April 9th – NRL Round 5 Preview and Bets
Week 5 in the NRL and there are some interesting prices on offer for us this weekend.
Friday night sees ST GEORGE ($1.12) take on the wounded BRISBANE BRONCO’S ($6.75) and all signs point to a Dragons victory. The only thing stopping jumping on the Dragons 13+ again is price ($1.48) and the record that teams have after playing Melbourne the week before.
The 2nd match of the night is much more appealing with the GOLD COAST TITANS ($2.60) taking on the MELBOURNE STORM ($1.52). It’s hard to see why The Storm are such generous odds after dismantling the 2nd favourites for the premiership in the Dragons last weekend. Meanwhile the Titans looked like a lost ship without Scott Prince at the helm. Prince is out again this weekend and I can see the same thing happening again.
Saturday night starts with SOUTH SYDNEY ($1.47) taking on the NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS ($2.75) and first signs point to a score fest with defence not a huge concern for either team. South’s were devastating against the Bulldogs last weekend and if there forward pack gets rolling this could get ugly. The knights meanwhile had a Jekyll and Hyde performance allowing the Panthers to storm home over the top for a big win after the Knights looked home and hosed at half-time. I’m going to leave betting on this match but I am tempted by the South 1-12 point win ($2.90) and assuming the weather holds getting on overs for total points.
I cannot believe the price of the BULLDOGS ($1.38) taking on the WARRIORS ($3.15) as I feel this match is a lot closer than that. The key indicator is what teams turn up to play. The Dogs admittedly just walked into a white hot South’s side last weekend while the Warriors were average at best against the Sea Eagles. No interest in betting here for me.
The final match of Saturday night is the COWBOYS ($1.77) taking on the WESTS TIGERS ($2.08) and although you never know which Tigers team will show up I was very impressed with the Cowboys last weekend when they finally gelled against the Titans. Jonathon Thurston found a great supporter in young gun Robert Thompson and I think with their massive forward pack they are going to make a real run at the premiership this year and could be a real bolter (Currently $27).
The remaining 3 games on Sunday and Monday have no interest for me at all in MANLY ($1.29) vs the SHARKS ($3.70), PENRITH PANTHERS ($1.80) taking on the ROOSTERS ($2.05) and finally PARRAMATTA EELS ($1.35) vs the CANBERRA RAIDERS ($3.30)
Our bets are:
MELBOURNE STORM to beat the Gold Coast Titans by 13+ at $2.90 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
Nth QLD COWBOYS to beat the Wests Tigers at $1.77 (Sports Managed Fund 15% Bet)
March 25th – NRL Round 3 Preview and Bets
I will post the occasional NRL Round preview on the website but the majority will be saved purely for the TopPunter subscribers. Remeber at all times you can sign up for the the FREE month and get your hands on all the Sports and Horse racing tips for FREE!
Round 3 gets under way with the Wests Tigers ($2.35) taking on the Parramatta Eels ($1.60) and I think they have got the market about right. I liked the look of the Tigers after round one but got up to their old tricks in round 2 letting in 44 points against a resurgent Sydney Roosters side. With attacking power all over the field for the Eels and Tigers this is likely to be a similar score line and I would be backing overs for Total Points If the bar is set at 45 points or less. I would’ve been tempted to take the $2.35 about the Tigers had they played their home game at Leichardt or Campbelltown where there record is much stronger. The Sydney Football Stadium will not intimidate the Eels and in fact they may end up out supported.
It’s very hard to back against the St George / Illawarra Dragons ($1.33) to beat the North Queensland Cowboys ($3.30) but I really don’t like taking skinny odds so early in the season. However, the fact the Cowboys are away from home and the Dragons have been very clinical again this year it’s hard to see any other result. In fact giving the 9.5 points start away for a $1.91 payout looks like a very strong option especially when you consider that the strong defensive centre in Matt Cooper returns this week to shore up their back line.
Penrith Panthers ($2.05) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.78), Manly Sea Eagles ($1.62) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.30) and Gold Coast Titans ($1.28) vs Canberra Raiders ($3.65) are big passes with no value in odds.
I was really shocked to see the difference in odds between the Brisbane Broncos ($1.52) vs the New Zealand Warriors ($2.55) as I think the Warriors are much better than that. Although only playing the weak Cronulla Sharks team at home last weekend they were fairly clinical in putting their opponent away when many teams have struggled to do so against the Sharks in recent times. The Bronco’s meanwhile have been ordinary in their first 2 encounters with a come from behind win against the lowly Cowboys before struggling big time in losing to the Raiders last weekend. Warriors the best value bet for the weekend.
I find the next match intriguing between the Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.91) against the Sydney Roosters ($1.91). Betting says that these 2 are evenly matched but the Roosters are undefeated and gelling like a good team should whilst the Dogs are struggling with combinations and are starting worse than Belle du Jour in the 2000 Golden Slipper. However, the dogs have shown glimpses of what they can offer and would be very happy to be back at home where they had a formidable record last season. Tempting to jump on the Dogs but we’ll leave it for now.
Not interested in the battle of the cellar dwellers in Cronulla Sharks ($2.08) against the South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.75) although it is worth mentioning that the Sharks record at home on a Monday night is alot better than any other location or time of day.
Bets for the Weekend are:
ST GEORGE / ILLAWARA DRAGONS to beat the North QLD Cowboys by more than 10 points at $1.91 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% win)
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS to beat the Brisbane Broncos head to head at $2.55 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
September 22nd – Rugby League (Running Total +$1165)
I did get a few emails asking my opinion on last weekend’s games and I gladly gave them out. I didn’t post anything as I felt the Parramatta game was almost a foregone conclusion but the price wasn’t there to bet and I felt the Dragons and Broncos was a lottery and I wouldn’t want to have swayed anyone in either way.
To be honest a week has gone by and not much has changed. However, I have some interesting thoughts on the Parramatta vs Bulldogs game. As always I welcome return emails giving you me your opinion. I am always interested to hear other people’s opinions any why. With knowledge comes fortune!
Firstly we’ll look at the Melbourne Storm ($1.43) vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.30) game to be held on Saturday Night in Melbourne.
The odds tell you that this is all but a foregone conclusion and I’m sorry to say that I can’t really sway you against that. Melbourne have a formidable record at Etihad Stadium lead by Billy Slater who has 3 hatricks (Including 1 four try haul) at the ground and the team always seems to play well when he is on fire. Greg Inglis also showed us why he is so important a fortnight ago when dominating the Sea Eagles out wide.
The price is again a little skinny for me to be jumping on board but when you consider that Brisbane, who would have been doing it tough anyway, are now without their halfback it is all but impossible to see them getting home. I’d expect Tonie Carroll to play 5/8 pushing Darren Lockyer to half back. This move would be designed to tighten the Storms attack with Carroll targeting Smith and Slater in a bid to shut them down before they get any momentum. The one area the Broncos should have an advantage is in the forward. Dave Taylor has been in devastating form and he carried a few of the other big guys along with him. If they can get on top of the Storm they could limit the effectiveness of Slater.
In the other game we have Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.08) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.94) and this is built to be a cracker.
I really do feel that this one could come down to the bounce of the ball. Parramatta have been on a wave of form for a long time now and while it’s hard to see it running out that is always a strong possibility. The Bulldogs on the other hand had the tragic news when Brett Kimmorley fractured his cheekbone only a month ago but the dogs stuck together for a gritty win over Newcastle and welcomed the week off to refresh and get some niggling injuries attended to. They will be ready and firing on all cylinders and if they aren’t blown off the park in the first half I think they would probably be able to grind the Eels down.
My interesting thought on this game is based around the NSWTAB who are set to lose a fortune if Parramatta wins the premiership as they have been heavily supported during their run into the finals. What this means is they have had to lower the price on Parramatta in this game so people don’t back them here, thus meaning if they lose they will lose on this game but their premiership money will be safe. However, if they win they will at least get some money back on the fact people are backing the Dogs. What this means is that the Bulldogs are over the odds at $2.08.
Bets for the Weekend
None so far. For the over under punters I would be thinking the Storm vs Broncos game to be low (Around the 36-40 point total). The Dogs vs Eels game could go either way. I could easily see this game in a tight grind with both teams priding themselves on tight defence, however, if one team decides to let the ball fly we could be on for a real spectacle.
September 11th – Rugby League (Running Total +$1365)
What a weekend of Rugby League we are in for as the final series begins tonight. I think I could easily have a bet in every game but have limited it to just a couple.
First Game – Melbourne Storm ($1.83) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.18) (Friday 7.45pm)
This game has everything going for it and should be the game of the round. It’s a pity it’s not on Sunday afternoon as I there is the potential that one of these sides could get a week off while the other disappears out of the competition (More about that to follow). This is also the Grand Final replay from last year where the Sea Eagles humiliated the Storm 40-0 and both sides have taken a win against the other on opposition territory in 2009.
All this means we are in for an arm wrestle tonight and the bounce of the ball and the ref’s whistle could determine this one. I was undecided on this one earlier in the week and would have stayed well clear until I heard changes in the forward packs. Melbourne have been boosted with Adam Blair escaping suspension (Not sure how he did that, haven’t seen a chicken wing like that since I stopped eating KFC) and Jeff Lima is tipped to return making the Storm pack look very formidable. Meanwhile the North Beaches are lacking in size after Glenn Hall withdrew from the side today (Family reasons that don’t need to posted on here) adding to the loss of Jason King meaning their forward pack is a little weak. Matt Orford has traditionally struggled when the Manly forwards don’t dominate and I expect that to be the case again tonight.
Second Game – Gold Coast Titans ($2.58) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.62) (Saturday 6.30pm)
This is the hardest game to read out of the 4 with the Bronco’s coming into form at the right part of the season while the Titan’s appear to have lost their edge. However, don’t be fooled by last week’s results. The Titan’s played a fired up Manly determined to finish in 5th position to give themselves the best chance to not be eliminated in the first week of the finals while the Titan’s had nothing to play for with a 3rd spot on offer for a win or a loss. Add to that a few injury concerns on the night and they never really looked interested. The Titan’s have a real Tigers (2005) feel about them and not just because Scotty Prince is at the helm. They’re new to the finals series and with a big crowd at Skilled Park I expect them to lift against their big brother. The odds on offer are also very juicy.
Third Game – Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.60) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.62) (Saturday 8.30pm)
A lot of hype has been surrounding the derailing of the Bulldogs chances for the premiership with the loss of in form halfback Brett Kimmorley. That flame was fuelled by an ordinary performance where several key defensive issues were uncovered when the Tigers blew past them in the final round. Meanwhile up the freeway the Newcastle Knights played their first sudden death game destroying the Panthers 35-0 at their home ground in Newcastle. Many tipsters are picking the upset result here but I am not surprised at all to see that no one seems overly keen to put their money where their mouth is with the Bulldogs still strong favourites to knock the knights out of the comp. The Bulldogs will definitely be more focused this week with the possibility of winning and giving Kimmorley an extra week to recover. Also the knights have to head to Sydney to take the dogs on their own turf something they have struggled at this year against all sides with a woeful away game record.
Fourth Game – St George Dragons ($1.49) vs Parramatta Eels ($3.00) (Sunday 4pm)
After the Dragons blew away the Eels last week the were quickly (and rightfully) installed as sole premiership favourites. They were clinical and menacing in dominating the Eels forwards while flying past their backs. We did tip the Dragons to put the cleaners through the Eels, however, I will be doing no such thing this weekend. I still think the Dragons will win but the competition will be hard fought and I expect the inclusion of Nathan Hindmarsh will add the much need glue to the Eels forward pack. The Eels also went into last week with a lot of hype surrounding their many wins and after a loss while be keen to gain some redemption against the premiership heavyweights.
Our Bets are:
$100 on Melbourne Storm to win by 1-12 points at $3.25
$100 on St George Dragons to win by 1-12 points at $3.35
September 8th – Daily M Medal
The Daily M Medal is on tonight and i am not amazed by the hype surrounding a Jarrod Hayne run away victory when you consider he did tear a number of teams apart in the back half of the season. However, what few are remembering is that the season goes for longer than 8 weeks and even if he polled well in every game (which is doubtful) he still had a 9 points to make up on Jonathon Thurston who lead on 17 points when the polls went silent.
Add to that Jamie Soward who was also in front of Hayne on 12 points, and Kurt Gidley on 14 points and i think the short price is a bit ridiculous. He is currently getting matched at $1.50.
We are laying Hayne at $1.50 for $200 (Liability $100).
September 6th – Rugby League (Running Total +$1465)
A great night for us on Friday with our predictions of a Dragons blowout proving to be true. Unfortunately the other game didn’t quite go our way with the Tigers throwing the ball away from the get go and 46 points were scored just going over our 40.5 point maximum.
Still a profit of $208 on the night
Today’s Games
First we have a great game that i think will live up to the hype in Newcastle vs Penrith. This game sees to evenly matched sides who both have the ability to really put on a show when they are on song. We can only hope they both do and we are in for some great viewing. Add to that the winner gets to play for another week by moving into the top 8 and going the finals series. If Newcastle win they play the Bulldogs next week and if Penrith win they play the Dragons.
I am not game to pick this one but i would imagine there could be alot of points in it. The 47.5 points for the over under set by SportsTAB is probably about right so i think that is better left alone.
In the other games we have Brisbane who should be too good for Canberra, but after Canberra thrashed them a few weeks ago its not worth betting on that either.
The last game i am reviewing is the Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys. I was amazed earlier in the week when the Roosters were installed as favourites. I did say last week the Cowboys had nothing to play for and will hang their boots up against the Broncos but they proved me wrong by really getting stuck in there and by all acocunts were pretty unlucky to lose. That tells me they are switched on and keen to finish the year off strong. Meanwhile the Roosters have been nothing short of ordinary in the past couple of weeks (If not the entire year) and i don’t think the fact that its Craig Fitzgibbon and Brad Fittler’s last games and the Wooden Spoon on the line can possibly help them get over the line here. Unfortunately for me some of the big punters noticed this miss-price and have loaded up and the Cowboys have gone from outsiders to favourites and leaves small options to make good money. Although i think the Cowboys really could put a cricket score on here but the fact that the Roosters could start well puts me off that. Insteaed i am going for a safer bet in North Queensland leading at Half Time and going on to win.
$200 on the Cowboys Half / Full double at $2.40 on Betfair
Results
The Half/Full double has stitched us up and i should have listened to myself a little closer. I recieved a number of emails after posting about the thoughts of doing a Roosters / NQLD Half / Full double since i had stated the Rooster do in fact start well. I wish i had’ve changed my bet as they cleaned up with the Roosters leading 16-6 at Half Time before being blown away in the second half Cowboys winning by 16 points.
September 4th – Rugby League
What a cracker of a match we were set to have tonight. In fact i hate to be the spoil sport but i think the match has lost a lot of its shine with the loss of Parramatta’s heart in Nathan Hindmarsh. I’m definitely not saying that the Eels are a one man team but i already was going to back St George based on the fact they are well due to win and had a real wake up call last weekend. Add to that the fact that the Eels haven’t really beaten anyone of note in the past 6 weeks and i think some people are getting a little carried away just because when they throw the ball around it looks impressive. Put it this was if the Eels win tonight i declare them definite threats to the title (About 3 weeks behind everyone else it seems), however, if they lose this week i expect them to be waving goodbye after the first week of the finals.
The Dragons on the other side have hit a small speedhump but really had not much to play for. Sure you can argue the minor premiership is important but i really don’t think that is as motivating as being the end of your season. I think they are well aware if they lose this week they will face a very tough battle against Parramatta, Brisbane or Manly next week which would not be ideal.
I’m taking the $200 on the Half Time / Full Time Double at the tasty odds of $2.54 on Betfair.
In the other game tonight we have the Bulldogs up against West Tigers and i think this match is shaping as a real cracker. The Tigers are hell bent on finishing the year strong after losing some crucial games and missing the finals. The Bulldogs are attempting to come to terms with needing to win without Kimmorley who injured himself last weekend. Because of this i am expecting what it appears no one else is and thats a hard grinding match fought mostly between the big men up the middle. The Bulldogs and Tigers both have flashy backlines but i think both sides will play tight and only show flair in the Red-Zone (Oppositions 20m line).
I’m going $100 on under 40.5 points at $3.00 on Betfair
September 1st – Rugby League (Running Total +$1457)
We were incredibly unlucky this weekend missing out on cleaning up by 0.5 a point in the Bronco’s game
We backed the Bronco’s -6.5 points and they only won by 6 (16-10) against the Cowboys who showed alot mre ticker than i expected.
We were then in little trouble with the Storm cruising to a win of the hapless Roosters easily covering the 22.5 points head start. Then the Sharks deserved to beat Manly when a number of dodgy refereeing decisions cost them the game, however, they comfortably were inside the 23.5 points start we backed them for.
Total loss on the weekend -$27 (That half point cost us a $1052 profit! Ouch!)
August 27th – Rugby League (Running Total +$1484)
We have a few early bets in the NRL this week as i feel there are a couple of markets a little bit off. For this i have gone to Sportsbet as they offer some great multi-betting incentives plus decent odds. *Also if you haven’t already joined you get $50 free for signing up with no deposit required (Why not use it for this multi??)
First we look at Friday nights game where the Brisbane Broncos take on their little brothers the North Queensland Cowboys and at first glance many would say this will be a tight tussle with plenty of passion. However, after last weekend the tables turned and the Cowboys finals chances have taken a huge hit while the Broncos can all but secure a spot with a good win here. Add the doubt surrounding Matt Bowen and the Broncos look to be good things on paper. I am thinking the $1.91 minus 6.5 points start looks very generous.
Second game I look at is the Melbourne Storm against the Sydney Roosters. Again the Storm started to show signs of a recovery with a game performance against Manly. Greg Inglis back in the team after being cleared to play and they should go points crazy. Meanwhile the Rooster were ordinary at best against the Dogs who barely got out of second gear winning by over 20 points. The 22.5 points head start seems like a lot but i wouldn’t be surprised to see that gone by half time.
The third game i like is the Manly Sea Eagles against the Cronulla Sharks. Manly loomed as strong premiership contenders a number of weeks ago after beating the dogs and getting on a roll but recent weeks have said to me they are a little off their game again and i think the addition of Brett Stewart after so long out of the game might disrupt their backline which has been going well in recent weeks. Jamie Lyon is also out with injury this week and will be a huge loss. Meanwhile the Sharks have really only been “ordinary” in a couple of games and for most of the time have competed against all teams but lacked that bit of class to win games. They rarely get blown away and the 23.5 points start offered by Sportsbet is ridiculous.
So my bets are
$200 on the Broncos -6.5 points start against the Cowboys at $1.91
$200 on the Storm -22.5 points start against the Roosters at $1.91
$100 on the Sharks +23.5 points start against the Sea Eagles at $1.91
$100 on the multi of all 3 results at $6.97
August 21st – Rugby League
This weekend is shaping as one of the most important round in the last 10 years with teams able to go from 5th to 12th with a win or a loss. Because of that i am predicting some tight results and would strongly encourage those who like the unders / overs total points to hit the unders as most of the big guns will focus on defence as this is the key to winning semi-final football.
I am looking at something a little differently this weekend with a 4 leg Parlay. These can be done on most betting sites but unfortunately not betfair where the odds are at their best. Basically a Parlay allows you to only hit 2 winners and still get some return, however, if you hit all 4 it is raining cash! For more information on how it works just flick me an email and i’ll explain.
We are looking at the TriBet option and selecting all games to be won by either team under 6.5 points.
The games i have selected are St George Dragons vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.40), Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels ($3.00), Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.75) and NZ Warriors vs Canberra Raiders ($2.70)
Total Cost for $1 unit is $11 so we’ll have $10 units ($110 outlayed). Potential win if we get all 4 is $2203.50 (Odds courtesy of IASBet)
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