July 18th – Tour de France (Running Total -$80)
Stage 13 went almost as expected with a breakaway of riders trying to grab some King of the Mountains (Polka Dot Jersey) points and our long shot on Brice Fiellu was right up there but faded slightly at the end finishing 3rd.
Both Head to Head bets won with Christian Vande Velde beating Vincenzo Nibali and David Moncoutie beating Franco Pelizotti over the line to give us a tidy profit of $220 on the night.
We also had a win with Thor Hushovd grabbing a high placing across the line to grab some good points in the Green Jersey which he now leads again. As expected Mark Cavendish was no where to be seen and really struggled over what was not regarded as a big climb.
Stage 14 heads back to the flats and gives Mark Cavendish another chance to add to his tally. However, against as in Stage 12 his team mates aren’t keen to do the chasing due to the huge stages that they will hit on Saturday night. Once again if a breakaway gets a good lead i find it hard to see if anyone will chase them down. Your warning should be the first sprint point after 34 kms. If Cavendish sprints for this then lay him for the overall win because he is clearly not going for it.
Tonight will be a day for people like Stuart O’Grady, Jens Vogt and Sandy Casar who will try and get in an early breakaway on a stage where most people are keen on resting
BRING ON THE ALPS TOMORROW!
Tour de France update!
Wow huge news from Lance Armstrong on Twitter with his Team Astana teammate Levi Leipheimer out of the tour after waking up with a broken wrist.
That is going to hurt both Armstrong and Contodor who will now have to work together to take on the rest. Andreas Kloden at times looked a little weak in the Pyrenees.
HUGE NEWS!
July 17th – Tour de France (Running Total -$300)
Stage 12
Well consider myself cooked. I tipped Mark Cavendish as the clear top sprinter at the start of the tour and he duly saluted in the first race getting us off to a great start. I then tried to think of reasons not to pick him and he then won 4 more flat stages. I finally realise my error and tip him again last night only to find that he never had any intention of competing. For those already registered with the premium service you got the sms immediately after the first sprint when Cavendish and Hushovd fought it out. This was a massive warning siren that they weren’t going to battle for the win and we layed off our bet for only a small loss. As the Premium service has not officially been launched i will record this as a loss but it is the perfect reason why we need that kind of service in place.
Stage 13
This has been labeled by many as the start of the real tour as we head towards the Alps in 2 days time. I’m not totally convinced of that as it is a fairly benign stage compared to what is to come later on. Whilst we have a Category 1 climb up the Col du Platzerwasel which is 8.7km in length at a gradient of 7.6% i think it is a little too far from the finish for the big guns to want to duke it out. Having said that i have been impressed that Cadel Evans and Frank Schlek even tried to escape last night showing they still think there is a chance to attack at any time. The one thing on the side of the contenders to Team Astana is that the tension in their camp has become public and you wonder if someone attacks whether they will hesitate in working out who is going to track them down. Lance Armstrong seems to be doing more of the work with his good mate Levi Leipheimmer by his side. Alberto Contador seems content to ride on his own and is clearly a rider who doesn’t value the advantage of having a good team by his side.
That said i think tonights stage will be battled by those hoping to wear the polka dot jersey. The big points are starting to come out and any one of a number of riders has signalled their intension to challenge for it. As Egoi Martinez ($90)and Franco Pellizotti ($22) challenged for the points last night and are sitting 1 and 2 and also Pierrick Fredrigo ($46) was on the attack in Stage 10 they may have burnt the petrol needed to charge for the big points on Stage 13. I’d be leaning towards Christophe Kern ($110), Brice Feillu (Price Unquoted)or Christophe Riblon (Price Unquoted) as the likely contenders for tonight.
There is also some good money for a few head to head bets tonight.
Christian Vande Velde to beat Vincenzo Nibali and
David Moncoutie to beat Franco Pelizotti
Both will be over $2 and we will be betting on these when the market settles.
July 16th – Cycling (Running Total -$100)
Stage 11 produced little excitement again as the riders roll across France on their way to the Alps. Mark Cavendish now has the record 8 wins and would love to crack it for one more win prior to the mountains so he can break double figures on the final stage on the Champs-Elysees so he really needs to strike tonight.
However, I am getting sick and tired of predicting that the stage doesn’t suit him but again it doesn’t really matter. The race has a number of small hills through it with five Category 4 and one Category 3 climbs plus an uphill finish. The peleton each time give his team enough help to catch the breakaway even though they know they will get beat, in fact the only time the breakaway wasn’t caught on the flat was when Team Columbia received no help.
The difference is this guy is just too good and with his team driving the train along with brilliant leadout man in Mark Renshaw he just can’t be beat. So we are going to back him again as he is at a nice price paying $2.40. I am still confident that come the Alps our man Thor Hushovd has more chance of getting enough sneaky points to take the points jersey again just like he did in the Pyrenees.
So we’ll get on the Cavendish train and be really confident with it:
$200 on Cavendish to win Stage 12 @ $2.40
July 15th – Tour de France (Running Total -$100)
Stage 10 saw the predictable happen with 3 of the 4 breakaway riders being Frenchman. Unfortunately the experiment by the racing officials to ban race radios for 2 stages at the tour this year failed miserably as the breakaway was kept in close to the peleton all day and never a hope of getting away and a thrilling chase back. Instead both sets of riders ambled there way along at no real pace and really was quite boring for the spectator.
We were hoping for some of the time trialers to breakaway in the final 20 kms but Team Columbia kept the pace up and didn’t allow any such thing to happen. Their man Mark Cavendish again won the stage taking his career total to 7 (Just one behind the record for an Englishman). Our pick in the points race, and current green jersey wearer Thor Hushovd sat comfortably behind Cavendish for second place to retain his jersey. I think we are sitting pretty here as Cavendish really struggled to get over the Pyrenees and is going to have a nightmare time in the first ride up the Alps. We will lay some of our bet off however with Hushovd shortening in.
Stage 11
This stage looks relatively harmless on first view but i think it is perfectly set up for a breakaway. The 2 key indicators that sugest this is a small category 4 climb 40 kms from the finish and some very small roads in the last couple of kilometres will make it hard for a peleton to gain the necessary speed to reel in the leaders. I would suggest once the breakaway group looks set (Usually after about 20 kms) to pick a couple of riders and stick with them. My advice is listen to the experts in Phil Ligget and Paul Sherwin who will give you the information on the lead pack as to who is the best sprinters or in the best form.
Now to our Sprinters. Thor Hushovd has firmed in to $1.88 with Cavendish struggling to get over the Pyrenees. Although i still feel this is a good bet i think we are crazy to not at least lay off our original investment just to be sure. We backed Hushovd after stage 1 for $100 at $8.40 ($740 in profit). We can now lay $100 at $1.88 (Liability $88) to only reduce our overall profit to $652 and we have got back our orginal investment of $100.
If anyone doesn’t understand what we have done here please email me at brad@toppunter.net and I can guide you through. This is a crutial part of punting and is a way of earning guaranteed profit
July 14th – Tour de France (Running Total -$100)
Stage 10
What a stage we are in for tonight even though there are no real hills just 3 category 4 climbs early on in the day. The interest comes in 2 ways. Firstly it is Bastille Day in France and the French riders usually try and do anything they can to get in a breakaway to steal a stage on their national day. Of the French riders i would lean towards our usual favourites in Cyril Dessel or Sylvain Chavenal. The second and more crutial surprise is the first of 2 days on the tour set out for no race radios. Most of the riders are angry at this happening as they believe the radios are vital for safety reasons (warning them of upcoming dangers like crashes etc). However, the purists will say it makes for a more exciting race as the peleton can’t just rely on their team telling them who is out in front and what is the time gap at each instant.
Although I feel that Mark Cavendish will be keen to keep any breakaway fairly close by and Team Columbia will work towards getting a win for the big man from Britan. I have a sneaking suspicion though this may set the race up for a sneak attack close to home as the pack will probably catch the breakaway alot earlier than they want. A rider like Cadel Evans could pinch a break close to home and be tough to run down (But this is unlikely). I am leaning towards a time trial specialist like David Millar, Gustav Larsson or maybe even Fabian Cancellara
July 12th – Tour de France (Running Total -$100)
Stage went as expected with a select group of riders making a breakaway that the main field weren’t that keen on running down. We had selected wisely and did have our selection Sandy Casar in that lead group of 4 but alas he was out sprinted to the line finishing 2nd.
Stage 9
Tonights stage is the last stage of the Pyrenees and features the great Col du Tourmalet which is a HC (High category) climb with the riders needing to climb a whopping 7.4% gradient for 17.1km’s (OUCH!)
The stage is set for a battle of the big guns with the likes of Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov needing to attack tonight to get some time back. No doubt Team Astana will have their big guns on the front driving out a crazy pace trying to counter this. Hard to really get a winner out of this. Its a tough climb and those who can handle it alone oustide of the main favourites would be someone like Frank Schlek, however, i would expect he will save himself for the second week to drag his brother Andy Schlek through the Alps.
I suggest just sitting back and watching the carnage. If someone does manage to escape you can bet they will have to take extreme risks on the decent with a 1800m drop to the finish. If you forced me to pick someone i’d lean towards Stehane Auge or Cyril Dessel who would be keen to make a charge for the King of the Mountains (Polka Dot) jersey.
With a day of rest set for tommorrow it’ll be game on tonight!
July 11th – Tour De France (Running Total -$100)
What a stage. Anyone who thought the big guns were going to sit back and wait till the later stages to attack were very wrong. Whilst the breakaway managed to hold on with a brilliant ride from Brice Feillu who held on strongly for his first win on the tour. Meanwhile the big guns started the attacks with Cadel Evans making the first charge only to be captured by Lance Armstrong. Then Andy Schlek had a go but was again caught by Team Astana this time, however, it was Alberto Contador who not only caught Schlek but powered past him grabbed some much needed time over his rivals.
Unfortunately for Contador he missed timed his finished and actually allowed one of the breakaway riders in Rinaldo Nocentini to grab the yellow jersey by 6 seconds in what is the biggest boilover of the tour so far. Team Astana are claiming to be very happy with that situation, playing team tactics to keep the weight of the yellow jersey off their backs and making other teams do the work at the front of the field.
Stage 8
Another mountain stage with 3 big climbs which may allow the contenders to battle it out again. However, I would imagine due to the long decent in to the finish that they will be content with just completing the stage. This leaves the door open to another breakaway but as always it is tough to find a winner. I would be leaning towards riders like Sandy Casar, David Moncoutie, Sebastian Lang or Juan Antonio Flecha.
July 10th – Tour de France – Stage 6 review and Stage 7 preview (Running Total -$100)
The tour went through a windy and wet Stage 6 which saw some of the more fancied riders attempt a breakaway early on. Included in this bunch was one Spanish rider (as predicted) in Amets Txurruka and also Sylvain Chavanel who we discussed yesterday as a regular person in a breakaway during the tour. I’m not sure what price he came in to but i’m sure you could have traded him as i suggested for a reasonable profit. Unfortunately the breakaway was swallowed up by the peleton inside the final 2km and it was on to the sprinters. Once again we fell just short with “not quoted” riders in Jose Rojas and Gerald Ciolek finishing 3rd and 4th.
The good news from the night for us was that Thor Hushovd won the stage and Mark Cavendish struggled with the uphill finish dropping to 16th. That all goes well for our overall selection of Hushovd for the Green Jersey (Sprinters/Points) who has now closed to just 1 point from Cavendish.
Because of this movement Hushovd has now come in to $3.10 to win the Green Jersey and we backed him for $100 at $8.40. (Potential Profit $740). I am tempted to lay off $100 at the $3.10 and still leave us $440 in a free bet, however, I feel we have the winning ticket and its worth holding on for a few more stages. Hushovd has climbed the mountains and Cavendish hasn’t, therefore tonight’s stage will be a huge test.
Stage 7
For a winner in Stage 7 I am looking at the big names. This will be the first big test for the GC (Yellow Jersey) riders and the tactics of the major teams will be watched with interest. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Andreas Kloden, Frank Schlek, Denis Menchov or Cadel Evans have a crack at this stage. These guys are desperate to make up for the minutes they have lost – Evans in particular who despite feeling good finds himself nearly 3 minutes behind! Had Mick Rogers not fallen in last nights stage I would think he may have been a possibility too. I can’t seperate any clear outstanding chance for this stage so I’ll leave the stage betting up to you.
July 9th – Tour de France (Running Total +$20)
Well the tour rolled on and one of its favourite son’s (Mainly because he’s french) Thomas Voeckler cracked it fora stage win. The man who once wore the Yellow Jersey for 10 days broke away with a group of riders in the first kilometre. Voeckler then broke away from the lead group with 5 km’s to go and held off the peleton that had at one stage closed to 39 seconds with 5 km’s to go and looked certain to swallow up the breakaway but in the end fell an agonising 7 seconds short. This was mainly due to the fact that no teams wanted to help Team Columbia bring Mark Cavendish another victory. Clearly the top sprinters realise that they are no chance of beating him and therefore there is no point giving him a chance at the major points for finishing first on the stage. As expected Cavendish was the first rider home from the peleton in 3rd place. Loss -$200 from last night
In tonights racing i would imagine anyone who got in a breakaway would not be chased down. Firstly i think the stage is not ideally placed for a sprinter and secondly i think Team Columbia will have a rest after being on the front of the pack for 3 big flat stages. Since we are heading into Barcenlona i would suggest having 5 small wages on a Spanish rider winning and hope we can jag a big prize. I would be shocked if one of the big Spanish names got in a breakaway so we’ll select some of the lesser names
$20 win for stage 6 on
Bingen Fernandez
Ruben Perez Moreno
Eduardo Gonzalo Ramirez
Alan Perez Lezuan
Juan Antonio Flecha
As of yet there aren’t any odds about but i will try and track some down and edit this before the start of tonights stage. Flecha will be lowest priced rider at around 40/1.
UPDATE: I have just noticed i can’t find any betting agency that is offering an extended market this year so i will need to alter the above bets. $20 on Jaun Antonio Flecha ($40) on Betfair and $100 on the NSW TAB option (42577) for “any other rider” this will cover us for not just the above riders but any other rider not mentioned in their list. If anyone knows of a site that offers a full list of riders please comment below.
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Meanwhile – I just wanted to explain Betfair and backing and laying a little. I’ve had some requests to explain it a little more.
I use Betfair all the time to back an early outside chance and then lay the same horse, team or athlete once their odds start to come in after a good run, an early win, or a change in odds. This will be useful in the Tour de France cycling: you can back someone for early on who you think might have a breakaway chance – then if they get in the breakaway with a solid lead and the peleton not chasing, the odds for your rider will come in, and from there you can lay off your bet to win money no matter if the rider wins, or loses. I’ve done this before with Sylvain Chauvanel during his time as a real breakaway rider and made some tidy profits.
Check out my Tennis bets on Thomas Berdych for another great example of how you can use backing and laying to your advantage.
Betfair is the best place on the web for this and for in-play betting:
