability to win games. Guided round the park by some of the best leaders in the game they are tremendous value and I have had one of my biggest ever bets on a premiership winner this far out from the end. Obviously ST GEORGE DRAGONS ($3.40 on SportsBet, $3.70 on Betfair) have to be considered cue to their consistency over the past couple of seasons but I still worry about their ability to bring the title home after they have shown signs of wilting under the pressure before. MANLY SEA EAGLES ($7.00 on SportsBet, $8.00 on Betfair) are 2nd favourites for the crown even though they have been erratic at times this year. They have a superb forward pack that can match it with any team and that helps there very young and inexperienced halves. Those halves are the only real doubt for me as when it gets to the business end of the season you can’t hesitate there. The advantage Manly has is Jamie Lyon in the centers who can move inside and take control if one of the boys starts to panic. Actually SportsBet is offering $33.00 for the Brisbane / Manly quinella for the Grand Final which I think is well worth a couple of dollars!
To the round 15 games and we kick off with the BRISBANE BRONCOS ($1.50) backing up against the youthful PENRITH PANTHERS ($2.65). There are many who say never back a team backing up from a State of Origin game but I am certainly not one of them. In fact if you listen to the players many of them say if they have a quick back up they are less likely to suffer the muscle fatigue they would have if they had to play a Monday night game. Add to that the fact the Panthers are without there real go forward man and inspirational leader in Petero Cinoviceva and I think the Broncos look good things here. The 2nd game tonight sees the CANTERBURY BULLDOGS ($2.10) take on the GOLD COAST TITANS ($1.75) and good luck picking this one. Trying to work out when the Bulldogs are going to fire is like trying to watch paint dry. They clearly have potential and seem to put together 1 good half of football but thats not enough in the NRL. The fact they have transferred the game to Brisbane’s Suncorp stadium may be a mistake when they could’ve used some home town support to get their season moving.
Saturday night has 2 games this week. The MELBOURNE STORM ($1.57) takes on NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS ($2.45) at home in what could be an entertaining match. You never seem to know what this storm side will produce this year with no points on offer. Tipping them is a nightmare but you can be sure they do like to entertain one way or another. The Cowboys will welcome back their leader and could really do with a win here to get them a chance for some Semi Final football later in the year. MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.60) vs the erratic SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS ($2.38) is game 2 and I couldn’t go near this game either. While I think Manly should win as they are the better side and have a good record against the bunnies, who knows what Souths team will show up. Without doubt Souths can beat anyone in the comp when they are on. They have a massive forward pack, electric halves and a young and talented back line.
Sunday puts together 2 games that could be really entertaining. The CRONULLA SHARKS ($2.80) have found some real momentum since their wet and ugly win over the Knights over a month ago and could provide a real stumbling block for the ST GEORGE DRAGONS ($1.45). The Sharks will be very happy to hear that Paul Gallen escaped suspension for his high tackle on Wednesday night as he is a critical part of the team. Although the Dragons won 38-0 in Round 8 earlier in the year I think this will be much closer. For the 2nd game the up and down WESTS TIGERS ($1.40) vs the CANBERRA RAIDERS ($3.05). I’d like to say the Raiders are good value but every stat I turn over suggests that the Tigers should win this and win it well. They did what they had to in the wet against the Bulldogs 2 weeks ago and are fully rested from the bye. They have also secured the services of talented fullback Wade Mackinnon for the first time this year. The game is being played at Leichardt Oval which always brings a very parochial crowd that will be full of supporters hoping for blood. Canberra’s hopes rest on their origin stars being fit as they really need to be able to match the Tigers in the forwards to be a show. Without a tight ruck the speedy Tigers will run riot.
Monday this week is in Newcastle for the NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.40) against the PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.60). Kurt Gidley will be praying he has a pleseant night after an average one on Wednesday. Not only the losing captain (again) but playing out of position he made some basic errors that lead to tries and was very disapoitning. He is a class player and playing in his preferred position he should be much stronger. To be honest though I can’t see it with the team in turmoil and seemingly changing their line-up from week to week, especially in the halves. Whilst I didn’t mention the Eels as Grand Final contenders earlier they have got class all over the park and I expect them to take the 2 point here.
Our bets are:
BRISBANE BRONCOS to beat the Penrith Panthers by more than 5.5 points at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
CRONULLA SHARKS with 7.5 points start against the St George Dragons at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
WESTS TIGERS to beat Canberra Raiders by 13+ at $2.40 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
PARRAMATTA EELS to beat the Newcastle Knights by more than 6 points at $2.10 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
May 14th – NRL Round 10 Preview
Who’s want to be a NRL tipster this year. Every week there are a number of games when you might as well toss a coin up in the air and see how it falls. Luckily we aren’t getting dragged into betting for the sake of betting and it has proven successful with 4 wins from 7 bets and a 15% profit on investment so far. Again this weekend looks tough but
Before last weekend The Brisbane Broncos ($1.87) would have been $4.00 against the Gold Coast Titans ($1.97) tonight but after dismantling an ordinary Melbourne Storm they are suddenly favourites in the QLD derby. I am very tempted to back the Titans but the truth of the matter is the Bronco’s have a lot going for them. Quality forwards guided round by Quality halves with a young fast backline that most clubs would kill for and if last week was there turning point then this is the key to getting on a roll. If the Broncos win and win well tonight then expect them to make a real charge back to the top of the table and a real force for the rest of the year.
In the other Friday night game there is a lot of feeling between St George Dragons ($1.50) and Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.65). This has the potential to be a cracking match that will start with some fireworks up the centre as both sides pride themselves on laying a solid platform. Whichever team gets on top I would expect to let the ball sing in the second half and unleash the speed they both have. I am very interested to see how Matt Prior (A front rower) is going to go marking up on Josh Morris (A centre).
I was going jump on the NZ Warriors ($1.43) giving away whatever start the could against the NQLD Cowboys ($2.90) until the whisper went round that Jonathon Thurston is potentially playing. I still think the Warriors are going to be too good here and for a team the rides on emotion they will be pumped up after some big signings for the 2011 season that were announced during the week.
What a test for the Melbourne Storm ($1.68) heading down to what will be a freezing conditions in the nation’s capitol to take on the Canberra Raiders ($2.20). The Storms bubble may have been burst last week and players will start to question why they are bashing themselves around each week for no points. Some may have Origin spots to play for but the loss of Cameron Smith as well has got to put a huge question mark over their chances of winning this game.
The Sydney Roosters ($1.91) take on the Newcastle Knights ($1.93) in what will be a try fest. Both sides seem to show glimpses of what it is like to be a contender in the NRL before turning into park footballers and conceding piles of points in a short period. Both teams have a horrendous record at Blue Tongue Stadium as well so who on earth would you back?? Maybe a 32 all draw?
The West Tigers ($1.75) need to make a move against the South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.10) if they are to be serious contenders this year. They are packed with talent from one side to the other and have a strong forward pack that can match the biggest of packs. Having said that they will need all of them this weekend against the biggest pack in the NRL. I think this will be won by the little men in the tigers outfit like Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall who can get the South’s boys on the back foot before unleashing the likes of Lote Tuqiri and Chris Lawrence who are both in fantastic form this year.
Many will try and convince me that the Cronulla Sharks ($2.75) will aim up and make a games of it against the Penrith Panthers ($1.46) but you can’t fool me. Once every 5 weeks the Sharks decide they have something to play for but if your backed against them every week you’d suffer the odd upset but you’d be rolling in cash. I feel for them in games and cheer them on because they do play with spirit but the truth of the matter is they are poorly coached and play with no direction. The Panthers will be lead by inspirational captain Petero Civoniceva who resigned with the club earlier In the week. Panthers by plenty for me.
The Parramatta Eels ($2.45) may have fooled a few experts this year with a few wins on the trot but they are in no way shape or form the same team as the one that charged through all teams on their way to the Grand Final last season. Jarrod Hayne has shown glimpses but I think is getting too involved in the general play rather than the rare brilliant touches that put him on the map in 2009. This week is a true test taking on a white hot Manly Sea Eagles ($1.57) side that has put away all comers in recent weeks including the previously dominant Dragons last weekend. To sway this match more in favour of the Eagles is the fact they are the Fortress Brookvale Oval which is not a nice place for opposition teams to visit which is aided by the fact they seem to win every single penalty count there by a long margin.
Our Bets this weekend are:
NZ WARRIORS minus 6.5 points to beat NQLD Cowboys at $1.90 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
WESTS TIGERS minus 2 points to beat South Sydney Rabbitohs at $1.92 (Sports Managed Fund 5% Win)
MANLY SEA EAGLES minus 6.5 points to beat Parramatta Eels at $2.10 (Sports Managed Fund 10% Win)
April 29th – NRL Round 7 Preview
First of 2 matches on Friday night see the BRISBANE BRONCO’S ($1.50) vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.50) and many tipsters are tipping this to be a Brisbane whitewash but I’m not convinced. The Bronco’s have been less than impressive this season and some key injuries in their forward pack means many of the pack are playing out of position. The Knights in the meantime were terrible against the Sharks last weekend and have lost the spirit that they showed earlier in the season. I would expect an improved performance from both sides but you are playing lottery as to which team will turn up defensively. Add to that the distraction of Israel Falau in the papers this week and I am reminded of the thrashing the Bronco’s received at the hand of the Raiders last season when Karmichel Hunt announced his defection to the AFL. I’m probably just leaning towards Newcastle for the upset because of the odds.
The 2nd Friday night clash is a bottler with PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.46) vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS ($2.75) and I am a little amazed at the price difference here. I have Parramatta a slight favourite since they are playing at home and the fact that 2 of the Bulldogs point scoring threats look dampened this weekend with an injury to Josh Morris and in form centre Jamal Idris being marked by the very strong and equal in form Timana Tahu. The forwards will get involved in a big bashing match as well with a lot of history and feeling between the 2 sides so the loss of Ben Hannant will also hurt the dogs but think this one is much closer than the betting suggests.
Betting has been suspended on most betting agencies on the NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS due to the fact that the Raiders have been crippled by late injuries to key players (Most notably Alan Tongue and Shaun Fensom). This will be devastating to a side that fell in a hole against South’s last week and I had already ear marked them as copping a real hiding. Betfair still has the market open and you can get $1.54 about the Warriors which is a real steal.
The GOLD COAST TITANS ($1.75) vs PENRITH PANTHERS ($2.10) is a very interesting encounter. Against I am leaning towards the outsiders here with the Panthers in great form recently while the Titans required a massive comeback to get over the line last weekend. I wonder how much the leak to the press, that the journalist who broke the Matt Johns saga last year is about to release her latest piece which has been based on the Scott Prince salary cap drama, is going to affect the Titans. Either way I like the look of a Panthers side that is brimming with local talent and it’s a shame they are almost certain to be decimated with a weak side during the representative rounds with up to 7 players considered strong chances of playing this year.
Is no surprise to see the market for the 3rd match on Super Saturday with the ST GEORGE / ILLAWARRA DRAGONS ($1.17) vs CRONULLA SHARKS ($5.25) as this looks to be a one sided affair. The Dragons have been the only consistent side in the competition this year while the Sharks have been dreadful for the most but managed to grind out an uninspiring win over a terrible Knights outfit last weekend. The only positive for the Sharks is going on recent matches between these 2 teams with the Sharks winning 3 of the last 4. In 2009 the Dragons won 10-6, 2008 The Sharks won both 13-12 and 18-16. While in 2007 the Sharks also won this time 20-16. As you can see every match has been hard fought and very tight so it’s hard to stick your neck out on the Dragons even though this has slaughter written all over it.
The final game for Saturday see the NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS ($2.25) vs MELBOURNE STORM ($1.67) and that price is almost enough for me to jump onto the Storm bandwagon. Obviously last weekend the players had something to prove to everyone that they were angry with what had happened and the Warriors were the hapless souls sent to the slaughter house but you’d have to say this week will be a lot tougher to keep the focus. Having said that I am amazed at some of the changes to the Cowboys line-up like dropping young gun Ray Thompson for Grant Rovelli even though he shows real promise. The injury to Carl Webb will also hurt the Cowboys side. I think the Storm will win this match in a high scoring affair.
Nobody would be game enough to pick the winner of the WEST TIGERS ($1.52) vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS ($2.60) since neither team seems to have a clue about how to defend. The Roosters have been damaged by the loss of halfback Mitchell Pearce and it has showed in their recent performances. Having said that they still have plenty of fire power to score tries for almost any situation. Having said that the tigers on paper should win most weekends with the only worry for me being Robbie Farah’s move into the halfback spot in a bold move by coach Tim Sheens. The big problem here is I think the Tigers will miss Farah’s input from the dummy half area and wonder how much running he will do from halfback. Liam Fulton has replaced Farah at hooker and while defensively he will be strong I wonder how he will go at directing the round the park. Still keen on the Tigers especially at Campbelltown where they’re always strong.
The final match of the round will be between the SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS ($2.24) vs MANLY SEA EAGLES ($1.66) and this time I really like the price of the favourites. South’s were nonexistent in the first half last weekend while Manly failed to finish off their game against the Titans suggesting this could be a game of 2 halves. However, one thing is for certain Des Hasler will have got stuck into his team about switching off early last weekend and I can’t see a repeat performance here. South’s have really only impressed me in 1 game this year when they were devastating against the Bulldogs but outside that they haven’t show me a side that can compete with the big sides for 80 mins. Manly to win by 12-16 points.
Our Bets are:
PENRITH PANTHERS to beat Gold Coast Titans (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
MELBOURNE STORM to beat North QLD Cowboys (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MANLY SEA EAGLES to beat the South Sydney Rabbitohs (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
April 9th – NRL Round 5 Preview and Bets
Week 5 in the NRL and there are some interesting prices on offer for us this weekend.
Friday night sees ST GEORGE ($1.12) take on the wounded BRISBANE BRONCO’S ($6.75) and all signs point to a Dragons victory. The only thing stopping jumping on the Dragons 13+ again is price ($1.48) and the record that teams have after playing Melbourne the week before.
The 2nd match of the night is much more appealing with the GOLD COAST TITANS ($2.60) taking on the MELBOURNE STORM ($1.52). It’s hard to see why The Storm are such generous odds after dismantling the 2nd favourites for the premiership in the Dragons last weekend. Meanwhile the Titans looked like a lost ship without Scott Prince at the helm. Prince is out again this weekend and I can see the same thing happening again.
Saturday night starts with SOUTH SYDNEY ($1.47) taking on the NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.75) and first signs point to a score fest with defence not a huge concern for either team. South’s were devastating against the Bulldogs last weekend and if there forward pack gets rolling this could get ugly. The knights meanwhile had a Jekyll and Hyde performance allowing the Panthers to storm home over the top for a big win after the Knights looked home and hosed at half-time. I’m going to leave betting on this match but I am tempted by the South 1-12 point win ($2.90) and assuming the weather holds getting on overs for total points.
I cannot believe the price of the BULLDOGS ($1.38) taking on the WARRIORS ($3.15) as I feel this match is a lot closer than that. The key indicator is what teams turn up to play. The Dogs admittedly just walked into a white hot South’s side last weekend while the Warriors were average at best against the Sea Eagles. No interest in betting here for me.
The final match of Saturday night is the COWBOYS ($1.77) taking on the WESTS TIGERS ($2.08) and although you never know which Tigers team will show up I was very impressed with the Cowboys last weekend when they finally gelled against the Titans. Jonathon Thurston found a great supporter in young gun Robert Thompson and I think with their massive forward pack they are going to make a real run at the premiership this year and could be a real bolter (Currently $27).
The remaining 3 games on Sunday and Monday have no interest for me at all in MANLY ($1.29) vs the SHARKS ($3.70), PENRITH PANTHERS ($1.80) taking on the ROOSTERS ($2.05) and finally PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.35) vs the CANBERRA RAIDERS ($3.30)
Our bets are:
MELBOURNE STORM to beat the Gold Coast Titans by 13+ at $2.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Nth QLD COWBOYS to beat the Wests Tigers at $1.77 (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
March 25th – NRL Round 3 Preview and Bets
I will post the occasional NRL Round preview on the website but the majority will be saved purely for the TopPunter subscribers. Remeber at all times you can sign up for the the FREE month and get your hands on all the Sports and Horse racing tips for FREE!
Round 3 gets under way with the Wests Tigers ($2.35) taking on the Parramatta Eels ($1.60) and I think they have got the market about right. I liked the look of the Tigers after round one but got up to their old tricks in round 2 letting in 44 points against a resurgent Sydney Roosters side. With attacking power all over the field for the Eels and Tigers this is likely to be a similar score line and I would be backing overs for Total Points If the bar is set at 45 points or less. I would’ve been tempted to take the $2.35 about the Tigers had they played their home game at Leichardt or Campbelltown where there record is much stronger. The Sydney Football Stadium will not intimidate the Eels and in fact they may end up out supported.
It’s very hard to back against the St George / Illawarra Dragons ($1.33) to beat the North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30) but I really don’t like taking skinny odds so early in the season. However, the fact the Cowboys are away from home and the Dragons have been very clinical again this year it’s hard to see any other result. In fact giving the 9.5 points start away for a $1.91 payout looks like a very strong option especially when you consider that the strong defensive centre in Matt Cooper returns this week to shore up their back line.
Penrith Panthers ($2.05) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.78), Manly Sea Eagles ($1.62) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.30) and Gold Coast Titans ($1.28) vs Canberra Raiders ($3.65) are big passes with no value in odds.
I was really shocked to see the difference in odds between the Brisbane Broncos ($1.52) vs the New Zealand Warriors ($2.55) as I think the Warriors are much better than that. Although only playing the weak Cronulla Sharks team at home last weekend they were fairly clinical in putting their opponent away when many teams have struggled to do so against the Sharks in recent times. The Bronco’s meanwhile have been ordinary in their first 2 encounters with a come from behind win against the lowly Cowboys before struggling big time in losing to the Raiders last weekend. Warriors the best value bet for the weekend.
I find the next match intriguing between the Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.91) against the Sydney Roosters ($1.91). Betting says that these 2 are evenly matched but the Roosters are undefeated and gelling like a good team should whilst the Dogs are struggling with combinations and are starting worse than Belle du Jour in the 2000 Golden Slipper. However, the dogs have shown glimpses of what they can offer and would be very happy to be back at home where they had a formidable record last season. Tempting to jump on the Dogs but we’ll leave it for now.
Not interested in the battle of the cellar dwellers in Cronulla Sharks ($2.08) against the South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.75) although it is worth mentioning that the Sharks record at home on a Monday night is alot better than any other location or time of day.
Bets for the Weekend are:
ST GEORGE / ILLAWARA DRAGONS to beat the North QLD Cowboys by more than 10 points at $1.91 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% win)
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS to beat the Brisbane Broncos head to head at $2.55 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
September 22nd – Rugby League (Running Total +$1165)
I did get a few emails asking my opinion on last weekend’s games and I gladly gave them out. I didn’t post anything as I felt the Parramatta game was almost a foregone conclusion but the price wasn’t there to bet and I felt the Dragons and Broncos was a lottery and I wouldn’t want to have swayed anyone in either way.
To be honest a week has gone by and not much has changed. However, I have some interesting thoughts on the Parramatta vs Bulldogs game. As always I welcome return emails giving you me your opinion. I am always interested to hear other people’s opinions any why. With knowledge comes fortune!
Firstly we’ll look at the Melbourne Storm ($1.43) vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.30) game to be held on Saturday Night in Melbourne.
The odds tell you that this is all but a foregone conclusion and I’m sorry to say that I can’t really sway you against that. Melbourne have a formidable record at Etihad Stadium lead by Billy Slater who has 3 hatricks (Including 1 four try haul) at the ground and the team always seems to play well when he is on fire. Greg Inglis also showed us why he is so important a fortnight ago when dominating the Sea Eagles out wide.
The price is again a little skinny for me to be jumping on board but when you consider that Brisbane, who would have been doing it tough anyway, are now without their halfback it is all but impossible to see them getting home. I’d expect Tonie Carroll to play 5/8 pushing Darren Lockyer to half back. This move would be designed to tighten the Storms attack with Carroll targeting Smith and Slater in a bid to shut them down before they get any momentum. The one area the Broncos should have an advantage is in the forward. Dave Taylor has been in devastating form and he carried a few of the other big guys along with him. If they can get on top of the Storm they could limit the effectiveness of Slater.
In the other game we have Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.08) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.94) and this is built to be a cracker.
I really do feel that this one could come down to the bounce of the ball. Parramatta have been on a wave of form for a long time now and while it’s hard to see it running out that is always a strong possibility. The Bulldogs on the other hand had the tragic news when Brett Kimmorley fractured his cheekbone only a month ago but the dogs stuck together for a gritty win over Newcastle and welcomed the week off to refresh and get some niggling injuries attended to. They will be ready and firing on all cylinders and if they aren’t blown off the park in the first half I think they would probably be able to grind the Eels down.
My interesting thought on this game is based around the NSWTAB who are set to lose a fortune if Parramatta wins the premiership as they have been heavily supported during their run into the finals. What this means is they have had to lower the price on Parramatta in this game so people don’t back them here, thus meaning if they lose they will lose on this game but their premiership money will be safe. However, if they win they will at least get some money back on the fact people are backing the Dogs. What this means is that the Bulldogs are over the odds at $2.08.
Bets for the Weekend
None so far. For the over under punters I would be thinking the Storm vs Broncos game to be low (Around the 36-40 point total). The Dogs vs Eels game could go either way. I could easily see this game in a tight grind with both teams priding themselves on tight defence, however, if one team decides to let the ball fly we could be on for a real spectacle.
September 11th – Rugby League (Running Total +$1365)
What a weekend of Rugby League we are in for as the final series begins tonight. I think I could easily have a bet in every game but have limited it to just a couple.
First Game – Melbourne Storm ($1.83) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.18) (Friday 7.45pm)
This game has everything going for it and should be the game of the round. It’s a pity it’s not on Sunday afternoon as I there is the potential that one of these sides could get a week off while the other disappears out of the competition (More about that to follow). This is also the Grand Final replay from last year where the Sea Eagles humiliated the Storm 40-0 and both sides have taken a win against the other on opposition territory in 2009.
All this means we are in for an arm wrestle tonight and the bounce of the ball and the ref’s whistle could determine this one. I was undecided on this one earlier in the week and would have stayed well clear until I heard changes in the forward packs. Melbourne have been boosted with Adam Blair escaping suspension (Not sure how he did that, haven’t seen a chicken wing like that since I stopped eating KFC) and Jeff Lima is tipped to return making the Storm pack look very formidable. Meanwhile the North Beaches are lacking in size after Glenn Hall withdrew from the side today (Family reasons that don’t need to posted on here) adding to the loss of Jason King meaning their forward pack is a little weak. Matt Orford has traditionally struggled when the Manly forwards don’t dominate and I expect that to be the case again tonight.
Second Game – Gold Coast Titans ($2.58) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.62) (Saturday 6.30pm)
This is the hardest game to read out of the 4 with the Bronco’s coming into form at the right part of the season while the Titan’s appear to have lost their edge. However, don’t be fooled by last week’s results. The Titan’s played a fired up Manly determined to finish in 5th position to give themselves the best chance to not be eliminated in the first week of the finals while the Titan’s had nothing to play for with a 3rd spot on offer for a win or a loss. Add to that a few injury concerns on the night and they never really looked interested. The Titan’s have a real Tigers (2005) feel about them and not just because Scotty Prince is at the helm. They’re new to the finals series and with a big crowd at Skilled Park I expect them to lift against their big brother. The odds on offer are also very juicy.
Third Game – Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.60) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.62) (Saturday 8.30pm)
A lot of hype has been surrounding the derailing of the Bulldogs chances for the premiership with the loss of in form halfback Brett Kimmorley. That flame was fuelled by an ordinary performance where several key defensive issues were uncovered when the Tigers blew past them in the final round. Meanwhile up the freeway the Newcastle Knights played their first sudden death game destroying the Panthers 35-0 at their home ground in Newcastle. Many tipsters are picking the upset result here but I am not surprised at all to see that no one seems overly keen to put their money where their mouth is with the Bulldogs still strong favourites to knock the knights out of the comp. The Bulldogs will definitely be more focused this week with the possibility of winning and giving Kimmorley an extra week to recover. Also the knights have to head to Sydney to take the dogs on their own turf something they have struggled at this year against all sides with a woeful away game record.
Fourth Game – St George Dragons ($1.49) vs Parramatta Eels ($3.00) (Sunday 4pm)
After the Dragons blew away the Eels last week the were quickly (and rightfully) installed as sole premiership favourites. They were clinical and menacing in dominating the Eels forwards while flying past their backs. We did tip the Dragons to put the cleaners through the Eels, however, I will be doing no such thing this weekend. I still think the Dragons will win but the competition will be hard fought and I expect the inclusion of Nathan Hindmarsh will add the much need glue to the Eels forward pack. The Eels also went into last week with a lot of hype surrounding their many wins and after a loss while be keen to gain some redemption against the premiership heavyweights.
Our Bets are:
$100 on Melbourne Storm to win by 1-12 points at $3.25
$100 on St George Dragons to win by 1-12 points at $3.35
September 8th – Daily M Medal
The Daily M Medal is on tonight and i am not amazed by the hype surrounding a Jarrod Hayne run away victory when you consider he did tear a number of teams apart in the back half of the season. However, what few are remembering is that the season goes for longer than 8 weeks and even if he polled well in every game (which is doubtful) he still had a 9 points to make up on Jonathon Thurston who lead on 17 points when the polls went silent.
Add to that Jamie Soward who was also in front of Hayne on 12 points, and Kurt Gidley on 14 points and i think the short price is a bit ridiculous. He is currently getting matched at $1.50.
We are laying Hayne at $1.50 for $200 (Liability $100).
September 6th – Rugby League (Running Total +$1465)
A great night for us on Friday with our predictions of a Dragons blowout proving to be true. Unfortunately the other game didn’t quite go our way with the Tigers throwing the ball away from the get go and 46 points were scored just going over our 40.5 point maximum.
Still a profit of $208 on the night
Today’s Games
First we have a great game that i think will live up to the hype in Newcastle vs Penrith. This game sees to evenly matched sides who both have the ability to really put on a show when they are on song. We can only hope they both do and we are in for some great viewing. Add to that the winner gets to play for another week by moving into the top 8 and going the finals series. If Newcastle win they play the Bulldogs next week and if Penrith win they play the Dragons.
I am not game to pick this one but i would imagine there could be alot of points in it. The 47.5 points for the over under set by SportsTAB is probably about right so i think that is better left alone.
In the other games we have Brisbane who should be too good for Canberra, but after Canberra thrashed them a few weeks ago its not worth betting on that either.
The last game i am reviewing is the Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys. I was amazed earlier in the week when the Roosters were installed as favourites. I did say last week the Cowboys had nothing to play for and will hang their boots up against the Broncos but they proved me wrong by really getting stuck in there and by all acocunts were pretty unlucky to lose. That tells me they are switched on and keen to finish the year off strong. Meanwhile the Roosters have been nothing short of ordinary in the past couple of weeks (If not the entire year) and i don’t think the fact that its Craig Fitzgibbon and Brad Fittler’s last games and the Wooden Spoon on the line can possibly help them get over the line here. Unfortunately for me some of the big punters noticed this miss-price and have loaded up and the Cowboys have gone from outsiders to favourites and leaves small options to make good money. Although i think the Cowboys really could put a cricket score on here but the fact that the Roosters could start well puts me off that. Insteaed i am going for a safer bet in North Queensland leading at Half Time and going on to win.
$200 on the Cowboys Half / Full double at $2.40 on Betfair
Results
The Half/Full double has stitched us up and i should have listened to myself a little closer. I recieved a number of emails after posting about the thoughts of doing a Roosters / NQLD Half / Full double since i had stated the Rooster do in fact start well. I wish i had’ve changed my bet as they cleaned up with the Roosters leading 16-6 at Half Time before being blown away in the second half Cowboys winning by 16 points.
September 4th – Rugby League
What a cracker of a match we were set to have tonight. In fact i hate to be the spoil sport but i think the match has lost a lot of its shine with the loss of Parramatta’s heart in Nathan Hindmarsh. I’m definitely not saying that the Eels are a one man team but i already was going to back St George based on the fact they are well due to win and had a real wake up call last weekend. Add to that the fact that the Eels haven’t really beaten anyone of note in the past 6 weeks and i think some people are getting a little carried away just because when they throw the ball around it looks impressive. Put it this was if the Eels win tonight i declare them definite threats to the title (About 3 weeks behind everyone else it seems), however, if they lose this week i expect them to be waving goodbye after the first week of the finals.
The Dragons on the other side have hit a small speedhump but really had not much to play for. Sure you can argue the minor premiership is important but i really don’t think that is as motivating as being the end of your season. I think they are well aware if they lose this week they will face a very tough battle against Parramatta, Brisbane or Manly next week which would not be ideal.
I’m taking the $200 on the Half Time / Full Time Double at the tasty odds of $2.54 on Betfair.
In the other game tonight we have the Bulldogs up against West Tigers and i think this match is shaping as a real cracker. The Tigers are hell bent on finishing the year strong after losing some crucial games and missing the finals. The Bulldogs are attempting to come to terms with needing to win without Kimmorley who injured himself last weekend. Because of this i am expecting what it appears no one else is and thats a hard grinding match fought mostly between the big men up the middle. The Bulldogs and Tigers both have flashy backlines but i think both sides will play tight and only show flair in the Red-Zone (Oppositions 20m line).
I’m going $100 on under 40.5 points at $3.00 on Betfair
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