June 22nd – World Cup Day 12
What a night of football and for those who at least watched the early game you would’ve seen the goal fest put on by Portugal in their 7-0 romping of North Korea. We did predict there would be some goals in this match but no one thought there would be that many. There were some good goals but really there was some sloppy unorganised defence for much of it. In the 2nd game we were again on the money with a very tight game with few real chances and the very strong defence of Chile held strong for a 1-0 win over Switzerland. In the final game Spain did what they had to against Honduras for a 2-0 victory including what I believe is the goal of the tournament so far from David Villa. Those results set up some very interesting last round clashes and equally important Round of 16 matches. Whoever finishes top of Group G (Brazil or Portugal, they play each other next round) plays the 2nd place finisher in Group H (It could be Spain, Switzerland or Chile).
Group A kicks us off in tonight’s matches and they are very interesting. I don’t mean to be to think the worst of teams but surely a draw is the only result in the first game. MEXICO ($3.60) meets URUGUAY ($4.33) and if they draw both teams advance to the next round. A loss for either team means that If FRANCE ($2.25) beats SOUTH AFRICA ($3.20) and picks up the goal difference (currently 4 on Mexico and 5 on Uruguay) then they would pinch 2nd place. The only real incentive is for Mexico who would finish in 2nd and most likely meet Argentina in the Round of 16 whereas Uruguay would face a much easier task of either Greece or South Korea. Uruguay have been involved in match fixing before and although I am not accusing them of that they know the importance of certain results and it’s no surprise that the draw is favourite in this match at $1.80.
Group B hosts the 2nd group of matches tonight and GREECE ($6.50) has its tournament on the line against ARGENTINA ($1.57). Greece sits on 3 points on the ladder equal with SOUTH KOREA ($2.50) who meet NIGERIA ($2.80). If Greece loses to Argentina, which is very likely considering their form, then they would have to hope for Nigeria upsetting South Korea. Greece’s best chance is probably to force a draw against Argentina and hope that Nigeria can upset South Korea.
Our bets tonight are:
UNDER 1.5 GOALS Uruguay vs Mexico at $2.05 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
FRANCE to beat South Africa at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
OVER 2.5 GOALS South Korea vs Nigeria at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 21st – World Cup Day 11
Three top games last night and some teams showed their true colours. First up Paraguay were strong in their 2-0 defeat of Slovakia and they could be a real nuisance for teams in the later rounds and I’d expect them to qualify now. Italy came up against a spirited and tight New Zealand and only got home for a 1-1 draw thanks to a penalty. New Zealand showed true grit and determination when it counted and it was great to watch. Finally Brazil put in a really solid performance to win 3-1 against the Ivory Coast and confirm their spot in the 2nd round.
For tonight’s matches we have PORTUGAL ($1.36) needing to show their true colours against NORTH KOREA ($10.00). In the 1st round Portugal squandered numerous scoring opportunities against the Ivory Coast ending in a 0-0 draw which really puts them under pressure here. I’d expect them to get things moving here and wouldn’t surprise if Christiano Ronaldo opens the scoring to get them moving. The 2nd match is very interesting with CHILE ($2.25) vs SWITZERLAND ($3.40) and I think the prices are a little off here. Chile was clinical in its first round 1-0 win over Honduras but it was hardly a dominant performance. Meanwhile Switzerland were under the pump from Spain the whole match but squeaked out a 1-0 win against the pre-tournament favourites. The winner of this match is guaranteed a 2nd round berth and a draw would mean a some very interesting final round matches. The last match sees SPAIN ($1.14) take on HONDURAS ($14.00) and this really should be a one sided affair. Although Spain were very disappointing in their first match they did create numerous scoring chances and it is only a matter of time before they start going in.
Our bets tonight are:
UNDER 1.5 GOALS Chile vs Switzerland at $2.50 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
OVER 2.5 GOALS Portugal vs North Korea at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 20th – World Cup Day 10
In a word gutted describes my feeling at the end of the Australia vs Ghana game last night but they only have themselves to blame. Aside from the red card and ensuing penalty the fact was the ball should never have gotten as far as that player and he shouldn’t have been un marked in the box. The Aussies also had 2 golden opportunities to score the winner in the final minutes of the game too. Holland may not have looked pretty in their 1-0 win over Japan but they proved to me they are the real deal and did what they had to do. I didn’t catch the Denmark vs Cameroon game but by all reports Cameroon had their chances and took an early lead before letting the Danes back into the contest/ Eto’o then struck the wood work when looking for the winner before Denmark clinched it 2-1.
The first 2 matches of the night feature teams from Group E and they are very important as all 4 teams registered draws in their first round. PARAGUAY ($2.10) take on SLOVAKIA ($3.75) in the first and I think Paraguay need to assert themselves in this game. Normally known as a defensive team who preys on other teams weak moments they can’t rely on a draw in this game even though they play the lowly Nez Zealanders in the final game. I would expect them to press early trying for a 1-0 lead then going back to their natural game. ITALY ($1.22) have their fate in their own hands against NEW ZEALAND ($15.00) and you would expect them to prove a point here as well. New Zealand played with spirit in their first match against Slovakia but this is a much tougher task and I can’t see them getting any goals this time round. For the final match of the night BRAZIL ($1.70) are pitted at very high odds again COTE D’IVOIRE ($5.50). I can’t see why the Brazilians are so high a price as even though they only beat Korea 2-1 in the first round they did it in a canter. Meanwhile the Ivory Coast were lucky to hold Portugal to a 0-0 draw.
Our bets tonight are:
PARAGUAY to beat Slovakia at $2.10 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
BRAZIL to beat Cote d’Ivoire at $1.70 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
Over 5 Corners in the first half in the Paraguay vs Slovakia game at $2.25 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 19th – World Cup Day 9
We’ll get the review over and done with nice and early this morning after a shocking result last night. First up Germany were stunned by Serbia 1-0 which stomps on claims that they are title contenders this year. However, round 2 of matches has produced some similar results so far whereby teams who came into the tournament with high hopes and were disappointing in the first round and have produced results in the 2nd. In the same category would have to be Mexico and Greece and I’m sure there will be more out there. England’s campaign is in disarray after a dreadful 0-0 draw against a pretty average Algerian team. This leaves England needing a win in their final match against Slovenia to advance to the Round of 16. Slovenia through away a golden chance to be automatically qualified when they lead USA 2-0 at half time. Michael Bradley’s half time speech inspired the Americans into a spirited comeback that should have resulted in a 3-2 victory but the last minute goal was disallowed to end in a 2-2 draw. USA also has their own fate in their hands with a win over Algeria guaranteeing a 2nd round berth.
Tonight’s games area nightmare to try and pick. First up HOLLAND ($1.40) who were very clinical in their first round match take on JAPAN ($9.00) who upset Cameroon. A win for either team guarantees qualification so there will be a lot at stake here. I expect Holland to go about their business and win but the price is a little too skinny for me to get on. 2nd match of the night sees AUSTRALIA’S ($4.00) hopes on the line when they take on GHANA ($2.00) in a must win match. In fact if the Aussies can scratch together a win it’ll mean all 4 teams in Group D will have had 1 win and 1 loss and be all on 3 points making the final round matches very tense. If logic played any part then the Aussies are in trouble as Ghana beat Serbia who beat Germany who beat Australia. There seems to be some internal issues in the Aussie camp who is far from the tight unit that went deep in the 2006 tournament. The final match of the night see’s CAMEROON ($2.88) take on DENMARK ($2.50) and it’s a match that mixes contrasting styles. Cameroon likes to play attacking football while Denmark prefer to keep in their own half.
Our bets tonight are:
CAMEROON to beat Denmark at $2.88 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 18th – World Cup Day 8
Argentina asserted themselves as a real contender for the title last night winning its second game of the tournament in emphatic fashion 4-1 over South Korea. Meanwhile Greece who we’d mentioned was way over the odds at $4.00 in our preview overcame a game Nigeria to record a 2-1 victory and keep their hopes of advancing to the next round alive. The Final game for the night was the most satisfying with our tip to qualify for the Round of 16 Mexico putting France on the brink of elimination with a 2-0 victory.
To tonight’s games and we start with the clinical Germany ($1.60) set to keep their momentum going from their 1st round slaughter of Australia against Serbia ($6.00). Serbia didn’t show up at all in their first game against Ghana and I’d expect the Germans to take control and put themselves in a commanding position in Group D. Game 2 of the night sees the USA ($2.05) take on Slovenia ($3.80). Whilst the Americans were probably lucky to get a draw in their first round against England I would expect them to have a win here and put themselves in a strong position to qualify for the Round of 16. For the final game of the night / morning England ($1.25) will be looking for redemption against Algeria ($11.00) and I expect them to deliver in spades. Algeria will no doubt try and stifle them by playing a defensive game so it may take them a while to warm up and you may not get to see a 4 or 5 nil romping but I expect this performance to put them back on track and focused.
Our bets tonight are:
GERMANY to beat Serbia at $1.60 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
USA to beat Slovenia at $2.05 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
***The promotion below might be a great one to take advantage of. If you add England in as your 3rd leg you only need 2 of the 3 results to get up to be get your money back at the very least.
June 17th – World Cup Football Day 6
Biggest upset of the tournament so far happened last night with tournament favourites Spain going down 1-0 to a solid and unified Switzerland. Spain totally dominated possession in the first half but couldn’t seem to find any real chances and in the end the defensive minded Swiss took their opportunity when it came and got a very important 3 points. Spain now have their destiny in the hands of the Swiss who could finish top of the table and meaning Spain would only be fighting for 2nd place and a 2nd round match against Brazil. In the other games Chile did what it had to against Honduras with an early goal the only scoring for a 1-0 win whilst Uruguay followed up on our predictions from last night to score a resounding victory over hosts South Africa 3-0.
To tonight’s games and things really start to liven up and we have 3 great matches for viewing if you plan on getting a late night. First up Argentina ($1.44) take on South Korea ($8.00). Both teams had first round victories against Nigeria and Greece respectively and looked pretty confident doing so. In fact the Koreans upset the more fancied Greece that I had predicted to take the 2nd spot on the table so I’m a bit unsure how to read this game. A loss here for either team puts their head on the chopping block while a win assures qualification to the Round of 16 so there is a lot of play for. I would expect a fairly defensive game from both teams with counter attacking being the main form of offence. For the 2nd match of the night it’s do or die for both teams and nothing but a win will be good enough when Nigeria ($2.00) take on Greece ($4.00). At first glance of the odds I really want to back Greece as I was very confident on them going into the tournament but I guess it’s once bitten twice shy in that regard and maybe steering clear of the whole nest might be the way to play. I might put them in a multi with a few other teams for interests sake. The final match of the night / morning sees the biggest match of them all when France ($2.25) takes on Mexico ($3.40). both teams had disappointing results in their first round matches seeing them score draws which means that now Uruguay has come out and won their 2nd round match 3-0 they are both staring down the barrel of elimination. A loss here wouldn’t end their campaign but a severe dent, probably more so for Mexico. We already invested interest in this game through Mexico qualifying so I don’t really see the need to bet again here but a draw ($3.10) would be my most likely outcome. This would leave Mexico to play for their life against Uruguay whilst France would get to take on the lowly South Africans for a berth in the round of 16.
No bets tonight.
June 14th – World Cup Day Four
There will no doubt be a lot of sore and tired heads in Australia after their 4-0 thumping from Germany last night. We did say that Germany looked the far stronger side and the ageing Australian defensive might struggle to hold them out but few would’ve predicted the level of the thrashing.
To tonight’s games and I’m really keen to see if Holland can get off to a strong start in the tournament. They take on Denmark who are known to play a fairly defensive game but the Dutch side look strong and should win this one with ease. I’d be guessing 3-0. The second match of the night sees our outsider for the Top Goal scorer in Samuel Eto’o and if he is going to make a charge for that title he’ll need to have a strong performance tonight against Japan and hopefully put 2 goals in the back of the net. Cameroon should win this game and win well. 2-0 the pick. For the final game of the night I certainly wouldn’t want to stay up late for this one as its almost certainly going to be a defensive game. Paraguay like to play a fairly defensive game and as always Italy, who possess some brilliance in the midfield, choose not to use it most games and instead seem content on a risk free approach. I would think this could easily end in a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
Our Bets tonight are:
HOLLAND to lead at half time and go on and beat Denmark at $2.30 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
CAMEROON to beat Japan at $2.05 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
ITALY and PARAGUAY to have a DRAW at $3.20 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
June 13th – World Cup Football
What an interesting group of results last night with the Greeks very disappointing against a very upbeat and energise South Korea who now place themselves in the pole position to qualify in Group B with Nigeria going down to a solid Argentina who never really looked threaten and should’ve probably won 2-0. The main news this morning surrounds the horrendous goal let in by the England goalkeeper (Robert Green) giving the USA a very handy 1-1 draw. If you haven’t seen it, even if you aren’t a soccer follower, find a sports channel and standby cause it is the most embarrassing thing I’ve seen in World Cup Football. Why England didn’t go with the experienced David James i have no idea.
To tonight’s matches and it kicks off with a fairly uneventful match with Algeria taking on Slovenia. I’m leaning just towards Slovenia at the moment but not in a confident way. Both teams have a solid defensive core but no real attacking flair so I won’t be getting up early to watch this one but unders for total goals would be a good dig. The 2nd game of the night / morning sees Serbia take on Ghana and I’m really keen to see the hype around Serbia who have received strong support to be the 2nd team to qualify from Pool C. Ghana are a flashy side who play with their hearts on their sleeves so if Serbia don’t turn up defensively they will light up the back of the net. Probably a good game to watch as a prequel to the Germany Australia game. As I said in my original preview Germany should have the wood over Australia and their biggest enemy will be themselves. They are known to play a defensive style game which could play into the Australians hands who have it very light in front of goal but if Germany let them get close they do have a potent midfield who have plenty of scoring prowess. Alot of Australia’s fortunes surround their old and slow defence which is held together by one of the best goalkeepers in the world (Mark Schwarzer). Old and slow they may be but experience counts for a lot in these games and if they can stay tight the Aussies could surprise here and give themselves a shot at week 2, but I won’t be putting any of my money on it.
Our Bets tonight are:
No best tonight. I was tempted by a few odds. Algeria vs Slovenia under 1.5 goals at $2.50 on SportsBet or Slovenia vs Ghana over 2.5 goals at $2.50 on SportsBet but I’ll leave it alone tonight and just watch instead.
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June 11th – World Cup Football
I know some of you have already joined Betfair so I will include the price from Betfair and SportsBet in my previews, however, as I stated in my last review all Managed Fund Bets will be placed through SportsBet.
Ok the world cup begins today or for those of us in Australia early tomorrow morning. There are a couple of good looking bets for the group stage qualifiers and we have a couple of bets for the opening rounds as well. After doing my review I had a look at the draw and there is an interesting skew to the draw. All the big names that I would’ve rated the best chance to perform well here are drawn on the one side of the draw (assuming that finish top of their group). That being England, Holland and Brazil leaving only Spain on the other side. Assuming results go according to favourites (which is usually reasonably accurate in soccer), then Spain would have Italy in the Quarters and either Argentina or Germany in the Semis which is a much brighter prospect than those on the other side of the draw. The only down side to it all is the price. As the current European Champions they have been installed as favourites at $5.10 (Betfair), $5.00 (SportsBet). I still like the look of the Dutch side and think they could really give it a strong push this year. There biggest problem is that if they qualify at the top of their group they will most likely meet Brazil in the quarters then either France or England in the Semi’s which is a much tougher prospect. Holland is currently at $10.00 (Betfair) and $10.00 (SportsBet) so they represent much nicer value. Might be worth waiting for the first round of matches though to see if there are some upsets on the cards and some variations to the top of the group.
In the group qualifying I think there is a little bit of value in 2 teams. In Group A, Mexico looks a strong chance to go through with favourites France looking a little weak to me, Uruguay also only squeaked into the finals through a play-off once again and the very weak South Africa in the pool. At $1.99 (Betfair) and $1.80 on (SportsBet) they look superb value. In Group C, I am amazed at the good price of USA as I think this is a standout quinella. Currently USA are $1.80 (Betfair) and $1.70 (SportsBet).
To the individual games and I think we have some value in the total goals scored in the first couple of games. In the opening game Mexico takes on hosts South Africa and I can see a lot of goals coming out of the opening spectacle. South Africa haven’t been a regular fixture in world soccer and the innovative and sometimes brilliant Mexicans should be able to find plenty of holes in a defence that is sure to be nervous. Add to that the fact that the Mexicans don’t regard defensive as a key factor so they may also let in a goal as well. Over 2.5 goals is paying $2.60 (Betfair) and $2.38 on (SportsBet).
In the 2nd match on opening day France takes on Uruguay and both teams are struggling to find any rhythm in attack which makes me think this could turn into a real grind. France will fall back on what they know best which is a solid defensive game and the occasional counter attack. If they get a goal in front the wall will come up. Under 2.5 goals is paying $3.05 on (Betfair) and $2.75 on (SportsBet)
Our Bets so far are:
USA to qualify in Group C at $1.70 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 10% Bet)
MEXICO to qualify in Group A at $1.80 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
TOTAL GOALS OVER 2.5 in South Africa vs Mexico at $2.38 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
TOTAL GOALS UNDER 1.5 in France vs Uruguay at $2.75 on SportsBet (Sports Managed Fund 5% Bet)
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